NRFI Results

Parker Messick's 90% first-inning shutout rate over 20 starts headlines this one, and Cleveland's bats do little to threaten Drew Rasmussen — the Guardians rank 28th at scoring in the first, plating a run just 24% of the time. The Rays are livelier against lefties (29%), but Tropicana Field's below-average run factor and both arms' strong recent form nudge this toward NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Parker Messick (90% NRFI) and Drew Rasmussen (78%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -157 (57% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Walker Buehler brings a strong 80% first-inning shutdown rate into loanDepot park, and he's opposed by a Padres offense that plots first-inning runs just 23% of the time — dead last in MLB. Janson Junk matches up nicely too at 77% NRFI, keeping this leaning toward a quiet opening frame despite Miami's slightly better bats.

• NRFI lean — Walker Buehler (80% NRFI) and Janson Junk (77%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -107 (49% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Jose Soriano brings a clean first-inning slate into Oracle Park, posting a 70% NRFI over 20 starts and staying scoreless in all five of his last outings. That pairs nicely with a Giants lineup that plates a first-inning run just 23% of the time — 29th in MLB, and only 20% against righties. Whisenhunt's 100% NRFI is real but comes on just two starts, so lean cautiously.

• NRFI lean — Jose Soriano has worked a scoreless first in 70% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.

Reynaldo Lopez is the story here — just a 22% NRFI rate across nine starts and only one scoreless first in his last five outings. Atlanta's offense adds pressure too, scoring in the opening frame 31% of the time and 36% against righties. Baltimore's bats have been quiet early, but Lopez's shaky starts push this one toward a YRFI lean.

• YRFI lean — the Atlanta Braves push a first-inning run across in 31% of games (14th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Framber Valdez's steady 68% NRFI mark is the anchor here, but he's up against a Royals side that's put a run on the board in the first in only 31% of games this year. The bigger swing is Luinder Avila, sitting at a coin-flip 50% NRFI and trending the wrong way with runs allowed in three of his last five first innings. That vulnerability nudges this toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Detroit Tigers push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (9th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -107 (48% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Minnesota's bats set the tone here — no lineup in baseball scores in the first inning more often, plating a run 36% of the time and 34% against lefties like Jeffrey Springs. Springs hasn't helped his own cause, holding a scoreless first in just 47% of his 19 starts. Even with Prielipp's cleaner 62% NRFI mark, the run-friendly Target Field backdrop nudges this toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +105.5 (46% implied); the model has it 43%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Erick Fedde's shaky 40% NRFI rate over 10 starts is the big red flag here, and Houston's offense — 3rd in MLB at scoring first-inning runs and doing it 40% of the time against righties — is exactly the kind of lineup to punish it. Ronel Blanco carries a clean 100% mark, but that's just one start, so lean YRFI with low confidence.

• YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.

Kohl Drake's 100% first-inning clean sheet comes with a giant asterisk — it's a single career start, so there's almost nothing to lean on. On the other side, Miles Mikolas has kept the frame scoreless in 71% of his seven starts, but Washington's bats rank second in MLB for first-inning offense. The thin Drake sample keeps this one a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Miles Mikolas' 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 36% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +120 (42% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Braxton Ashcraft's 74% NRFI mark over 19 starts is the sturdiest number on the board, though he's coughed up first-inning runs in four of his last five outings. Working in his favor is a Cubs lineup that scores in the first just 24% of the time and only 25% against righties. The Pirates offense poses more threat, keeping this one right at a 51% flip.

• Coin flip — Braxton Ashcraft's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Ranger Suarez brings the stronger first-inning résumé here, sitting scoreless in 69% of his 16 starts, and he faces a Toronto lineup that plates a run in the first just 17% of the time against lefties. Kevin Gausman's 60% NRFI rate and Fenway's run-friendly 108 park factor keep this from tilting further, landing it at a near coin flip.

• Coin flip — Ranger Suarez's 69% NRFI is the case for the under; the Boston Red Sox's 24% first-inning bats (25th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -141 (55% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.

Freddy Peralta's 75% first-inning shutout rate paces this one for the Mets, and Emmet Sheehan backs it with a solid 65% NRFI across 17 starts. Working against the arms: the Dodgers' bats plate a first-inning run 31% of the time, and Citi Field's 96 park factor plays slightly below average. That tension lands it right on a coin flip at 52% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Freddy Peralta's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Jacob Misiorowski brings the standout number here, holding an 83% first-inning shutout rate across 18 starts, and American Family Field's 94 run factor plays slightly below average. But Colorado's bats crack the scoreboard early 34% of the time — fifth-most in MLB — while Kyle Freeland's more modest 65% NRFI keeps things balanced, landing this one squarely at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jacob Misiorowski's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Kyle Leahy has been a first-inning wall for St. Louis, posting an 83% NRFI mark across 18 starts and clean frames in all five of his last outings. The counterweight is Andrew Abbott, whose coin-flip 50% NRFI and 2-of-5 recent scoreless first innings drag Cincinnati back toward even. With Busch playing neutral, the model lands right at 49%.

• Coin flip — Kyle Leahy's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Logan Gilbert brings the sharper first-inning résumé here, sitting scoreless in 58% of his starts and four of his last five, while deGrom has held the fort in just two of his past five openers. Neither offense does much early — Texas plates a first-inning run 29% of the time against righties, Seattle just 26% — yet the model's 48% scoreless read trails the book's 57%, keeping this one genuinely split.

• Coin flip — Logan Gilbert's 58% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 31% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -150 (57% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Both starters have kept the first frame clean at high clips — Will Warren at 72% NRFI, Cristopher Sanchez at 75% — which normally tilts toward the under. The catch is the Yankees' bats, who put up a first-inning run 42% of the time against lefties like Sanchez. That tension between strong arms and a dangerous NYY lineup lands this one right at a coin flip, with the model's 47% just under the book's 52%.

• Coin flip — Cristopher Sanchez's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 35% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 42% against left-handers.