NRFI Results

Trevor Rogers has kept the first inning clean in 89% of his 27 starts, including each of his last five — that's the anchor here. Baltimore's bats give Robert Gasser a friendly draw too, scoring in the opening frame just 25% of the time and only 15% against lefties. The wrinkle is Milwaukee's 38% first-inning strike rate versus southpaws, which keeps this a modest NRFI lean rather than anything emphatic at Camden Yards.

• NRFI lean — Robert Gasser (67% NRFI) and Trevor Rogers (89%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 15% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.

Jacob Lopez has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 21 starts, and Tanner Bibee counters with an 80% mark across 30 — including five straight scoreless openers. Neither offense does much early either, with Cleveland plating a first-inning run in just 28% of games and Oakland 29%, all inside a Progressive Field that suppresses scoring (94 park factor). The model's 57% is far below the market's 97%, though.

• NRFI lean — Jacob Lopez (86% NRFI) and Tanner Bibee (80%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -126 (97% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Cal Quantrill has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 13 starts, and Jose Soriano matches the theme at 79% across 29 outings with five straight scoreless openers. Neither offense pushes back much either — Toronto plates a first-inning run just 24% of the time, dead last in MLB, while Texas sits at 29%. Globe Life Field's 94 run factor only tightens things further.

• NRFI lean — Jose Soriano (79% NRFI) and Cal Quantrill (85%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -134 (53% implied); the model has it 58%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Andrew Alvarez hasn't surrendered a first-inning run in any of his 15 starts, a perfect mark that anchors the NRFI side even though St. Louis bumps up to 36% scoring in the first against lefties. Michael McGreevy answers with a 74% clean-first rate across 27 outings, and Busch Stadium's neutral 100 run factor adds nothing either way. Model sees 54%, a touch above the book's 50%.

• NRFI lean — Andrew Alvarez (100% NRFI) and Michael McGreevy (74%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Cam Schlittler has kept the first inning clean in 87% of his 30 starts, including all five of his last five — a hard number to ignore even with Chase Field's 106 run factor in play. Brandon Pfaadt isn't far behind at 82%, and the Diamondbacks (27% of games) and Yankees (29%) both rank in the lower half at scoring early. The model's 54% NRFI sits well above the book's implied 37%.

• NRFI lean — Cam Schlittler (87% NRFI) and Brandon Pfaadt (82%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (37% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Casey Mize has kept the first inning clean in 92% of his 24 starts, and that's the number driving this one. Eury Perez isn't far behind at 69%, and neither offense does much early — San Diego scores in the first just 26% of the time, Miami 27%, both bottom-third in MLB. Petco's 94 run factor only tightens things further, which is why the model sits at 58% against a market implying 50%.

• NRFI lean — Eury Perez (69% NRFI) and Casey Mize (92%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 58%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 26% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 27% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Jackson Jobe has kept the first inning clean in just 29% of his seven starts, and he's been scored on in four of his last five — not what you want against a White Sox lineup that puts up a run in the opening frame 31% of the time, ninth-most in MLB. Sean Burke's 75% NRFI mark is the real counterweight here, but Detroit's bats rank second in MLB at 34%. Hence the modest YRFI lean against the book's 54%.

• YRFI lean — the Detroit Tigers push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Coors Field's 128 run factor is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here, and both offenses cooperate: Colorado plates a first-inning run in 33% of games (sixth-most in MLB) and Seattle isn't far behind at 31%. Jose Quintana's 75% first-inning zero rate offers real resistance, but Bryce Miller has been shaky lately, clearing the first in just two of his last five starts.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 33% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 40%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Reid Detmers has kept the first inning clean in 79% of his 29 starts and all five of his last, which is the lone argument for quiet baseball here. Joe Ryan cuts the other way: 63% NRFI on the season but just one scoreless opening frame in his last five, and Minnesota's lineup scores in the first more often than any team in MLB (36%). With the Angels also plating runs early 34% of the time in a slightly hitter-friendly Angel Stadium, the model's 45% scoreless leans well under the market's 57%.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -150 (57% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.