NRFI Results

Jesus Luzardo has been nearly untouchable in the opening frame, posting a 95% NRFI mark across 20 starts and a clean 5-for-5 over his last five. The tension is on the other side: Ryan Gusto sits at a more modest 71%, and the Phillies push a run across in the first 34% of the time. That split keeps this one hovering right around a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 95% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 34% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -134 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Jared Jones has been a first-inning wall for Pittsburgh, posting an 80% NRFI mark across 10 starts, while Eduardo Rodriguez sits at a solid 60% for Arizona. The Pirates only put up a run in the opening frame 21% of the time against lefties, which helps E-Rod's side. Still, the model lands at 48% versus the book's 51%, keeping this a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jared Jones' 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Yesavage and Littell offer near-identical first-inning résumés — 63% and 62% NRFI respectively — but both have wobbled lately, each stranding a scoreless first in just 2-3 of their last five. The tiebreaker is on offense: Washington's bats put up a run in the first 36% of the time (38% versus righties), while Toronto's lineup ranks 28th at 23%. That split leaves this a true 48% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Trey Yesavage's 63% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 36% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -102 (48% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Sean Manaea's split first-inning results — a 50% NRFI mark across eight starts with runs in three of his last five — leave little conviction, and AJ Smith-Shawver hasn't logged a start yet to add any read. Neither lineup ignites early either, with the Mets scoring in the first just 27% of the time and Atlanta at 32%. Citi Field's 96 run factor nudges toward quiet, but this stays a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Sean Manaea's 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.

Trevor Rogers has been outstanding in opening frames, holding an 83% NRFI mark across 18 starts and going a perfect 5-for-5 in his last five. He faces a Tigers lineup that plates a first-inning run just 28% of the time against lefties, while Baltimore's bats have scored early in only 11% of games versus left-handers. Skubal's 64% NRFI makes this closer than it looks, hence the coin-flip.

• Coin flip — Trevor Rogers' 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 33% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -148 (56% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 11% against left-handers.

Kyle Hart has kept the first frame clean in both of his brief outings, and San Diego's bats rank 30th in first-inning scoring at just 22%. The wrinkle is Gabriel Hughes, who's held a scoreless first in only a third of his three starts, and Colorado's lineup lights up early at a 34% clip. Thin samples on both arms keep this one right around a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Gabriel Hughes' 33% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 34% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109.5 (49% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.

MacKenzie Gore brings a strong 71% first-inning NRFI rate into Tropicana Field, and he's held the line in four of his last five starts. On the other side, Casey Legumina's 67% mark comes from just three starts, so there's less to lean on. With both Tampa Bay and Texas scoring in the first only about a third of the time, this one truly sits near a toss-up.

• Coin flip — MacKenzie Gore's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Joey Cantillo has been a first-inning brick wall, posting an 81% NRFI mark across 21 starts and going 5-for-5 clean in his last five. The counterweight is Brady Singer, sitting at just 50% NRFI, plus Great American's run-friendly 106 park factor. With Cincinnati scoring first only 27% of the time, the model splits it right down the middle at 51% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Joey Cantillo's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 27% first-inning bats (21st-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -112.5 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Matthew Boyd's 80% first-inning shutout rate over 10 starts is the sharpest edge on the board, and he's held the line in four of his last five. The Cubs offense adds cover on the other side, plating a first-inning run just 25% of the time and only 26% against righties like Dustin May. Still, May's more modest 63% NRFI leaves this a true coin flip at 51%.

• Coin flip — Matthew Boyd's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -124 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Two lefties with pristine first-inning marks headline this one: Patrick Sandoval has kept the zero on the board in all three starts, and Jacob Lopez has done it in 92% of his 12 outings. That should tilt things NRFI, but Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor is a real counterweight, which is why the model still calls it a near coin flip at 51%.

• Coin flip — Patrick Sandoval's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 28% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +123 (42% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.

Emerson Hancock has been stingy early, posting an 82% first-inning shutout rate across 17 starts, and that's the reason Seattle's side of this looks solid. The other half is murkier: Eric Lauer sits at just 50% NRFI over 12 starts, and Dodger Stadium's 102 run factor doesn't help him. Those competing signals leave this one right at a 49% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Emerson Hancock's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.