NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 14, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
295-244
539 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-0 on 6 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
3
Sean Newcomb hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his five starts, and he's facing a Cleveland lineup that scores in the opening frame just 28% of the time — and only 23% against left-handers. Gavin Williams brings a 71% first-inning shutout rate across 28 starts in a Progressive Field park that plays below average for runs (94). The model still lands at 53%, a touch shy of the 60% the market implies, so the NRFI edge here is modest rather than emphatic.
- NRFI lean — Sean Newcomb (100% NRFI) and Gavin Williams (71%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -177 (60% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Brandon Young has kept the first inning clean in 68% of his 25 starts, and he's facing a Mets offense that scores in the opening frame just 29% of the time — 28% against right-handers. On the other side, Jonah Tong's spotless NRFI mark comes from a single start, so there's little to lean on beyond Baltimore's 25% first-inning scoring rate, 27th in MLB. Citi Field's 96 run factor nudges things the same direction, hence the modest NRFI tilt.
- NRFI lean — Brandon Young has worked a scoreless first in 68% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Sandy Alcantara has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 30 starts, including four of his last five — that's the anchor here, since Corbin Burnes' spotless mark comes from a single outing and tells us very little. Both the Diamondbacks and Marlins plate a first-inning run just 27% of the time, which nudges this toward NRFI even at Chase Field's 106 run factor. The model's 53% barely clears the book's 51%, so the edge is slim.
- NRFI lean — Sandy Alcantara has worked a scoreless first in 83% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -121 (51% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
3
Reynaldo Lopez has kept the first inning clean in just 36% of his 11 starts, and David Peterson isn't much sturdier at 42% — that pair of shaky openers is what tilts this one toward a run at Wrigley. The bats offer some pushback: Chicago plates a first-inning run in 27% of games, Atlanta 30%, and the park plays below average at a 94 run factor. Model's 46% scoreless sits right on the book's 47%.
- YRFI lean — the Atlanta Braves push a first-inning run across in 30% of games (14th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
Minnesota's bats have put a run on the board in the first inning 36% of the time — the highest rate in baseball — and that climbs to 39% against right-handers like Will Warren. Dean Kremer hasn't exactly slammed the door himself, posting a 57% first-inning shutout rate across 14 starts, and Target Field's 104 run factor nudges things further. The model sees 45% scoreless where the book implies 50%.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Coors Field and its 128 run factor do most of the talking here, and Tomoyuki Sugano's 56% first-inning shutout rate over 25 starts is the soft spot — Colorado's bats have plated a run in the opening frame 31% of the time, 10th-most in MLB. Casey Mize pushes back hard at 96% NRFI across 23 starts, but San Diego's 25% first-inning scoring rate ranks 29th, leaving this a slight YRFI lean at best.
- YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 31% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
4
Two lefties with nearly identical résumés headline this one: Tarik Skubal has kept the first inning clean in 65% of his 20 starts, Nick Lodolo in 67% of his 18. The complication is Great American Ball Park at a 106 run factor, plus recent slippage — Lodolo has just two clean firsts in his last five, Skubal three. Cincinnati's bats score in the first only 27% of the time, but the Dodgers sit at 31%, and the model lands at 48% scoreless, a touch under the book's 56%.
- Coin flip — Nick Lodolo's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -146 (56% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
Jose Soriano has kept the first inning clean in 79% of his 28 starts and all five of his last five, which is the sturdiest number on the board here. The catch is who he's facing: Detroit puts up a first-inning run in 34% of its games, second-most in MLB and 36% against right-handers. Troy Melton's 61% NRFI rate against Toronto's quiet bats (24%) balances it out — the model lands at 51% scoreless, a hair under the book's 55%.
- Coin flip — Jose Soriano's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -137.5 (55% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
Landen Roupp has kept the first inning clean in 82% of his 28 starts, and the Cardinals only put up a first-inning run in 23% of their games against right-handers — that half of the board leans quiet. The other half is murkier: Quinn Mathews has just six starts to judge, a 67% NRFI rate, and San Francisco scores in the opening frame 33% of the time versus lefties. With Busch Stadium playing dead neutral, it lands near a true coin flip.
- Coin flip — Landen Roupp's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 29% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -141.5 (55% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
Reid Detmers has kept the first inning clean in 79% of his 28 starts, including each of his last five, and Kade Anderson's 75% mark over four starts leans the same direction. The pushback comes from the Angels bats, which put a run on the board in the first 33% of the time — fourth-most in MLB — inside a slightly run-friendly Angel Stadium. That tug-of-war lands near a true 49% coin flip, just shy of the book's 54% NRFI read.
- Coin flip — Reid Detmers' 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 33% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 33% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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