NRFI Results

Tyler Phillips has kept the first inning clean in both of his starts, but two outings is far too thin a sample to lean on. Merrill Kelly's 60% NRFI rate is solid, yet Miami crosses in the opening frame in 34% of games — eighth-most in MLB. With the model sitting at 48% scoreless and low confidence, this profiles as a genuine coin flip.

Keider Montero hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his 12 starts, which would normally scream NRFI — but Zebby Matthews is the wild card, posting just a 40% clean-first rate and giving up early runs in three of his last five. With Detroit scoring in the first 37% of the time against righties, this one genuinely splits down the middle at 50/50.

Neither the Mets nor the Cardinals do much first-inning damage — both score in the opening frame barely a quarter of the time, and just 21% against right-handers like the two on the mound. Citi Field's pitcher-friendly profile (96 run factor) helps the scoreless case, but Hunter Dobbins has exactly one MLB start to judge, so the model's 53% NRFI read is genuinely a coin flip.

Michael Wacha has been a first-inning wall, posting an 83% NRFI rate across 12 starts and four clean openers in his last five. The problem is the other dugout: Kumar Rocker has managed a scoreless first in just 27% of his 11 starts, which keeps Kansas City's chances alive. With the model at 49% scoreless, those two trends essentially cancel out into a genuine coin flip at Kauffman.

Edward Cabrera has been one of the toughest first-inning arms around, posting a 90% NRFI rate across 10 starts, and the Cubs' lineup scores in the first just 17% of the time — fewest in baseball. The catch is Coors Field, where a 128 run factor inflates everything. With Feltner at a shakier 71%, the model lands at 48% scoreless — a genuine coin flip.

Mitch Keller has kept the first inning clean in 10 of 12 starts, including five straight, but the Dodgers cross the plate in 37% of first innings against right-handers, which blunts that edge. On the flip side, Pittsburgh's lineup scores in the opening frame at the second-highest rate in MLB (41%), testing Justin Wrobleski's solid 70% NRFI mark. The model lands at 48% scoreless — a genuine toss-up.