NRFI Results

Freddy Peralta has kept the first inning clean in 69% of his 26 starts, yet only two of his last five, and that wobble is what keeps this from tilting cleanly toward NRFI. Sean Manaea sits at 64% with four scoreless first frames in his last five, and while Tropicana Field's 95 run factor helps, Tampa Bay scores in the opening inning 32% of the time — seventh-most in MLB. The model's 51% barely separates it from the market's 50%.

• Coin flip — Freddy Peralta's 69% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Three starts is all AJ Smith-Shawver has on the board, and all three came with a clean first — encouraging, but far too small a sample to hang much on. Jake Irvin's 63% NRFI rate across 16 starts is the sturdier number, though the Braves and Nationals both plate a first-inning run in 31% of games, top-11 marks in the league. With Nationals Park playing slightly hot at 102, the model's 48% scoreless read sits right on the fence.

• Coin flip — AJ Smith-Shawver's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 31% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Randy Dobnak has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his eight starts, and that's the sturdiest number on the board. The counterweight is Kansas City's lineup, which puts a run up in the opening frame 31% of the time — 8th-most in MLB — against a Tyler Phillips who sits at 67% NRFI with a slightly run-friendly Kauffman backdrop. The model lands at 50% scoreless, a shade above the 45% implied, so it profiles as a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Randy Dobnak's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 31% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +107 (45% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Matthew Boyd has kept the first inning clean in 75% of his 16 starts, and that's the sturdiest number on the board here. The complication is Robert Gasser, whose 60% NRFI rate is far shakier against a Brewers-facing Cubs lineup that scores first-inning runs 29% of the time versus lefties — and Milwaukee's bats jump to 35% against southpaws. Wrigley's 94 run factor nudges it toward scoreless, but 53% is genuinely a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Matthew Boyd's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +107 (45% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.

Sean Burke has kept the first inning clean in 77% of his 22 starts, and Ronel Blanco sits at 75% across his four — solid marks that would normally point NRFI. The problem is who they're facing: Houston plates a first-inning run in 34% of games (3rd-most in MLB, 38% versus righties), and the White Sox aren't far behind at 32%. Model's 49% scoreless read basically matches the market's 50%.

• Coin flip — Sean Burke's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Gerrit Cole has kept the first inning clean in 82% of his 17 starts, including all five of his most recent — and the Yankees' bats, scoring in the opening frame just 27% of the time (21% against righties), don't do Grayson Rodriguez many favors either. The catch is the Angels, who put up first-inning runs 35% of the time, second-most in MLB. That split, plus a slightly hitter-friendly Angel Stadium, lands this near 49% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Gerrit Cole's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -124 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.

Jesus Luzardo has kept the first inning clean in 92% of his 26 starts, and Arizona's offense has only scored in the opening frame 26% of the time against left-handers — that side of the ledger points hard toward NRFI. The other side is why this sits near a coin flip: Eduardo Rodriguez is at 62%, and Philadelphia has plated a first-inning run in 38% of games versus southpaws inside a Chase Field that plays 6% above average for runs.

• Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 92% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (53% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.

Michael McGreevy has kept the first inning clean in 75% of his 24 starts, but the other half of the ledger drags this one back to even: Eric Lauer sits at just 50% NRFI across 16 outings and has protected the frame only twice in his last five. With both the Dodgers and Cardinals scoring in the first 31% of the time at a slightly run-friendly Dodger Stadium, 47% scoreless is a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Michael McGreevy's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (46% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.