NRFI Results

Tarik Skubal brings a 71% first-inning shutdown rate over seven starts, and Detroit's lineup goes quiet against lefties like Brandon Eisert, scoring just 27% of the time. Eisert has held his own too at 67% NRFII, so the arms tilt this toward a scoreless frame. Still, our model lands at 48% — basically a coin flip, well off the book's 91% NRFI read.

Cam Schlittler has been nearly untouchable early, posting a 93% NRFI rate across 14 starts and going scoreless in the first in each of his last five. The other side of the ledger is messier: Rhett Lowder sits at just 44% NRFI and the Yankees' lineup scores in the first 39% of the time, second-most in MLB. Those clashing signals make this a genuine coin flip.

Landen Roupp is the headliner here, sitting on an 86% first-inning shutout rate across 14 starts, and the Giants offense he's paired against rarely strikes early — just 24% of games, dipping to 22% versus righties. The pull toward YRFI comes from Lake Bachar's shaky 67% NRFI mark in only three starts and a slightly hitter-friendly loanDepot park, leaving this one a true coin flip.

Both starters carry sparkling first-inning track records — PJ Poulin sits at 75% NRFI across eight outings, Griffin Jax at 78% over nine — which argues for a quiet top of the order at the Trop. The catch is recent form: each has surrendered a first-inning run in two of his last five, and Tampa Bay plates one 40% of the time against lefties, keeping this a true coin flip.

Misiorowski has been nearly untouchable early, posting a 92% NRFI mark across 13 starts and tossing five straight scoreless first innings. The tension comes on the other side: Martin Perez sits at a shakier 70% NRFI, and Milwaukee's bats rank fourth in MLB for first-inning scoring, hitting 37% against lefties. With the model at 48% versus the book's 54%, it's a true coin flip.

deGrom has held the line in four of his last five first innings, giving Texas a steadying presence against a Padres offense that scores in the opening frame just 21% of the time. The wobble is Randy Vasquez, who's surrendered a run in four of his past five firsts despite a solid 62% NRFI overall. With a pitcher's park at Globe Life, it lands as a true toss-up.

Bibee and Imai both bring sharp first-inning numbers to Daikin Park, with Imai posting a 75% NRFI mark across his eight starts and Bibee at 71% over fourteen. Cleveland's bats rarely strike early, scoring in the first just 24% of the time and only 21% against righties. Houston's offense is livelier at 35%, which evens this out to a true 50/50 coin flip.

Michael McGreevy is the headliner here, holding a sparkling 85% first-inning NRFI rate across 13 starts and a perfect 5-for-5 over his last five. The drag on this pencil is Seth Lugo, whose 54% NRFI mark and 2-of-5 recent run make Kansas City's side shakier — though the Royals have only scored first in 31% of games. With Kauffman playing just a touch above average, it nets out a genuine coin flip at 49%.

Roki Sasaki anchors the home side with a sterling 83% NRFI mark across 12 starts, and he draws a Baltimore lineup that's plated a first-inning run in just 21% of games — among the league's quietest early. The catch is Trey Gibson, whose 50% NRFI rate and two early runs over his last five starts keeps the Dodgers' bats live enough to keep this a true toss-up.