Patterns

Potential player prop edges based on pitcher matchups, handedness splits, park factors, and recent form.

How MLB Patterns are selected

We analyze every player prop across multiple dimensions. A pick appears when matchup signals agree and recent form confirms:

Over

Hitter matchup signals:
- Opposing pitcher BAA > .260, HR/9 > 1.3, or WHIP > 1.35
- Hitter platoon split > .290 BA vs pitcher hand
- Hitter-friendly park factor
- Career vs pitcher .300+ BA (10+ PA)
Pitcher K matchup signals:
- Pitcher K/9 > 9.5 (elite strikeout rate)
- Opposing team K-rate top 10 in MLB
- Pitcher avg > 6.0 IP/start (deep into games)
- High strikeout park factor
Form confirmation (at least 1):
- Over in 4+ of last 5 or 7+ of last 10
- Over in 66%+ vs opponent (min 4 games)

Under

Hitter matchup signals:
- Opposing pitcher BAA < .210, HR/9 < 0.7, or WHIP < 1.05
- Hitter platoon split < .220 BA vs pitcher hand
- Pitcher-friendly park factor
- Career vs pitcher .180- BA (10+ PA)
Pitcher K matchup signals:
- Pitcher K/9 < 6.5 (low strikeout rate)
- Opposing team K-rate bottom 10 in MLB
- Pitcher avg < 5.0 IP/start (short outings)
- Low strikeout park factor
Form confirmation (at least 1):
- Under in 4+ of last 5 or 7+ of last 10
- Under in 66%+ vs opponent (min 4 games)

Confidence tiers: Featured (4+ signals), Strong (3 signals), Standard (2 signals). Conflicting matchup signals result in no pick. Odds must be between -200 and +200.

These are automated statistical matches. Picks update as odds and lineups change.