NRFI Results

Jose Soriano and Tanner Bibee have each kept the first inning clean in all five of their last outings, and their season marks match up almost identically at 77% and 78% NRFI. Neither offense punishes early either — Toronto plates a first-inning run in just 24% of games, dead last in MLB, while Cleveland sits at 27%. Progressive Field's 94 run factor trims the margins further, and the model's 58% scoreless read sits six points above the book's 52%.

• NRFI lean — Jose Soriano (77% NRFI) and Tanner Bibee (78%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 58%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Jake Bennett has kept the first inning clean in 94% of his 16 starts, and Baltimore's offense hasn't been the type to spoil that — the Orioles have scored in the opening frame just 25% of the time, and only 12% against left-handers. Brandon Young adds his own zeroes with five straight scoreless firsts, and Camden Yards' neutral 100 run factor doesn't tilt things. The model's 57% NRFI sits six points above the market's 52%.

• NRFI lean — Jake Bennett (94% NRFI) and Brandon Young (74%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 12% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Logan Henderson has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 14 starts, and he's drawing a Cubs lineup that scores in the opening frame just 28% of the time — 21st in MLB, and the same 28% against righties. Kevin Gausman's 67% NRFI mark is solid rather than elite, but Wrigley's 94 run factor helps. The model's 54% barely beats the book's 52%.

• NRFI lean — Logan Henderson (86% NRFI) and Kevin Gausman (67%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -124 (52% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Sandy Alcantara has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 28 starts, including all five of his last five, and that's the anchor here. Michael Wacha isn't far behind at 81%, which matters against a Marlins offense that scores in the opening frame just 29% of the time. Kansas City's bats are livelier early, though the 27% mark versus righties tempers that, leaving a modest NRFI lean at 54%.

• NRFI lean — Sandy Alcantara (86% NRFI) and Michael Wacha (81%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Shane McClanahan has kept the first inning clean in 87% of his 23 starts, including all five of his last five, and that's a tough draw for a Texas lineup that only scores in the opening frame 24% of the time against lefties. Cal Quantrill's 82% NRFI rate holds up his end at Globe Life Field, a park playing 6% below average for runs.

• NRFI lean — Shane McClanahan (87% NRFI) and Cal Quantrill (82%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (36% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor does plenty of the work here, and Jack Perkins backs it up with a clean first in four of his last five starts (58% NRFI across 12). Kade Anderson's spotless 2-for-2 mark is too small a sample to lean on hard, but Oakland only puts a run on the board in the opening frame 28% of the time. Model and book agree at 55% — a mild NRFI tilt, nothing more.

• NRFI lean — Jack Perkins has worked a scoreless first in 58% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -137.5 (55% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.

Luis Castillo has kept the first inning clean in just 55% of his 22 starts, and only twice in his last five — a shaky mark to bring into Daikin Park against a Houston lineup that plates a run in the opening frame 34% of the time, third-most in MLB and 37% against right-handers. Hunter Brown pushes back hard at 79% NRFI, but the model still lands at 46% scoreless, a touch under the book's 51%.

• YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.