NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 9, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
285-230
515 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-0 on 7 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
5
Walker Buehler has kept the first inning clean in 79% of his 28 starts, and he's facing a Nationals lineup that scores in the opening frame just 29% of the time — 28% against right-handers. Petco's 94 run factor and San Diego's bottom-tier 25% first-inning scoring rate add to the NRFI case, though Jackson Kent's 60% mark over five starts is the softer side of this matchup. Model sits at 55%, six points above the implied 49%.
- NRFI lean — Jackson Kent (60% NRFI) and Walker Buehler (79%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor does a lot of the heavy lifting here, and both lefties have cooperated: Cody Bradford has kept the first inning clean in 67% of his six starts, Kade Anderson in two of three. Texas has been especially quiet early against left-handers, plating a first-inning run just 23% of the time, which nudges the model to 55% NRFI against a 52% market number.
- NRFI lean — Cody Bradford (67% NRFI) and Kade Anderson (67%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
Foster Griffin has kept the first inning clean in 81% of his 27 starts, and Baltimore's offense hasn't punished lefties much — the Orioles have scored in the opening frame just 16% of the time against that hand. Shane Baz is the softer side of this at 63% NRFI, and Camden Yards plays dead average for runs. Worth noting the book's 95% NRFI price sits well above the model's 54%.
- NRFI lean — Foster Griffin (81% NRFI) and Shane Baz (63%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -123.5 (95% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 16% against left-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Janson Junk has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 21 starts, including all five of his last five, and Robert Stock has matched that trend at 83% over six outings. Neither offense does much early either — the Marlins score in the first 28% of the time, the Mets 29% — so even loanDepot park's slightly above-average run factor doesn't shake the NRFI lean.
- NRFI lean — Robert Stock (83% NRFI) and Janson Junk (86%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Logan Henderson has kept the first inning clean in 87% of his 15 starts, and he draws a Cubs lineup that gets on the board in the opening frame just 27% of the time. Kevin Gausman brings his own 68% NRFI mark and five straight scoreless firsts against a Brewers offense hitting 27% versus righties. American Family Field's 94 run factor nudges it further that way, though at 54% the model barely separates from the book's 53%.
- NRFI lean — Kevin Gausman (68% NRFI) and Logan Henderson (87%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -131.5 (53% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
2
Keider Montero has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 23 starts, easily the strongest arm on the card here — but he's staring at the Twins lineup that plates a run in the opening frame more often than any team in baseball (37%, and 39% against righties). On the other side, Zebby Matthews sits at a coin-flip 50% NRFI facing a Detroit group that scores first-inning runs 34% of the time. That combination pushes the model to 44% scoreless, a touch under the 48% the book implies.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -102 (48% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.
Zac Gallen has kept the first inning clean in just 39% of his 18 starts, and it's been worse lately — only one scoreless opener in his last five. That's a rough draw against a Kansas City lineup that plates a run in the first 32% of the time, sixth-most in MLB, inside a Kauffman park playing slightly above average for runs. The model's 44% scoreless sits under the book's 49%.
- YRFI lean — the Kansas City Royals push a first-inning run across in 32% of games (6th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
Coin Flips
8
Braydon Fisher hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his eight starts, and Toronto's opponents in Oakland rank 19th at scoring in the first (28% of games, same against righties). The counterweight is Brady Basso, who has held the frame scoreless in just half of his four starts, inside a Sutter Health Park that plays 17% above average for runs. Model sits at 50% scoreless versus a 47% book number — essentially a toss-up.
- Coin flip — Braydon Fisher's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 28% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +101 (47% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 20% against left-handers.
Blade Tidwell has kept the first inning clean in just 33% of his six starts, and that shaky mark is what keeps this from tilting toward NRFI despite everything else pointing that way. Andre Pallante sits at 64% through 25 outings, Oracle Park's 94 run factor plays down, and both the Giants and Cardinals have scored in the first just 22% of the time against right-handers. The model lands at 50%, matching the book exactly.
- Coin flip — Andre Pallante's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 27% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
Hunter Brown has kept the first inning clean in 80% of his 15 starts, and Cristopher Sanchez sits right there with him at 78% over 27 — yet neither gets a soft landing. Philadelphia scores in the opening frame 33% of the time (fifth-most in MLB) and Houston 34% (second-most), though both dip near 27-28% against these handedness matchups. With a slightly hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, the model's 49% scoreless read is essentially a stalemate.
- Coin flip — Hunter Brown's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -128 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
Jake Bennett has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his 17 starts, and Ryan Johnson isn't far behind at 79% over 14 — on paper, that's a quiet opening frame. The complication is Fenway's 108 run factor and an Angels lineup that plates a first-inning run 34% of the time, fourth-most in MLB and 36% against lefties. Boston's 26% first-inning rate pulls the other way, leaving the model at 51% scoreless versus 47% implied.
- Coin flip — Jake Bennett's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +102 (47% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
Will Warren has kept the first frame clean in 68% of his 25 starts, and the Yankees' offense only strikes in the opening inning 28% of the time — 22% against righties. The catch is Tomoyuki Sugano, whose 54% NRFI rate is closer to a coin flip, and Colorado ranks ninth in MLB at scoring first-inning runs. The model sits at 47% scoreless, well under the book's 63%.
- Coin flip — Will Warren's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 31% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +4 (63% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- Coin flip — Griffin Jax's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied).
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB.
Both starters carry identical 75% first-inning NRFI marks — Lake Bachar across eight starts, Davis Martin across 24 — yet the offenses behind them cancel that out. Chicago and Pittsburgh each plate a run in the first 31% of the time, ranking 8th and 10th in MLB, and the Pirates bump to 36% against righties. Martin's 1-for-5 scoreless streak in his last five keeps this at a true 50/50.
- Coin flip — Lake Bachar's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
Yamamoto's 67% first-inning shutout rate over 24 starts is the best number on the board here, and Rhett Lowder isn't far behind at 62% across 21 outings. The catch is Dodger Stadium's 102 run factor and a Dodgers lineup that puts up a first-inning run in 31% of games — 11th-most in MLB. The model's 48% scoreless read against a 50% book number leaves this one genuinely balanced.
- Coin flip — Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -114.5 (50% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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