NRFI Results

Kyle Leahy carries an 83% first-inning shutout rate across 12 starts, and he's facing a Padres lineup that puts up a run in the opening frame just 20% of the time — 28th in MLB and only 20% against righties. Bradgley Rodriguez is clean in both his starts, though that's a tiny sample worth flagging. The numbers tilt NRFI here.

Both starters have kept the first frame clean every time out — Braydon Fisher across all four of his starts, Jake Bennett through three of his own. That matters even more given how quiet these lineups stay early: Boston scores in the first just 16% of the time against righties, and Toronto checks in at 17% versus lefties. The model's 55% scoreless read sits a solid 10 points above the book.

The Cubs' offense gives this one its NRFI lean, plating a first-inning run just 20% of the time and only 12% against lefties like Sean Sullivan. Javier Assad has kept the opening frame clean in three of four starts for Chicago, and Wrigley's 94 park factor tilts run-suppressive. Just note Sullivan's lone-start sample makes this a low-confidence read.

Kyle Bradish brings an 85% first-inning shutout rate over 13 starts into Seattle, and a pitcher's park like T-Mobile (83 run factor) only helps his cause. The Orioles' bats add to the lean, opening scoreless in 79% of games and scoring just 24% of the time against righties. Kirby's 69% NRFI mark is solid if less dominant, nudging this to a modest NRFI tilt.

Chase Field plays as a run-friendly park (106), and that environment helps tilt this one toward a YRFI lean. Sam Aldegheri offers a paper-thin profile — just two career starts with a 50% first-inning scoreless rate — and the Angels rank seventh in MLB for first-inning scoring at 35%. Just know the read on Aldegheri carries low confidence given that tiny sample.

Carlos Rodon's first-inning profile is the sore spot here, with the lefty stranding a scoreless first in just half of his six starts and only two of his last five. That plays right into a Yankees lineup that ranks second in MLB for first-inning scoring and crosses the plate 50% of the time against left-handers. Even with Anthony Kay holding a 64% NRFI mark, the model leans YRFI at 45% scoreless.

The big swing factor here is Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor, a hitter-friendly setting that nudges this toward YRFI. Aaron Civale's modest 64% first-inning shutout rate gives Pittsburgh's bats — MLB's most frequent first-inning scorers at 39% — a real opening. Braxton Ashcraft's 92% NRFI mark is the lone strong NRFI signal, keeping the model right at 43% scoreless.