NRFI Results

Peter Lambert brings a tidy 73% first-inning NRFI mark into Rogers Centre, and Toronto's bats only put up a run in the opening frame 23% of the time — both reasons to lean scoreless. The hangup is Shane Bieber, who has no season starts to judge, while Houston's offense ranks 3rd in MLB at scoring early. That thin data leaves this a genuine coin flip at 50%.

Shane McClanahan has been an opening-frame wall for Tampa Bay, holding an 86% NRFI over 14 starts, which pulls hard toward a quiet first. The drag is Luinder Avila, whose 40% NRFI mark and run-scoring vibe in three of his last five starts keep this honest. The Rays' bat sits at just 50/50 — a genuine coin flip.

Casey Mize has been untouchable early, posting a clean 100% NRFI mark across 10 starts and five straight scoreless first frames at Comerica. The counterweight is Carlos Rodon, whose 57% NRFI rate is wobblier, plus a Yankees lineup that scores first 38% of the time — second-most in MLB. That split between Mize's dominance and New York's bats keeps this one a genuine coin-flip.

Sandy Alcantara has held the line in 73% of his 15 starts and four of his last five, giving Miami a solid edge against a Texas lineup that scores first only 27% of the time. The catch is Cal Quantrill, who has no starts logged yet — that blank slate is why the model sits at a near coin-flip 49% despite Alcantara's track record.

Jesus Luzardo brings a sterling 93% NRFI mark into Nationals Park, and he's been perfect in five straight first innings. The wrinkle is that the Phillies' bats counter on the other side — Philadelphia ranks 6th in MLB for first-inning scoring, though they dip to 30% against lefties like PJ Poulin. With the park running slightly hot at 102, this one balances out to a near coin flip.

Brandon Sproat's 82% NRFI rate over 11 starts is the loudest number on the board, and Nick Lodolo backs him up at 75% with both arms going 4-for-5 over their last five. So why a coin flip? Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor and the Brewers scoring early 33% of the time push back just enough to land the model at 49%.

Kyle Leahy has stranded the first inning in 77% of his 13 starts, easily the steadier arm here against an Arizona lineup that scores early just 27% of the time and a meager 25% versus righties. The catch is Eduardo Rodriguez, who's a true 50/50 in his 14 outings, and St. Louis hits LHPs in the first 47% of the time. That tension balances out — model and book both land at 49% NRFI.

Ryan Johnson's 0% NRFI rate looks alarming, but it's built on a single start — far too thin to mean much. Shane Baz brings a more honest 50% NRFI mark across 14 outings, though he's stumbled lately with just one clean first frame in his last five. With the Orioles' bats scoring in the opening inning only 22% of the time, this one tilts toward a true coin flip.

Robbie Ray brings the standout number here, posting a 77% first-inning shutout rate over 13 starts, and the Giants' bats only push a run across in the opening frame 23% of the time. The tension comes from Oakland's lineup, which scores in the 1st in 34% of games and 36% against righties like Civale, balancing this one toward a true coin flip at Oracle Park.