NRFI Results
First-inning leans for July 24, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
279-223
502 graded
56%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
3-4 on 7 leans
NRFI 2-2 · YRFI 1-2
NRFI Leans
4
Both starters have been shutdown men in the opening frame, with Grant Holmes at 81% NRFI and Trevor Rogers at 82% — and each has kept the first scoreless in all five of his last outings. Baltimore's bats rank near the bottom in first-inning scoring at 24%, while Atlanta dips to 24% against lefties like Rogers. That combination tilts things toward a quiet first at Camden Yards.
- NRFI lean — Grant Holmes (81% NRFI) and Trevor Rogers (82%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -102 (48% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
Two lefties with strong opening frames anchor this one: Joey Cantillo carries an 80% NRFI mark across 20 starts, while Shane McClanahan sits even higher at 83% over 18. Cleveland's bats haven't helped, ranking 27th in first-inning scoring at just 24% and only 21% against left-handers. That combination nudges things toward NRFI, right in line with the book's 54%.
- NRFI lean — Joey Cantillo (80% NRFI) and Shane McClanahan (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (54% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 35% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
Bryce Miller has been stingy early all year, posting a 89% first-inning shutout rate across nine starts, and the Rangers only put a run on the board in the opening frame 30% of the time (27% against righties). MacKenzie Gore's 70% NRFI mark is a notch softer, but with a pitcher-friendly Globe Life run factor of 94 and Seattle scoring first in just 28% of games, the lean tilts toward NRFI.
- NRFI lean — Bryce Miller (89% NRFI) and MacKenzie Gore (70%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (55% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
Logan Webb's 81% first-inning shutdown rate over 16 starts anchors this NRFI lean, and Grayson Rodriguez backs it up at 75% across eight outings. The Giants offense is the bigger tell here, plating a run in the first just 22% of the time — 30th in MLB — and only 19% against righties. Oracle Park's 94 run factor tilts things further toward zeros.
- NRFI lean — Grayson Rodriguez (75% NRFI) and Logan Webb (81%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -121 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 19% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
3
Everything hinges on the unknown here: Beck Way makes his season debut with no starter sample, and that uncertainty is why the model can't get comfortable with a scoreless frame. Tarik Skubal helps the NRFI case with a 62% mark over 13 starts, but both offenses score in the first at roughly a third of their games — 33% for Detroit, 32% for Kansas City. The result tilts YRFI.
- YRFI lean — the Detroit Tigers push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (9th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
Washington's bats set the tone here — they push a run across in the first 36% of the time, second-most in MLB, and 35% against lefties like Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez has kept the first frame clean in just 58% of his starts, while Carson Palmquist has been a coin flip at 50% NRFI through four outings. That tilts things toward a YRFI, and the model's 44% scoreless number sits well under the book's implied 64%.
- YRFI lean — the Washington Nationals push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at +1 (64% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
Jacob Lopez has been a NRFI machine, posting a scoreless first in 91% of his 11 starts and going 5-for-5 lately, which cuts hard against a YRFI lean. The tension comes from Minnesota's bats, who plate a first-inning run in a league-leading 37% of games (39% vs lefties). Zebby Matthews sits at just 50% NRFI, tipping this slightly toward an early run.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at +101 (47% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
8
Shane Drohan has been elite at keeping the board clean early, posting a 90% NRFI mark across 10 starts and clean firsts in all five of his last outings. The tension comes from Colorado's bats, which score in the first 34% of the time and 36% against righties—wait, they face the lefty Drohan here. Sugano's shakier 56% NRFI is what nudges this to a true coin flip.
- Coin flip — Shane Drohan's 90% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 34% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
Matthew Boyd and Jared Jones enter as mirror images, each carrying a 78% NRFI rate and four scoreless first innings in their last five starts. That pitching gives an edge to quiet openings, but Pittsburgh's bats push back — they score in the first 34% of the time, sixth-most in MLB. With the model and market both landing on 52%, this one's a genuine coin flip.
- Coin flip — Matthew Boyd's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 34% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Jesus Luzardo brings a spotless 5-for-5 first-inning stretch and a 95% NRFI mark across 19 starts, giving Philadelphia a strong arm to lean on. The tension comes from the Yankees' bats, who plate a first-inning run 35% of the time and jump to 45% against lefties like Luzardo. With Schlittler solid at 85% himself, the model's 52% split lands this squarely in coin-flip territory.
- Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 95% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 35% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 45% against left-handers.
Roki Sasaki has been terrific keeping the board clean early, posting an 82% first-inning shutout rate across 17 starts with four scoreless firsts in his last five. The tension is Sean Manaea on the other side, whose 43% NRFI mark opens the door for the Dodgers' lineup that plates a first-inning run 31% of the time against lefties. That split explains the 51% coin flip.
- Coin flip — Roki Sasaki's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -102 (47% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
Ryan Gusto has been steady in the first frame, posting a 67% NRFI mark across six starts and holding the line in four of his last five. That should keep San Diego's bats — quiet in the opening inning at a league-worst 23% clip — in check. But German Marquez's shaky 44% NRFI muddies things, leaving this one right around a coin flip at 49%.
- Coin flip — Ryan Gusto's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 31% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
Sandoval's 100% NRFI comes with an obvious asterisk — just two starts on the books — which is why the model keeps this one honest at 52% scoreless. What tilts it toward a quiet first is the offense: Boston plates a first-inning run just 23% of the time, and Toronto's 17% mark against lefties is even thinner. Fenway's 108 park factor is the one counterweight.
- Coin flip — Trey Yesavage's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Toronto Blue Jays' 24% first-inning bats (26th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -118.5 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
Davis Martin brings an eye-popping 89% NRFI mark into Rate Field, and he's held the first inning scoreless in each of his last five starts. But the Astros lean the other way — they're the third-most likely offense to plate a run in the opening frame at 36%, and 41% against right-handers. That tension keeps this one right at a coin flip, with the model nudging 52% scoreless.
- Coin flip — Davis Martin's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 36% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -107 (49% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.
Dustin May brings the stronger first-inning résumé here, posting a 61% NRFI mark across 18 starts, while Rhett Lowder sits at 54% over 13. Both offenses stay quiet early too — the Cardinals plate a first-inning run just 27% of the time against righties, the Reds 29% — yet each pitcher has allowed a run in two of his last five, keeping this a genuine coin flip at 47%.
- Coin flip — Dustin May's 61% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 32% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -121.5 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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