NRFI Results

Parker Messick brings the strongest signal here, with a 91% first-inning scoreless rate across 22 starts for Cleveland. He faces a White Sox lineup that scores in the first just 31% of the time, and only 29% against lefties. Cleveland's own bats are quiet early too, plating a first-inning run in just 25% of games, which nudges this toward NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Parker Messick (91% NRFI) and Noah Schultz (62%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -117 (51% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 25% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

• Books price this NRFI at +4 (63% implied).
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.

Robbie Ray anchors this lean, posting an 80% first-inning shutout rate across 20 starts and clean frames in four of his last five. He should have little trouble with a Padres offense that scores in the opening frame just 24% of the time, 27th in MLB. Add Petco's below-average 94 run factor and the edge tilts toward NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Ronel Blanco (67% NRFI) and Robbie Ray (80%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.

Drew Rasmussen has posted a scoreless first in 80% of his 20 starts, including four of his last five, and that's the anchor here. T-Mobile Park's run factor of 83 only helps the case, as does a Seattle lineup that plates a first-inning run just 28% of the time and 25% against righties. Gilbert's 57% NRFI keeps this a modest lean rather than a strong one.

• NRFI lean — Drew Rasmussen has worked a scoreless first in 80% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -138 (55% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

• NRFI lean — Keider Montero has worked a scoreless first in 89% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -119 (51% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 18% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Both starters carry solid first-inning marks — Fried at 67% NRFI, Mahle at 59% — yet each has coughed up a run in three of his last five openers. That recent wobble, plus a Yankees lineup that scores in the first at a 32% clip (10th-most in MLB), nudges this one toward YRFI at a 47% scoreless projection.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 32% of games (10th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -115.5 (50% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

George Klassen has posted a first-inning run in half his two starts, and with such a thin sample it's tough to trust him against the Angels' bats, who plate a first-inning run 35% of the time — the most in MLB. Phillips leans the other way at 67% NRFI, but loanDepot park playing slightly above average nudges this toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Los Angeles Angels push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

Carmen Mlodzinski is the reason this leans quiet, posting a stellar 88% NRFI across eight starts and a Mets lineup that plates a first-inning run just 25% of the time — 26th in MLB. The counterweight is Zac Thornton, whose 33% NRFI mark keeps Pittsburgh in play. That tug-of-war lands right on the model's 51% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Carmen Mlodzinski's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.

Wheeler brings an elite 83% first-inning shutdown rate into Citizens Bank Park, and Toronto's bats have been quiet early, plating a run in just 22% of games — 29th in MLB. The catch is on the other side: Soriano's solid 71% NRFI mark faces a Phillies lineup that scores first 34% of the time, seventh-most in baseball. That tension keeps this one right around a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Zack Wheeler's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 34% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Cade Cavalli's 74% NRFI mark over 23 starts, with five straight clean first innings, anchors the case for a quiet opening frame at Nationals Park. But Chase Petty's spotless slate is just two starts, so there's little to trust yet, and Washington's lineup scores in the first 35% of the time — one of the busiest in MLB. Those crosscurrents leave this one near a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Cade Cavalli's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 35% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +105 (46% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Payton Tolle's 67% NRFI mark over 18 starts is the clear anchor here, especially against an Athletics lineup that plots a first-inning run just 28% of the time. The wobble comes from Jack Perkins, whose 44% NRFI rate leaves the door open, and Fenway's 108 run factor adds a bump. At 48% scoreless, it's a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Payton Tolle's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 28% first-inning bats (20th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (97% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

Drohan's the reason to lean toward zeros here — the Brewers lefty has posted an 83% first-inning NRFI across 12 starts, and Milwaukee's bats only strike in the opening frame 27% of the time. The counterweight is Zebby Matthews, whose 50% NRFI rate is shaky against a Twins offense that scores early in 34% of games. American Family Field's 94 run factor nudges things down, but this stays a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Shane Drohan's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 34% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.

Eovaldi's 70% first-inning shutout rate over 20 starts anchors the Texas side, and he's backed by a pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field (94 run factor). Baltimore's bats make his job easier too, plating a first-inning run just 23% of the time — 28th in MLB. Baz has been sharp lately with five straight clean firsts, though the model's 53% barely edges under the book's 55%.

• Coin flip — Nathan Eovaldi's 70% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 31% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -138 (55% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Kyle Leahy has been outstanding at keeping the board clean early, posting an 85% NRFI mark across 20 starts and going 5-for-5 in his last five. The tension is on the other side: Feltner sits at a more modest 69%, and Colorado's bats put a run up in the first 34% of the time — third-most in MLB. That split lands this one right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Kyle Leahy's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Roki Sasaki brings a sturdy 84% first-inning shutout rate into Chase Field, but that's the main thing keeping this near even. Merrill Kelly's 65% NRFI is more modest, and the Dodgers' bats plate a first-inning run 33% of the time — 9th-most in MLB. With the park playing hot at a 106 run factor, the model's 48% scoreless read makes this a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Roki Sasaki's 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -103 (47% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.