NRFI Results
First-inning leans for August 3, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
306-254
560 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
3-1 on 4 leans
NRFI 2-1 · YRFI 1-0
NRFI Leans
3
Cal Quantrill has kept the first frame scoreless in 83% of his six starts, and Logan Webb backs him with a 78% NRFI rate across 18 outings. The Giants make this lean lean even harder, plating a first-inning run in just 22% of games — dead last in MLB — and only 18% against righties. A pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field at 94 helps too.
- NRFI lean — Logan Webb (78% NRFI) and Cal Quantrill (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -123.5 (52% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 18% against right-handers.
- NRFI lean — Justin Wrobleski (71% NRFI) and Matthew Boyd (82%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
Michael King has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 20 starts, and that top-end mark headlines this one at Chase Field. San Diego's bats have been quiet early too, scoring in the first just 23% of the time and only 23% against righties. Brandon Pfaadt's 78% NRFI rate rounds out a matchup that tilts scoreless despite the park's 106 run factor.
- NRFI lean — Michael King (85% NRFI) and Brandon Pfaadt (78%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -117.5 (51% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
1
Coors Field and its 128 park factor headline this lean toward a first-inning run, and Michael Lorenzen isn't helping the Rockies' cause with just a 62% NRFI mark and runs allowed in three of his last five openers. Ian Seymour's 86% NRFI rate is the one thing pushing back, but both offenses cross the plate in the first about a third of the time, tilting this YRFI.
- YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 34% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +118 (43% implied); the model has it 39%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
4
Andrew Alvarez has kept the first frame clean in all seven of his starts, and he's ridden that to a 5-for-5 mark over his last five outings. The counterweight is a Phillies offense that plates a first-inning run 38% of the time against lefties, so Nola's job at 76% NRFI could get tested. At 49% scoreless, this projects as close to even as it gets.
- Coin flip — Andrew Alvarez's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 34% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
Cam Schlittler brings the sharpest number here, sitting scoreless in the first in 86% of his 22 starts, and McGreevy isn't far behind at 79%. Neither offense does much early either — the Yankees plate a first-inning run just 27% of the time against righties, the Cardinals 25%. The model's slim 52% NRFI edge over the book's 50% keeps this a genuine coin flip.
- Coin flip — Cam Schlittler's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 33% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -112 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Both starters carry sturdy first-inning numbers, with Bubba Chandler at 75% NRFI over 20 starts and Brandon Sproat close behind at 71%. Milwaukee's bats have been quiet early, plating a run in just 27% of games and 25% against righties, while Pittsburgh's offense is a bit livelier at 36% versus right-handers. That split keeps the model near a true coin flip at 53% scoreless.
- Coin flip — Bubba Chandler's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -124 (96% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
Cristian Javier's spotless first innings (67% NRFI, though across just three starts) do the heavy lifting for Houston here, especially with Toronto's bats ranking 29th in first-inning scoring and posting first-inning runs in only 22% of games. The wrinkle is Bieber, whose 43% NRFI rate and Houston's dangerous top-of-order bats (35% first-inning scoring) tug the other way — landing this at a true 49% coin flip.
- Coin flip — Cristian Javier's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 35% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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