NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 21, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
320-267
587 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-0 on 1 lean
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
YRFI Leans
1
Blade Tidwell has kept the first inning clean in just 38% of his eight starts, and he's drawing the worst possible assignment: Minnesota's lineup scores in the opening frame 36% of the time, the highest rate in baseball, and 39% against righties. Zebby Matthews sits at a coin-flip 50% NRFI himself. Oracle Park's 94 run factor trims the edge, but the model still lands at 45% scoreless — a modest YRFI lean.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
2
Trey Yesavage has kept the first inning clean in 67% of his 18 starts, and he's facing a Baltimore lineup that scores in the opening frame just 25% of the time — 29th in MLB. Shane Baz is a touch shakier at 59%, and both starters have slipped lately, going 3-for-5 and 2-for-5 in their last five. The model lands at 52% scoreless, well above the book's implied 37%.
- Coin flip — Trey Yesavage's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Baltimore Orioles' 25% first-inning bats (29th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -130.5 (37% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied).
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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