NRFI Results

Griffin Jax has kept the first inning clean in 70% of his 20 starts, easily the strongest arm in this spot — but he's done it just twice in his last five, and the Rays' bats he's protecting rank 7th in MLB at scoring in the opening frame (32%). Jack Perkins counters with a modest 57% NRFI mark, though 4 of his last 5 have been scoreless. Tropicana Field's 95 run factor nudges it quiet; everything else says 50/50.

• Coin flip — Griffin Jax's 70% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -117 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Yamamoto has kept the first inning clean in 68% of his 25 starts, and Rhett Lowder isn't far behind at 64% with four scoreless openers in his last five. The counterweight is Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor, which keeps any inning live even against bats that have been quiet early — Cincinnati scores in the first just 27% of the time. At 48% scoreless, the model sits well above the book's 37% implied NRFI.

• Coin flip — Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (37% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Jacob Misiorowski has kept the first inning clean in 81% of his 26 starts, and Lake Bachar sits right there at 78% across nine — on paper, a quiet opening frame at PNC Park. The catch is who they're facing: Pittsburgh's bats score in the first 32% of the time and Milwaukee's 31%, both top-10 marks in MLB. The model's 52% scoreless read lands just under the book's 56%.

• Coin flip — Jacob Misiorowski's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -150 (56% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Cristopher Sanchez has kept the first frame clean in 79% of his 28 starts, but Jackson Kent's 67% mark comes from just six turns — a thin sample to lean on, and he's allowed a first-inning run in two of his last five. Philadelphia scores in the opening inning 38% of the time against lefties, sixth-most in MLB, and Nationals Park plays slightly hitter-friendly at 102. Genuine toss-up, with the book's 97% NRFI price far ahead of the model's 50%.

• Coin flip — Cristopher Sanchez's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -126 (97% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 29% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.

Sean Manaea has kept the first inning clean in 63% of his 16 starts, and Shane Baz isn't far behind at 61% over 28 — yet the model still lands on 51% scoreless, essentially even with the book's 50%. Part of that is the Mets, who put a run up in the opening frame 29% of the time and 28% against righties, a bit more than Baltimore's 25%. Citi Field's 96 run factor nudges things quiet, but not enough to break the tie.

• Coin flip — Sean Manaea's 63% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Mets' 29% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -117 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 15% against left-handers.

Martin Perez has kept the first inning clean in 71% of his 24 starts, and Kevin Gausman isn't far behind at 66% over 29 — yet the model still lands at just 52% scoreless. The reason: neither offense is dormant, with Atlanta plating a first-inning run in 30% of games and the Cubs at 27%, so Wrigley's 94 run factor only nudges things slightly toward NRFI.

• Coin flip — Martin Perez's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 30% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Max Fried has kept the first inning clean in 76% of his 17 starts, including all five of his last five, and Bailey Ober isn't far behind at 71% — strong arms on both sides. The complication is Minnesota's lineup, which puts up a first-inning run in 36% of games, the highest rate in MLB, inside a Target Field park factor of 104. Hence the near-even 48% scoreless read.

• Coin flip — Max Fried's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 36% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Andre Pallante has kept the first inning clean in 62% of his 26 starts, but Blade Tidwell sits at just 43% across his seven, and that split is basically the whole story here. Both offenses score in the opening frame 29% of the time and dip to roughly 22-23% against right-handers, which keeps Busch Stadium's neutral 100 run factor from tipping anything. The model's 48% scoreless read sits a touch under the book's 51%.

• Coin flip — Andre Pallante's 62% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 29% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -119 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Michael Wacha and Hunter Brown both carry strong first-inning marks — 79% and 81% NRFI respectively, with each stranding the zero in four of five, or three of five, recent starts. The catch is who they're facing: Houston plates a first-inning run in 34% of games (4th-most in MLB) and Kansas City in 32% (5th-most), so two top-five opening frames offset the arms. The model sits at 50%, well under the 86% NRFI the book implies.

• Coin flip — Hunter Brown's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -119 (86% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.