NRFI Results

Chase Burns has been nearly untouchable in the first frame, posting a 94% NRFI mark across 18 starts and holding the line in all five of his last outings. Slade Cecconi backs him up at a solid 68%, and neither offense does much early — Cleveland scores in the first just 23% of the time, one of the lowest rates in baseball. Great American's 106 run factor is the lone caution here.

• NRFI lean — Slade Cecconi (68% NRFI) and Chase Burns (94%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -107 (49% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Chris Sale has been near-untouchable in the first frame, posting an 89% NRFI mark across 18 starts and holding the line in each of his last five. Christian Scott chips in a solid 71% first-inning clean rate, and Citi Field's 96 park factor plays slightly below average for runs. The Mets scoring in only 27% of first innings tilts this toward NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Chris Sale (89% NRFI) and Christian Scott (71%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Michael King has been elite at keeping the board clean early, posting an 84% NRFI mark across 19 starts, which anchors this lean toward a quiet first at Petco. San Diego's bats rarely strike early either, scoring in the opening frame just 22% of the time — 30th in MLB. Lorenzen and Colorado's more active offense add some risk, but the model's 54% edges past the market's 50%.

• NRFI lean — Michael Lorenzen (60% NRFI) and Michael King (84%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Logan Henderson has been dominant in opening frames, posting an 88% NRFI mark over eight starts with five straight clean firsts. He faces a Giants lineup that plots up in the first just 23% of the time and only 18% against righties, one of the league's quieter offenses early. Add Roupp's own 80% NRFI rate and pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, and the lean tilts scoreless.

• NRFI lean — Logan Henderson (88% NRFI) and Landen Roupp (80%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 18% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Minnesota's bats are the reason this leans YRFI — the Twins score in the first inning 37% of the time, the highest rate in MLB, and 36% against righties like Seth Lugo. Lugo hasn't been a shutdown starter either, posting a middling 50% first-inning scoreless rate. Add a Target Field park factor of 104, and the model's 41% NRFI chance sits well under the book's 49%.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 41%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

• YRFI lean — the Los Angeles Dodgers push a first-inning run across in 31% of games (16th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +104 (46% implied).
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB.

Both starters own strong first-inning marks — Bubba Chandler at 79% NRFI over 19 outings and a perfect 5-for-5 in his last five, with Brandon Pfaadt right behind at 75%. Yet Pittsburgh's bats plate a run in the first 33% of the time, and Arizona 31%, keeping this squarely a coin flip at PNC Park.

• Coin flip — Bubba Chandler's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Troy Melton has kept the first frame clean in 60% of his ten starts and four of his last five, giving Detroit a firm edge on his side. The tension is on the other end: Dean Kremer sits at just 33% NRFI, and the Tigers' bats plate a first-inning run 34% of the time against righties. Those crosscurrents leave this one right around a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Troy Melton's 60% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Aaron Nola and Sandy Alcantara both bring elite first-inning resumes into loanDepot park, with Nola posting an 80% NRFI over 20 starts and Alcantara at 81% across 21 — and he's fired five clean first innings in a row. The offenses tilt slightly the other way, as Philadelphia plates a run in the first 34% of the time, keeping this a genuine 50/50.

• Coin flip — Sandy Alcantara's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 34% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

• Coin flip — Griffin Jax's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied).
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Cade Cavalli's 71% first-inning shutdown rate over 21 starts is the anchor here, and Toronto's bats give him a good shot — the Blue Jays rank 28th in MLB scoring in the opening frame, plating a run just 23% of the time. The tension comes from the other side: Shane Bieber sits at a shaky 50% NRFI, and Washington's lineup scores early in 37% of games versus righties. That split is why the model lands at 49%, dead even with the book.

• Coin flip — Cade Cavalli's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 35% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -106 (49% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Gavin Williams has been a first-inning wall for Cleveland, posting a 75% NRFI rate and a clean 5-for-5 in his last five starts. The problem is everything else pulls the other way: Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor inflates offense, and Brady Singer's 50% NRFI is far shakier. With both lineups quiet early, the model splits it right down the middle at 50%.

• Coin flip — Gavin Williams' 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 27% first-inning bats (23rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -112.5 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Gerrit Cole brings a 73% first-inning scoreless rate into Rate Field, and Anthony Kay counters at 67% with four clean first innings over his last five starts. The tension is New York's bat, which plates a run in the first 34% of the time and jumps to 41% against lefties like Kay. That split keeps the model at 48%, essentially a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Gerrit Cole's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -124 (94% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 41% against left-handers.

• Coin flip — Colin Rea's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied).
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB.

Peter Lambert's 82% first-inning NRFI mark, backed by five straight clean opening frames, is the strongest arm signal here, and Reid Detmers matches him with 75%. The tension comes from two potent offenses: the Angels score first-inning runs 35% of the time and Houston 36%, both among MLB's top three. That standoff explains the near coin-flip at 47%.

• Coin flip — Peter Lambert's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 36% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 16% against left-handers.

Jake Bennett hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his 10 starts, a perfect NRFI mark that would normally scream shutdown. The catch is Sutter Health Park, where a 117 run factor plays as a hitter's haven and pushes back against the arms. With Gage Jump at 82% NRFI and both lineups slow to strike early, the model's slight 52% scoreless lean makes sense as a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jake Bennett's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 28% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +105.5 (46% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.