NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 22, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
321-267
588 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
173-15752%
YRFI
148-11057%
0-0 on 6 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
2
Fenway Park · park run factor 108
- NRFI lean — Parker Messick (87% NRFI) and Payton Tolle (68%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -165 (59% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
Starter TBD
Awaiting probable starter
Wrigley Field · park run factor 94
- NRFI lean — Janson Junk has worked a scoreless first in 83% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -148.5 (56% implied).
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 26% of games, 26th-most in MLB.
YRFI Leans
4
Kauffman Stadium · park run factor 102
- YRFI lean — the Kansas City Royals push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (5th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
Coors Field · park run factor 128
- YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 32% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 42%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
Sutter Health Park · park run factor 117
- YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Los Angeles Angels score early in 34% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +104.5 (46% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
Oracle Park · park run factor 94
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -132.5 (54% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
10
Yankee Stadium · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Nick Martinez's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -148 (56% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Chris Bassitt's 69% NRFI is the case for the under; the Baltimore Orioles' 25% first-inning bats (28th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 25% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Citizens Bank Park · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — Zack Wheeler's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -152 (57% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
PNC Park · park run factor 98
- Coin flip — Jared Jones' 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 30% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -145.5 (56% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
Comerica Park · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Drew Anderson's 90% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Yankee Stadium · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Drew Rasmussen's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -165 (59% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
Truist Park · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — Brandon Williamson's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +105 (46% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
Globe Life Field · park run factor 94
- Coin flip — MacKenzie Gore's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Mets' 29% first-inning bats (20th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
T-Mobile Park · park run factor 83
- Coin flip — Cristian Javier's 90% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -126.5 (97% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
Starter TBD
Awaiting probable starter
Dodger Stadium · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — Michael King's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied).
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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