NRFI Results
First-inning leans for June 21, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
339-276
615 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
5-1 on 6 leans
NRFI 2-0 · YRFI 3-1
NRFI Leans
2
Eovaldi has kept the first frame scoreless in 62% of his 13 starts, and he's facing a Padres lineup that plates a first-inning run just 22% of the time — 27th in MLB. Wandy Peralta's lone-start sample makes his 100% NRFI mark hard to trust, but Texas only scores early 28% of the time, nudging this toward a quiet opening inning at Globe Life.
Payton Tolle has thrown a clean first frame in 80% of his ten starts, including all five of his last five, and Boston's offense backs that up by ranking dead last in first-inning scoring at just 18%. The wrinkle is Seattle's lineup, which plates a run in the opening inning 36% of the time, third-most in MLB, against Logan Gilbert's coin-flip 50% NRFI. The pitching tilts this toward NRFI, but the home bats keep it honest.
YRFI Leans
4
Bryce Elder's first-inning numbers stand out here — a 71% NRFI mark across 14 starts — but the math still tilts slightly toward a run crossing. The Brewers put up first-inning runs in 34% of their games and bump that to 35% against right-handers like Elder, and our model's 46% scoreless figure trails the book's 50%, nudging this toward YRFI.
Coors Field's 128 run factor is the loudest signal here, and Pittsburgh's bats lean into it — the Pirates score in the first 40% of the time, tops in MLB, and 44% against righties like Lorenzen. Jones and Lorenzen both carry solid NRFI marks, but the model still pegs first-inning scoring at 61% in this altitude. The lean is YRFI.
Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor inflates everything here, and Jack Perkins hasn't found his footing yet—just a 33% NRFI clip with a first-inning run in two of his last three starts. The Angels score in the opening frame 37% of the time against righties, and while Reid Detmers brings a sturdy 79% NRFI, this lineup-and-ballpark mix tilts toward an early run.
David Peterson is the soft spot here, posting first-inning runs in five of his last six starts and just a 17% NRFI mark over six outings. Zack Wheeler offers a counterweight at 80% NRFI, but the Phillies plate a run in the first 35% of the time — eighth-most in baseball — which is why the model nudges this toward YRFI at 46% scoreless.
Coin Flips
8
Chase Burns brings a sterling 92% first-inning NRFI rate across 13 starts into the Bronx, which is exactly why this lands as a true coin flip. The counterweight is a Yankees lineup that plates a first-inning run in 39% of games — second-most in MLB, though just 32% against righties. Elmer Rodriguez (67% NRFI in three starts) is the wild card, leaving the model right at 50%.
Keider Montero hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his 13 starts, and Davis Martin isn't far behind at 85% NRFI with five straight clean openers. The catch is that Detroit's bats put up a first-inning run 34% of the time, 11th-most in MLB, which keeps this from being a clear NRFI. At 52%, it's essentially a coin flip.
Logan Webb has been a first-inning wall, posting a 91% NRFI rate over 11 starts and going clean in all five of his last outings. The tension comes from Ryan Gusto's shakier 67% NRFI mark and a Miami lineup that plates a run in the first 36% of the time, fourth-most in MLB. That clash leaves the model right at a 51% coin flip.
Andrew Alvarez has kept the first inning clean in all three of his starts, and Nick Martinez brings a 92% NRFI rate across 13 outings — strong arms on both sides. The catch is that Tampa Bay puts runners across in the opening frame 35% of the time, seventh-most in MLB. With the model at 52% scoreless against the book's 51%, this one's basically a coin flip.
Slade Cecconi has been money in the opening frame, posting a 71% NRFI mark and going scoreless in the first across all five of his last starts. The flip side is Kai-Wei Teng, sitting at just 50% NRFI and squaring off against a Houston-friendly draw — though the Astros' bats put up first-inning runs in 35% of games, fifth-most in MLB. With Cleveland's offense quiet (25%), it's a genuine coin flip at 48%.
Stephen Kolek's been a brick wall to open games for the Royals, posting an 88% NRFI clip across his eight starts, and the Cardinals only push a run across in the first 25% of the time against right-handers. Dustin May lags behind at 62%, which keeps this from being a clean NRFI, leaving the model essentially split at 49% scoreless.
Mike Paredes has a clean first-inning slate so far, holding scoreless in both of his starts, which props up the NRFI case for Minnesota's side. But the data thins out fast on the other end: Jose Cabrera has no season starts to lean on, and Chase Field's 106 run factor doesn't help his cause. With the Twins' lineup scoring early in 35% of games, this one's a genuine toss-up.
Brandon Young brings a tidy 73% NRFI rate into Dodger Stadium, and he's stranded the first inning in four of his last five outings. Baltimore's bats give Emmet Sheehan a soft assignment too, plating a first-inning run just 20% of the time and 22% against righties. With both arms trending clean, the model lands almost dead-even at 51% scoreless.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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