NRFI Results
First-inning leans for June 14, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
339-276
615 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
4-2 on 6 leans
NRFI 2-1 · YRFI 2-1
NRFI Leans
3
Walker Buehler's 85% first-inning scoreless rate paces this one, and he's kept the board clean in four of his last five outings. On the other side, Trevor Rogers brings a solid 73% NRFI mark, and neither lineup does much early — Baltimore and San Diego both put up a first-inning run just 21% of the time. The model's 57% edges the book's 44% toward NRFI.
Freddy Peralta has been nearly untouchable in opening frames, posting a 92% NRFI mark across his 13 starts, and that's the engine behind this lean. Bryce Elder backs it up at 77% for Atlanta, while the Mets' offense only dents the scoreboard in the first 23% of the time against righties. Citi Field's slightly below-average run factor of 96 nudges it further toward a quiet start.
Logan Webb anchors this one, posting a 90% NRFI rate across 10 starts and keeping the first frame clean in four of his last five. The Cubs' bats have done little early all year, plating a first-inning run just 18% of the time. The big unknown is Ryan Rolison, who hasn't made a start this season, which keeps the confidence modest at Oracle Park.
YRFI Leans
3
Great American Ball Park's hitter-friendly 106 run factor sets the tone, and Zac Gallen hasn't helped his cause with first-inning runs in three of his last five starts. Arizona's bats add to the lean, scoring early 38% of the time against lefties like Andrew Abbott. The Reds offense is quieter, but enough tilts this slightly toward YRFI at a 46% scoreless model read.
Taj Bradley is the soft spot here, posting just a 45% first-inning shutout rate over 11 starts and only one clean opener in his last five. That works against Michael McGreevy's strong 83% NRFI mark, and Target Field's 104 run factor nudges things further toward offense. The lean is YRFI, though the model gives it a slight 47% scoreless chance.
Jeffrey Springs is the soft spot here, posting just a 46% first-inning shutdown rate over 13 starts, and the Rockies have plugged runs across in 41% of opening frames against lefties like him. Even with Sugano's steadier 67% NRFI form, the model pegs a scoreless first at only 46% — an 11-point edge over the book's 35% NRFI read, tilting this toward YRFI.
Coin Flips
8
Two strong NRFI arms square off at PNC Park, with both Max Meyer and Paul Skenes holding scoreless first innings in 77% of their starts. The catch is Pittsburgh's bats, who plate a run in the opening frame more often than any team in baseball — 40% overall, 45% versus righties. That tension between elite starters and a quick-strike lineup keeps this one close to a true toss-up.
Hancock and Poulin both bring elite first-inning resumes — 83% and 86% NRFI respectively, each spotless over their last five starts. The hangup is Seattle's bat, which lights up the first frame in 35% of games and 39% against lefties like Poulin. With Nationals Park playing slightly hitter-friendly at 102, the model's 49% scoreless read keeps this one genuinely even.
Both starters carry matching 75% NRFI marks across 12 starts, each posting a clean four scoreless first innings over their last five, which is why this leans quiet. The wrinkle is the Yankees lineup, which plates a first-inning run in 39% of games — second-most in MLB — and a hefty 53% against lefties like Corbin. That bat-versus-arm tension keeps it a true coin flip at 49%.
Spencer Arrighetti has kept the first frame clean in 90% of his 10 starts, with Stephen Kolek not far behind at 86% — strong NRFI résumés on both sides. The catch is Houston's bats, who put up first-inning runs 37% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league. That tension between elite arms and a dangerous Astros lineup leaves this one squarely a coin flip.
Bryan Hudson has kept the first inning clean in all three of his starts this season, though that's an awfully small sample to lean on. On the other side, Emmet Sheehan brings a more modest 55% NRFI rate but has gone scoreless in four of his last five. With both lineups plating a first-inning run barely a third of the time, this one sits right on the fence at 49%.
Cristopher Sanchez (85% NRFI, 5-for-5 in his last five) and Kyle Harrison (82%) make a strong case for a quiet opening frame, especially with American Family Field playing below average for offense at a 94 run factor. The catch is Milwaukee's bats, which scratch across a first-inning run 39% of the time against lefties — enough to keep this one a genuine coin flip at 52%.
Grayson Rodriguez has been spotless out of the gate, posting a clean first inning in all five of his starts for the Angels. The problem is the other side: Casey Legumina hasn't logged a start yet this season, so there's no read on him against a Rays lineup that scores in the first 35% of the time. That thin sample keeps this one a true coin flip near 47%.
Both starters carry matching 58% NRFI marks, and neither Eovaldi nor Early is facing a dangerous early-inning offense — Boston scores in the first just 20% of the time, dipping to 17% against righties, while Texas sits at 27%. Fenway's 108 park factor nudges things toward runs, which is enough to keep this one a genuine 49% coin flip.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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