NRFI Results

Sandy Alcantara has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 29 starts, including all five of his last five — that alone would push this toward NRFI. The complication is Sean Manaea, who sits at just 60% for the year and has been scoreless in three of five recent outings, and loanDepot park's 102 run factor doesn't help. With the Mets scoring first-inning runs 29% of the time, the model's 52% scoreless read is essentially a coin flip against the book's 51%.

• Coin flip — Sandy Alcantara's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Mets' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Reid Detmers has kept the first inning clean in 78% of his 27 starts, including all five of his last five, and Patrick Sandoval counters at 80% across 10 outings — two lefties who rarely stumble out of the gate. The pull the other way comes from the Angels, who score in the first 34% of the time (4th-most in MLB) and 37% against lefties, inside a Fenway park factor of 108. Genuinely 50/50, with the book a touch more NRFI-friendly at 54%.

• Coin flip — Patrick Sandoval's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.

Cam Schlittler has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 28 starts, including each of his last five — that's the anchor here. The problem is the other half: Gabriel Hughes sits at a coin-flip 50% NRFI, and Colorado's bats plate a run in the opening frame 32% of the time, eighth-most in MLB. Model at 52% scoreless, book at 51% — no real separation at Yankee Stadium.

• Coin flip — Cam Schlittler's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 32% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

AJ Smith-Shawver hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his four starts, but four starts is thin evidence to hang much on, and Freddy Peralta has protected the zero in just 2 of his last 5 despite a 67% NRFI mark across 27 outings. Add Tampa Bay scoring in the first 32% of the time — ninth-most in baseball — at a slightly run-friendly Truist Park, and the model's 49% scoreless read sits right on top of the market's 48%.

• Coin flip — AJ Smith-Shawver's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Michael Wacha's 78% first-inning shutout rate across 27 starts is the sturdiest number on the board, though he's held the zero in just 3 of his last 5. The problem is the other side: Corbin Burnes hasn't thrown a season start yet, so there's no first-inning read on him at all, and Kansas City's bats score in the opening frame 33% of the time — sixth-most in MLB. That blind spot, plus Kauffman's slight run-friendly tilt, keeps this a true 50/50.

• Coin flip — Michael Wacha's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -107 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Jacob Misiorowski has kept the first frame clean in 84% of his 25 starts, and the Cubs have only dented opposing righties in the opening inning 26% of the time — that half of the game screams zeros. The complication is David Peterson, scoreless in the first in just 44% of his 18 outings, facing a Brewers lineup that scores 36% of the time against lefties. American Family Field's 94 run factor keeps it near a true toss-up at 52%.

• Coin flip — Jacob Misiorowski's 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 29% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Sean Burke has kept the first inning clean in 5 straight starts and 78% of his 23 outings overall, and Bubba Chandler isn't far off at 73% — strong marks on both sides. The catch is that these offenses rank among the league's busiest early, with the White Sox scoring in the first 32% of the time and Pittsburgh at 31% (35% against righties). Slight pitcher edge, essentially a toss-up at Rate Field.

• Coin flip — Sean Burke's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -129 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Jose Soriano has kept the first inning clean in 78% of his 27 starts, including all five of his last five, and he's facing a Toronto-friendly matchup problem in reverse: the Blue Jays themselves score in the opening frame just 24% of the time, dead last in MLB. The tension comes from Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor and Jack Perkins' shakier 54% NRFI rate, which is why the model sits near a 48% coin flip — well above the 10% the market implies.

• Coin flip — Jose Soriano's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 28% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -6.5 (10% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Lodolo's 71% first-inning shutout rate across 17 starts is the headline number, but he's cleared the frame in just two of his last five, and Skubal's 65% mark comes with a similar wobble at 3-of-5. Both lineups shrink against same-handed pitching — the Dodgers to 27%, the Reds to 18% — yet Dodger Stadium's 102 run factor nudges back the other way. At 49% scoreless versus a 51% market read, there's no real edge either direction.

• Coin flip — Nick Lodolo's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -121 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 18% against left-handers.