NRFI Results

Bryan Woo brings an 84% first-inning shutout rate into Dodger Stadium, and Roki Sasaki nearly matches him at 83% over 18 starts — both with four clean firsts in their last five. The Mariners' bats offer little pushback, scoring in the opening frame just 27% of the time and only 24% against righties. That points the lean toward NRFI, with the model at 53% versus the book's 49%.

• NRFI lean — Bryan Woo (84% NRFI) and Roki Sasaki (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Target Field plays slightly hitter-friendly at a 104 run factor, and Minnesota's bats bring the reason this leans YRFI: the Twins post first-inning runs 36% of the time, the most in MLB, and 37% against lefties like Noah Cameron. Cameron's strong 79% NRFI mark and Ober's 71% keep it close, though — the model and book both land at 47% scoreless.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -103 (47% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Jake Irvin is the reason this leans YRFI — just a 50% first-inning shutout rate over 10 starts, and he's coughed up runs in three of his last five. Atlanta's bats aren't especially aggressive early (31% of games), but Washington's lineup ranks fourth in MLB scoring in the first, a nice matchup against Irvin. Grant Holmes (82% NRFI) is the one thing keeping this close.

• YRFI lean — the Washington Nationals push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +109.5 (45% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.

Great American Ball Park's hitter-friendly 106 run factor tilts things toward offense, which helps explain the YRFI lean despite Rhett Lowder posting a solid 57% first-inning shutout rate. The bigger wild card is Yohan Ramirez, who hasn't made a start this season, leaving the Pirates' bullpen arm untested against a Cincinnati lineup that plates a run in the first 28% of the time versus righties.

• YRFI lean — Great American Ball Park (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Pittsburgh Pirates score early in 32% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Shane McClanahan is the anchor here, sitting scoreless in the first through 84% of his 19 starts and four of his last five, and the Rangers have only pushed a first-inning run 24% of the time against lefties. The wild card is Cole Winn, who has no season starts yet, so that thin sample keeps this closer to a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Shane McClanahan's 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 34% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

Sean Burke has been steady out of the gate, posting a 75% first-inning shutout rate over 16 starts and holding it four of his last five. The trouble is the other side: Ryan Weathers sits at just 60% NRFI and has stumbled in three of his last five. That split leaves this one right on the fence at 47% scoreless, a touch under the book's 53%.

• Coin flip — Sean Burke's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Javier Assad has been a first-inning wall for the Cubs, sitting scoreless in 88% of his eight starts and holding a clean 5-for-5 over his last five. The problem is the other side: Andre Pallante's 65% NRFI rate is much shakier, and while the Cardinals only plate a first-inning run 25% of the time against righties, that gap keeps this closer to a coin flip at 52%.

• Coin flip — Javier Assad's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Nolan McLean brings the stronger first-inning résumé here, with a 75% NRFI mark across 20 starts, while Eury Perez counters at 65%. The Mets' bats have gone quiet early, plating a run in just 27% of games and only 23% against righties. Still, Miami scores first-frame runs 31% of the time, and the model's 52% scoreless call lands just shy of the book's 56% — a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Nolan McLean's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 31% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -150 (56% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Sonny Gray is the anchor here, carrying a 67% first-inning NRFI mark with five straight clean openers, and both offenses are quiet early — Oakland scores in the first just 28% of the time, Boston only 23%. The pull toward YRFI is the ballpark, where Sutter Health's 117 run factor and Mason Barnett's total lack of a season track record leave things genuinely uncertain at 48%.

• Coin flip — Sonny Gray's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 28% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +112 (44% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

• Coin flip — JP Sears' 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the San Francisco Giants' 22% first-inning bats (29th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied).
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.