NRFI Results

Trevor Rogers has kept the first inning clean in 87% of his 23 starts, including all five of his last five, which is the sturdiest number on the board here. The counterweight is Gordon Graceffo, who has no season starts to judge, and a Cardinals lineup that plates a first-inning run 32% of the time — ninth-most in MLB, 36% against lefties. Slight NRFI lean at Busch, but the unknown side keeps confidence low.

• NRFI lean — Trevor Rogers has worked a scoreless first in 87% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Noah Cameron has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 24 starts, including all five of his last five, and Toronto happens to be one of the league's slowest starters — scoring in the opening frame just 22% of the time, and only 17% against lefties. Arrighetti's 76% NRFI mark holds up his end, though Kansas City's bats (31% first-inning scoring) are the live wire here.

• NRFI lean — Noah Cameron (83% NRFI) and Spencer Arrighetti (76%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (51% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Jacob Misiorowski has kept the first inning clean in 87% of his 23 starts, including each of his last five, and he's facing a Mets lineup that scores in the opening frame just 26% of the time (24% versus righties). Sean Manaea counters with a 69% NRFI mark and five straight scoreless firsts. Citi Field's 96 run factor nudges things further down; the model's 56% sits right on the market's 57%.

• NRFI lean — Jacob Misiorowski (87% NRFI) and Sean Manaea (69%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -158 (57% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 27% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Landen Roupp has kept the first inning clean in 80% of his 25 starts, and he's drawing a Giants-friendly setting at Oracle Park, where the 94 run factor trims the margins. Jose Cabrera counters with a 75% NRFI mark through four starts, facing a San Francisco lineup that scores in the opening frame just 24% of the time — 21% against righties. The model's 56% edges past the book's 52%.

• NRFI lean — Jose Cabrera (75% NRFI) and Landen Roupp (80%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Gabriel Hughes has kept the first inning clean in just half of his eight starts, and he's drawing a Nationals lineup that plates a run in the opening frame 31% of the time — 10th-most in MLB. Colorado's bats rank sixth in first-inning scoring at 33%, so even Jake Irvin's 60% NRFI mark doesn't fully offset the offense on both sides at a slightly hitter-friendly Nationals Park.

• YRFI lean — the Colorado Rockies push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (6th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +108 (45% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.