NRFI Results
First-inning leans for August 5, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
312-258
570 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
7-1 on 8 leans
NRFI 5-0 · YRFI 2-1
NRFI Leans
5
The Giants' bats are the story here, ranking dead-last in first-inning scoring at just 22% and only 21% against left-handers like Cody Bradford. Texas isn't much better facing southpaw Carson Whisenhunt, dropping to 26% versus lefties, which nudges this toward NRFI. Just note the thin samples — Whisenhunt has only four starts and Bradford none — so keep confidence modest.
- NRFI lean — Carson Whisenhunt has worked a scoreless first in 50% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
Both starters carry matching 73% NRFI marks, and Christian Scott has stranded the first inning in all five of his last starts for the Mets. Cleveland's offense only pushes across a first-inning run 25% of the time, dropping to 23% against righties, while New York's bats sit at 22% versus Bibee's hand. With Progressive Field's 94 run factor suppressing scoring, the lean tilts NRFI.
- NRFI lean — Christian Scott (73% NRFI) and Tanner Bibee (73%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
Kyle Harrison brings the top-shelf number here, blanking opponents in the first inning in 81% of his 16 starts, and Paul Skenes backs him with a strong 73% NRFI mark. Milwaukee's bats only push a run across in the first 27% of the time and just 25% against righties, while a park factor of 94 tamps down scoring — reason enough for the modest NRFI lean.
- NRFI lean — Paul Skenes (73% NRFI) and Kyle Harrison (81%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -150 (56% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
Bryan Woo has kept the first inning clean in 80% of his 20 starts, a much sturdier track record than Drew Anderson's spotless-but-tiny two-start sample. Seattle's bats have been quiet early, plating a first-inning run just 24% of the time against righties, and T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor further tamps down the offense. The lean is NRFI, though Anderson's thin résumé keeps confidence low.
- NRFI lean — Bryan Woo has worked a scoreless first in 80% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -128 (53% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
Casey Mize hasn't allowed a first-inning run all year, posting a spotless 100% NRFI across 16 starts including a 5-for-5 stretch lately. That's the anchor here, and it's reinforced by a Padres lineup that scores in the opening frame just 23% of the time and only 25% against lefties like Mitch Bratt. Chase Field's hitter-friendly tilt keeps this from being a runaway, but the edge points NRFI.
- NRFI lean — Casey Mize (100% NRFI) and Mitch Bratt (60%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
YRFI Leans
3
Coors Field and its 128 run factor tilt this toward a run right away, and Sugano's shaky 56% NRFI rate — with just two clean first innings in his last five starts — doesn't inspire confidence against a Rays lineup that plates a run in the first a third of the time. Nick Martinez's strong 85% NRFI mark is the lone counterweight here.
- YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 35% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +130.5 (41% implied); the model has it 40%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
Two of the most first-inning-active offenses collide here, with the Nationals plating a run in the opening frame 34% of the time (36% versus righties) and the Phillies matching that 34% clip. Jake Irvin's shakier 55% NRFI rate—and four scoreless firsts in his last five—gives Philadelphia a target, while a slightly hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park nudges this toward YRFI.
- YRFI lean — the Washington Nationals push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (5th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at +130 (41% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
Dean Kremer is the reason this leans YRFI — his 29% first-inning hold rate over seven starts is shaky, and he's coughed up a first-inning run in four of his last five. That plays right into a Minnesota lineup that scores early 35% of the time (third-most in MLB) and 38% against lefties. Noah Cameron's stingy 80% NRFI keeps it from tilting further.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
Coin Flips
7
Hunter Brown has kept the first inning clean in 78% of his nine starts, and he's facing a Blue Jays offense that plates a first-inning run just 22% of the time — 29th in MLB. The pull toward NRFI is real, but Houston's bats are a different story, scoring early in 34% of games (4th-most) against Jameson Taillon's shakier 67% clip. That tension leaves it a genuine 51% toss-up.
- Coin flip — Hunter Brown's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Shota Imanaga is the anchor here, sitting on an 81% NRFI mark across 21 starts and clean in four of his last five first innings — that alone tilts things toward a quiet frame. The wobble is on the other side: Eric Lauer's 54% NRFI rate and a Dodgers lineup that scores in the first 32% of the time. Wrigley's below-average run factor (94) helps keep this a near coin flip.
- Coin flip — Shota Imanaga's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +110 (44% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
Trevor Rogers has been outstanding out of the gate for Baltimore, posting an 84% NRFI mark over 19 starts and holding scoreless in each of his last five first innings. Reid Detmers counters at 71% for the Angels, but LAA's league-leading first-inning offense (38% against lefties) keeps this from tilting fully toward the under. The model's 52% scoreless read lands it in coin-flip territory.
- Coin flip — Trevor Rogers' 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -130 (37% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 10% against left-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
Jacob Lopez has been near-airtight to open games, posting a 92% NRFI mark across 13 starts and a clean 5-for-5 over his last five. The tension comes from Rhett Lowder, whose 60% first-inning rate is far shakier, and both offenses plate a run in the first just 28% of the time. That split of a dominant lefty against a leakier righty is why this sits as a near coin-flip, with a slight lean toward silence.
- Coin flip — Jacob Lopez's 92% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 28% first-inning bats (20th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Two starters who limit early damage headline this one: Pallante has posted a 67% NRFI mark across 21 starts, while Will Warren checks in at 70% over 20. But neither has been airtight lately — Pallante's given up a first-inning run in all five recent outings — and with the Yankees scoring in the opening frame 32% of the time, this lands as a genuine coin flip at 48%.
- Coin flip — Will Warren's 70% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 32% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Both starters are riding perfect first-inning streaks — Sean Burke and Sonny Gray have each posted a scoreless opener in five straight starts, with Burke sitting at 76% NRFI on the season. That pushes toward the under, but Fenway's 108 run factor and Chicago's lineup, which plates a first-inning run 31% of the time, keep this a genuine coin flip at 50%.
- Coin flip — Sean Burke's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Bryce Elder brings the sharpest first-inning number to Truist Park, sitting scoreless in 80% of his 20 starts, and Eury Perez isn't far behind at 67% with five straight clean firsts. Both offenses light up the opening frame just 31% of the time, yet the park's slightly run-friendly 102 factor keeps this at a genuine 49% coin flip.
- Coin flip — Bryce Elder's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -115.5 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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