NRFI Results

Casey Legumina's spotless 100% NRFI mark comes from a single start, so there's almost nothing to lean on there for Tampa Bay. Seth Lugo splits the difference at 50% across 14 starts but has wobbled lately, allowing a first-inning run in four of his last five. With both lineups scoring in the first roughly a third of the time and the model nearly even at 47%, this one's a genuine toss-up.

Landen Roupp has been a first-inning wall for the Giants, posting an 80% NRFI mark across 15 starts and four scoreless first frames in his last five. The flip side is Jeffrey Springs, whose 47% NRFI rate and 2-of-5 recent run keep this from leaning clean, especially with Oakland's bats scoring in the first 31% of the time against righties. Spacious Oracle Park nudges it toward quiet, but it's a genuine toss-up.

Cristopher Sanchez brings an 80% NRFI mark into Washington and has held the line in four of his last five, but Cade Cavalli is the wobble here at just 67% with scoring allowed in three of his last five. The Phillies plate a first-inning run 34% of the time and a steeper 38% against righties, which is enough to keep this closer to even than the verdict's near-certain NRFI.

Both starters carry matching 67% first-inning shutdown rates over 15 outings, so the arms tilt this toward NRFI. The tension comes from Gore's recent dip — three clean firsts in his last five — and a Texas lineup that puts up runs in 26% of opening frames. With Gausman holding the Blue Jays steady against Toronto's quiet bats (16% vs lefties... err, righties), it's a genuine toss-up at 52%.

Cam Schlittler has been near-untouchable to open games, posting a 93% NRFI mark and holding the line in all five of his last five starts. The wild card is the other side: Connelly Early sits at just 54% NRFI and faces a Yankees lineup that scores first 38% of the time and lights up lefties at a 52% clip. With Fenway's 108 park factor, the model's 48% nudges below the market's 55%.