NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 20, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
317-262
579 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-0 on 8 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
4
Patrick Sandoval has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 12 starts, and Boston's bats give Griffin Jax a soft assignment — the Red Sox have scored in the opening frame just 26% of the time, 27th in MLB, and only 23% against right-handers. Tampa Bay's offense is the live end here at 32%, so the model's 54% scoreless number sits well under the market's 97% implied read.
- NRFI lean — Patrick Sandoval (83% NRFI) and Griffin Jax (71%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -126 (97% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
Spencer Miles hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his seven starts this year, and he draws a Texas lineup that plates a run in the opening frame just 29% of the time. Toronto's bats have been even quieter — dead last in MLB at 24% — though deGrom's 59% NRFI rate is merely good rather than airtight. Globe Life's 94 run factor nudges things further toward zeros, and at 54% the model sits right on the book's 55%.
- NRFI lean — Spencer Miles has worked a scoreless first in 100% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
Sandy Alcantara has kept the first inning clean in 84% of his 31 starts, and he draws a Padres lineup that plates a run in the opening frame just 26% of the time — 22% against righties. Walker Buehler's 80% NRFI mark holds up the other side against a Marlins offense at 26%. Petco's 94 run factor only tightens things; the model's 60% sits nine points above the book's 51%.
- NRFI lean — Sandy Alcantara (84% NRFI) and Walker Buehler (80%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -115.5 (51% implied); the model has it 60%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 26% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 26% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Jacob Misiorowski has kept the first inning clean in 81% of his 27 starts, and he's facing a Baltimore lineup that puts up a run in the opening frame just 25% of the time — 29th in MLB. Brandon Young's 69% clip adds to the case, though the Brewers do plate first-inning runs a bit more often. The model's 54% sits just under the book's 56%, so the NRFI side is priced fairly.
- NRFI lean — Jacob Misiorowski (81% NRFI) and Brandon Young (69%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -148 (56% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
4
David Peterson has kept the first inning clean in just 45% of his 20 starts, and Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor doesn't do a lefty any favors. The counterweight is Rhett Lowder, who's posted a 65% NRFI mark across 23 starts and is 4-for-5 lately, plus two offenses that rank in the bottom third for first-inning scoring. That tension keeps this a mild YRFI lean rather than a strong one.
- YRFI lean — Great American Ball Park (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Chicago Cubs score early in 27% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +114 (44% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 15% against left-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
Davis Martin has kept the first inning clean in 76% of his 25 starts, which is the main thing standing between this game and an early run at Rate Field. The lean still tilts YRFI because Detroit scores in the first 34% of the time — third-most in MLB, 35% against righties — and Troy Melton's 58% NRFI mark gives Chicago's ninth-ranked first-inning offense room to answer.
- YRFI lean — the Detroit Tigers push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -129 (36% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
Coors Field's 128 run factor does the heavy lifting here, and neither starter offers much of a firewall — Tomoyuki Sugano has kept the first inning clean in just 54% of his 26 starts, while Kade Anderson sits at 60% across a five-start sample. Both Colorado and Seattle plate a first-inning run in 32% of games, and the model's 37% scoreless figure trails the book's implied 46%.
- YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 32% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +106 (46% implied); the model has it 37%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Dean Kremer's 60% first-inning shutout rate is the soft spot here, and he's facing an Angels lineup that plates a run in the opening frame 34% of the time — fourth-most in the majors. Ryan Johnson pushes back hard from the other side at 81% NRFI with five straight clean firsts, but Minnesota leads MLB by scoring in the 1st in 36% of games (39% vs righties). At Angel Stadium's slightly hitter-friendly 102 park factor, the model's 45% scoreless sits under the book's 50%.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
7
Cristopher Sanchez has kept the first inning clean in 76% of his 29 starts, and Citi Field's 96 run factor nudges things toward zeros too — but Jonah Tong's spotless 100% NRFI comes from just two career starts, which is nowhere near enough to lean on. With the Phillies scoring in the first 32% of the time, this shapes up as a genuine coin flip at 52% scoreless.
- Coin flip — Cristopher Sanchez's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Lake Bachar has kept the first inning clean in 80% of his 10 starts, and Michael Wacha isn't far behind at 76% across 29 — yet both offenses rank among the league's busier early scorers, with Kansas City sitting 5th in first-inning scoring rate and Pittsburgh 12th. That tug-of-war, plus PNC Park's slightly run-suppressing 98 factor, lands the model at 51% scoreless, dead even with the book.
- Coin flip — Lake Bachar's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 32% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Gavin Williams has kept the first inning clean in 72% of his 29 starts, easily the strongest number on the board here, and Progressive Field's 94 run factor nudges things down further. The catch is Jack Perkins, whose 60% NRFI rate is merely okay, and both the Guardians (28%) and Athletics (29%) put up first-inning runs at similar, middling clips. The model's 52% scoreless sits just under the book's 56%.
- Coin flip — Gavin Williams' 72% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 29% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -143 (56% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Hunter Brown has kept the first inning clean in five straight starts and 82% of 17 overall, which is a big reason the book is sitting at an 89% NRFI price. The counterweight is Houston's bats: the Astros put up a first-inning run in 34% of their games, second-most in MLB, and Martin Perez's 72% clean-first rate is the softer side of this pairing. At a neutral Daikin Park, the model sees closer to a 50/50 split than the market does.
- Coin flip — Hunter Brown's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -118 (89% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 29% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Quinn Mathews has kept the first inning clean in 71% of his seven starts, and the Nationals have only dented the scoreboard in the opening frame 30% of the time — including 30% against lefties. The catch is that Mathews' sample is thin, Jake Irvin sits at a more modest 61% NRFI, and Busch Stadium plays dead average. At 49% scoreless against a 48% market, there's no real edge either way.
- Coin flip — Quinn Mathews' 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 30% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
Corbin Burnes has kept the first inning clean in both of his starts, but two outings tell you almost nothing — that thin sample is exactly why this one sits at 50/50 in the model. Will Warren offers firmer footing with a 70% NRFI mark across 27 starts and four scoreless firsts in his last five, and neither the Diamondbacks (27%) nor the Yankees (29%) dent the scoreboard early very often. Chase Field's 106 run factor is the nudge the other way.
- Coin flip — Will Warren's 70% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- Coin flip — Matt Wilkinson's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied).
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
Want full matchup analysis & AI picks? →
Pitcher arsenals, bullpen context, lineup splits, and AI-powered MLB prop analysis — free to start.
Get Started FreeOr browse today’s MLB games or MLB player props.