NRFI Results

Keider Montero's perfect 14-for-14 NRFI mark, with five straight clean first innings, is the kind of signal that screams quiet opening frame. The catch is Houston's bats, who plate a run in the first 38% of the time — third-most in MLB — and 39% against righties. That tension between Montero's spotless record and a dangerous Astros lineup leaves this one right at a 50/50 split.

Andrew Alvarez has kept the first inning clean in all four of his starts, and he draws a Baltimore lineup that scores in the opening frame just 22% of the time — and only 15% against lefties. Trevor Rogers brings his own 77% NRFI mark, though Washington's bats put up runs early at a 33% clip. The model nudges to 53% scoreless, basically a toss-up.

Nick Martinez has been nearly untouchable in opening frames, posting a 93% NRFI rate across 14 starts and holding the line in four of his last five. The catch is Zac Gallen on the other side, whose 40% NRFI mark and a single clean first in his last five starts drags this back toward even. With Tampa Bay's bats hot early but Arizona's quiet, the model's 49% scoreless read makes it a genuine coin flip.

Both starters are sitting on elite first-inning marks — Will Warren at 79% NRFI and Payton Tolle even higher at 82%, with Tolle perfect in his last five — which would normally scream NRFI. The catch is the Yankees' offense, MLB's best at scoring early and clicking at 54% against lefties like Tolle. That tension at hitter-friendly Fenway lands this right at a 50/50 split.

Zack Wheeler brings an elite 82% NRFI mark across 11 starts, and the Mets only put a run on the board in the first 27% of the time — both pointing toward a quiet opening frame on his side. The problem is the other dugout: Zach Thornton has just one big-league start to judge, and it ended with a first-inning run. That thin sample keeps this one a true coin flip.

Cantillo's 73% first-inning shutout rate over 15 starts is the cleanest edge here, but Seattle complicates it — the Mariners plate a run in the opening frame 36% of the time, fourth-most in MLB, and 40% against lefties like him. Castillo (67% NRFI) faces a Cleveland lineup that scores early just 23% of games, so the model lands almost dead even at 52%.

Pin much on Sandlin and you're working with almost nothing — two career starts, both with a first-inning run, but that's far too small to read into. Steven Cruz hasn't made a start yet either, so the pitching side is essentially a blank slate. Both lineups score in the first 31% of the time, which is right in the middle of the pack, leaving this a genuine coin flip.

Michael McGreevy walks into Busch Stadium riding a perfect 5-for-5 NRFI streak over his last five starts, and his 86% scoreless-first rate across 14 outings backs that up. Max Meyer's been a touch shakier at 3-of-5 lately, but the Cardinals' lineup scoring in the first just 30% of the time, and only 25% against righties, keeps both sides quiet. The model sees a near even split at 51%.