NRFI Results

Keider Montero has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 22 starts, and he's facing a Cleveland lineup that plates a run in the opening frame just 26% of the time — 24th in the majors, and only 25% against righties. Logan Allen's 100% mark comes from a single start, so there's little to lean on there, but Progressive Field's 94 run factor and Detroit's 29% rate versus lefties keep the model at 55% scoreless, a slight nudge past the market's 52%.

• NRFI lean — Keider Montero has worked a scoreless first in 86% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -121.5 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 26% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 32% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Ranger Suarez has kept the first inning clean in 78% of his 23 starts, including all five of his last five, and he draws an Orioles lineup that scores in the opening frame just 26% of the time — and only 14% against left-handers. Shane Baz counters at 65% NRFI with Boston's offense equally quiet early, though at 54% versus a 53% market price, the edge here is razor thin.

• NRFI lean — Ranger Suarez (78% NRFI) and Shane Baz (65%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 26% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 14% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Janson Junk has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 20 starts, including all five of his most recent, and that's the anchor here against a Cubs lineup that scores in the opening frame just 28% of the time. Shota Imanaga's 73% season mark backs it up, though only two of his last five first innings stayed scoreless. loanDepot park plays close to neutral at a 102 run factor, leaving a modest NRFI lean at 53%.

• NRFI lean — Shota Imanaga (73% NRFI) and Janson Junk (85%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Foster Griffin has kept the first inning clean in 81% of his 26 starts, including four of his last five, and he's facing a Detroit lineup that dips to 29% first-inning scoring against lefties. The unknown is Andrew Sears, who has no starts on the season, so there's nothing to lean on against a Cleveland offense that plates a run in the opening frame just 26% of the time. Progressive Field's 94 run factor nudges things quieter, though the model's 54% is a far cry from the book's 97%.

• NRFI lean — Foster Griffin has worked a scoreless first in 81% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (97% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 26% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 32% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Matt Wilkinson has yet to allow a first-inning run in his three big-league starts, a tiny sample but a clean one, and he's facing a Mets lineup that plates a run in the opening frame just 28% of the time — 26% against lefties. Nolan McLean's 73% NRFI mark over 26 starts and Citi Field's 96 park factor tilt things further toward zeros, though the model's 55% sits only slightly ahead of the market's 52%.

• NRFI lean — Matt Wilkinson (100% NRFI) and Nolan McLean (73%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -121 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Nick Martinez has kept the first inning clean in 84% of his 25 starts, and he's facing a Texas lineup that plates a first-inning run just 28% of the time — 27% against righties. The wrinkle is Trevor Williams, who has no starts on the season yet, so half this matchup is a blank page. Globe Life's 94 run factor nudges things quiet, and the model's 54% sits far above the book's implied 14%.

• NRFI lean — Nick Martinez has worked a scoreless first in 84% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -10 (14% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Walker Buehler has kept the first inning clean in 78% of his 27 starts, and Max Fried isn't far behind at 73% — a strong pairing to open a game at Petco Park, where the 94 run factor already trims scoring. Neither offense pushes hard early either: San Diego plates a first-inning run just 24% of the time, and the Yankees only 22% against righties. Modest NRFI edge.

• NRFI lean — Max Fried (73% NRFI) and Walker Buehler (78%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Erick Fedde has kept the first inning clean in just 38% of his 13 starts, and only once in his last five — a rough setup against a Twins lineup that puts runs on the board in the opening frame more often than any team in baseball (37%, and 38% versus righties). Zebby Matthews sits at a middling 53% NRFI, while Rate Field's 98 run factor barely dents the picture. The model's 42% scoreless read sits well under the market's implied 64%.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +1 (64% implied); the model has it 42%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.

Coors Field's 128 run factor does the heavy lifting here, because both starters have been solid in the opening frame — Andre Pallante at 67% NRFI across 24 starts, Ryan Feltner at 65% over 20. The Rockies and Cardinals each put up a first-inning run in 31% of games, and the altitude nudges the model to 41% scoreless, just under the market's 43%.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 31% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +118 (43% implied); the model has it 41%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.