NRFI Results

Braxton Ashcraft has been almost untouchable early — a 92% NRFI rate across 12 starts — and Sandy Alcantara checks in at a solid 77% himself. The catch is the bats: Pittsburgh plates a first-inning run in 40% of games, second-most in MLB, and Miami isn't far behind at 35%. With elite arms colliding with aggressive early offenses, our model calls it a genuine coin flip at 48% scoreless.

Bryce Miller hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his four starts, and Zack Littell's 78% NRFI rate over nine outings is solid too. The catch: both lineups attack early — Seattle plates a first-inning run 36% of the time (4th-most in MLB), and Washington isn't far behind at 32%. With the model at 48% scoreless and the book at 49%, there's no real edge either way.

Jack Flaherty has stranded first-inning runs in 77% of his 13 starts, and Cleveland's lineup ranks just 23rd in first-inning scoring — a solid NRFI foundation. The catch is Detroit, which plates a first-inning run 33% of the time and 38% against right-handers like Tanner Bibee. Even with pitcher-friendly Progressive Field, the model lands at 52% scoreless, essentially a coin flip.

Jack Leiter has been steady, posting a 75% NRFI rate across 12 starts against a Red Sox lineup that scores in the first just 19% of the time. The wobble is on the other side: Sonny Gray sits at 60% with only two clean first innings in his last five, and Fenway plays hitter-friendly at a 108 run factor. The model calls it nearly even at 52% scoreless — a genuine coin flip.

Great American Ball Park's hitter-friendly profile (106 run factor) cuts against the NRFI case here, especially with Eduardo Rodriguez allowing a first-inning run in half his 12 starts. Nick Lodolo's 67% NRFI rate is solid, but Arizona scores early 33% of the time against lefties. The model pegs a scoreless first at just 48% — well below the 63% the book implies — making this a genuine toss-up.

Nolan McLean has been a first-inning stopper, posting a 75% NRFI rate across 12 starts, but he draws a Braves lineup that scores in the opening frame 34% of the time — eighth-most in baseball. Spencer Strider's shakier 57% NRFI clip adds risk on the other side, and the model lands at an even 50%, essentially matching the book. Strength meets strength, and it cancels out.

The Yankees score in the first inning in 41% of their games — the highest rate in MLB — and that's the main problem for Trey Yesavage, whose 63% NRFI mark over 8 starts is solid but not spotless. On the other side, Ryan Weathers (67% NRFI) faces a Toronto lineup that crosses early just 23% of the time. Our model splits the difference at 48% scoreless, a genuine coin flip.

Roki Sasaki has been a first-inning wall, posting a 91% NRFI rate across 11 starts, but the other half of this game is where the doubt creeps in. Anthony Kay sits at just 60% NRFI and has allowed first-inning runs in three of his last five, against a Dodgers lineup that scores early 32% of the time. The model lands at 51% scoreless — a true coin flip.

Jacob Misiorowski has kept the first inning clean in 92% of his starts, and Andrew Painter isn't far behind at 82%, including four of his last five. So why is this only a 53% scoreless call? Both lineups bring real punch early — the Phillies plate a first-inning run 43% of the time against right-handers, and Milwaukee scores in the first at a top-ten clip. Genuine coin flip.

Tatsuya Imai has been a first-inning wall, posting an 86% NRFI rate and keeping all five of his last five starts scoreless early. The problem is the other half: Luinder Avila has allowed a first-inning run in two of three starts, and Houston plates one in the opening frame 36% of the time, third-most in baseball. Imai's dominance and Avila's vulnerability essentially cancel out, leaving the model at a near-even 48% scoreless.

Kyle Leahy has been about as quiet as it gets in the first, posting a 91% NRFI rate across 11 starts and clearing four of his last five. The catch is Joe Ryan's side of the ledger — a 69% NRFI mark against a Twins lineup that scores early 32% of the time keeps this near a true coin flip, with the model at 51% scoreless.

Shane McClanahan has been about as clean as it gets early, posting a 92% NRFI rate across 12 starts and zeroes in all five of his last outings. The trouble is the other half: Sam Aldegheri's lone start saw a first-inning run, and Tampa Bay plates a run in the 1st 36% of the time — 43% against lefties. With that thin Aldegheri sample, the model sits at 47% scoreless, essentially a coin flip.