NRFI Results

Grayson Rodriguez brings a strong 70% first-inning NRFI mark into Camden Yards, and Baltimore's bats have been quiet early, scoring in the first just 24% of the time. The tension is on the other side: Cade Povich has posted a shaky 33% NRFI over three starts and now faces an Angels lineup that leads MLB in first-inning scoring. Those competing forces leave this one right at 49%.

• Coin flip — Grayson Rodriguez's 70% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 36% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109.5 (49% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.

J.T. Ginn's 79% NRFI mark over 19 starts is the standout here, and both offenses rank in the bottom third at plating a first-inning run — Cincinnati at 28%, Oakland at 28%. The catch is Brady Singer, who sits at just 53% NRFI, and Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor tilts things. That tension leaves this a genuine coin flip at 49%.

• Coin flip — J.T. Ginn's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 28% first-inning bats (20th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Jesus Luzardo has been nearly untouchable in the opening frame, posting a 95% NRFI over 21 starts and holding the line in each of his last five. The tension comes from the other side: Carson Palmquist sits at just 60% NRFI over five starts, and Philadelphia's bats have scored first 33% of the time. Luzardo's dominance offsets that shaky matchup, landing this squarely at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 95% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 35% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.

Hunter Dobbins has kept the first frame clean in three of four starts this year, a 75% NRFI clip that gives the Cardinals a solid edge against a Yankees lineup that scores early just 33% of the time (29% versus righties). Ryan Weathers has been shakier at 62%, and with St. Louis' bats plating a first-inning run 33% against lefties, this one grades as a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Hunter Dobbins' 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -117 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Sandoval has kept the first inning clean in all four of his starts, and Martin brings an 85% NRFI mark across 20 outings, so both arms tilt this scoreless. The catch is Fenway's 108 run factor and the White Sox lineup scoring first 32% of the time, enough to keep the model at a near-even 52%.

• Coin flip — Patrick Sandoval's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (90% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

Grant Holmes has been airtight early, posting an 83% NRFI mark across 18 starts and going a perfect 5-for-5 in his last five. Ryan Gusto counters with a 75% clip and four scoreless first innings over his last five, and neither the Braves (32%) nor Marlins (31%) score in the opening frame all that often. Even at Truist Park, the arms tilt this toward a scoreless first — hence the true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Grant Holmes' 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Randy Dobnak has kept the first inning clean in all three of his starts, and Joe Ryan brings a solid 71% NRFI mark across 21 outings — reasons this leans quiet. But the Twins are dangerous early, scoring in the first 35% of the time (2nd-most in MLB) and 36% against righties, which is why the model settles at a true 48% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Randy Dobnak's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 35% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -107 (48% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Trey Yesavage brings a solid 65% first-inning zeros mark over 17 starts, and he's facing a Toronto-friendly setup where the Blue Jays rank 29th in first-inning scoring at just 22%. The wild card is Hayden Wesneski, whose 0% NRFI comes from a single start — far too thin to read into. With Houston's bats scoring early 35% of the time, this one sits squarely on the fence at 50%.

• Coin flip — Trey Yesavage's 65% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 35% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Chase Field's hitter-friendly park factor (106) is the main tension here, offsetting two steady arms who both sit around 62-63% NRFI on the season. Eduardo Rodriguez has cleaned things up lately with a scoreless first in four of his last five, and San Diego's bats rank near the bottom, plating a run in the opening frame just 23% of the time. Everything nets out to a genuine 49% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Randy Vasquez's 63% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 30% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.