NRFI Results

J.T. Ginn's 80% NRFI mark across 20 starts is the anchor here, and Boston's bats have plugged the first inning in just 26% of games. The catch is Erik Miller, who hasn't logged a season start, so there's no read on how he handles Oakland's lineup early. Fenway's 108 run factor adds enough uncertainty to keep this a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — J.T. Ginn's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 27% first-inning bats (21st-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 27% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.

Jared Jones has been a first-inning wall for Pittsburgh, posting an 83% NRFI mark across 12 starts and a clean 5-for-5 over his last five. Sean Manaea is shakier at 60%, but the Mets' bats rank 26th at scoring early and reach base in the first just 22% against righties. The model's 52% and the book's 36% split the difference into a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jared Jones' 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -128.5 (36% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Luzardo has been elite at keeping the board clean early, posting a 95% NRFI mark over 22 starts and going 5-for-5 in his last five, which lines up perfectly against a Toronto lineup that scores in the first just 23% of the time. The counterweight is Bieber, whose 50% NRFI rate and shaky 3/5 stretch keep Philadelphia's top-10 offense in play at Citizens Bank Park. That split lands it at a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 95% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.

Both starters carry sturdy first-inning marks here, with Ryan Gusto sitting at 78% NRFI over nine starts and Grayson Rodriguez close behind at 73%. That would tilt this scoreless, but each has wobbled recently — Gusto went 4-for-5 and Rodriguez just 2-for-5 in their last five. With Miami's bats quiet in the first (30%) and the Angels among the more active, the model's 48% reads like a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Ryan Gusto's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -112.5 (50% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

Randy Dobnak has kept the first inning clean in all four of his starts, and Matthew Boyd counters with a 75% NRFI mark for the Cubs. The tension comes from Kansas City's bats, which put up a run in the first 32% of the time — 10th-most in MLB and up to 37% against lefties like Boyd. That first-inning threat at Kauffman keeps this closer to a toss-up.

• Coin flip — Randy Dobnak's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 32% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +110 (44% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Jacob Misiorowski's 85% first-inning shutout rate over 20 starts is the anchor here, giving Milwaukee a strong edge on his side of the ledger. The wrinkle is his opponent: Minnesota's bats score in the first 33% of the time, sixth-most in MLB, though that dips to 32% against righties. Prielipp's more ordinary 60% NRFI keeps this near even, landing at a 52% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jacob Misiorowski's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -150 (56% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Michael McGreevy has been stingy early, posting an 80% NRFI mark across 20 starts, and the Rockies' bats work against him: St. Louis puts up a first-inning run just 30% of the time. The trouble is Lorenzen, whose 59% NRFI number leaves the door open for Colorado, a lineup that scores early in 35% of games. That tension keeps this one at a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Michael McGreevy's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 35% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Kumar Rocker's 47% first-inning clean rate over 19 starts is a bit shaky, but he's flipped that lately with four scoreless firsts in his last five outings. Cade Povich sits at an even 50% NRFI, and neither offense hits much in the opening frame — Baltimore scores first just 24% of the time, Texas only 22% against lefties. Globe Life's 94 run factor nudges toward quiet, but the model and market agree at 51% for a reason.

• Coin flip — Cade Povich's 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 30% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -116 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Cristian Javier has held the line early in three of his last five starts and boasts a 75% first-inning NRFI mark, which pairs nicely against a Padres lineup that plates a run in the opening frame just 24% of the time. The counterweight is Houston's bats, top-five in first-inning scoring and hitting righties well, so the model sees this closer to a toss-up at 52% than the book's 64%.

• Coin flip — Cristian Javier's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 33% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +1 (64% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.