NRFI Results
First-inning leans for July 24, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
128-100
228 graded
56%
hit rate
NRFI
52-4355%
YRFI
76-5757%
0-0 on 6 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
3
NRFI lean
Model 55%Book -132 · 54%
Joey CantilloLHP
80% NRFI · 20 GS · 5/5 L5
CLE 1st: 24% (#27) · 21% vs hand
Shane McClanahanLHP
83% NRFI · 18 GS · 4/5 L5
TB 1st: 35% (#5) · 32% vs hand
Tropicana Field · park run factor 95
- NRFI lean — Joey Cantillo (80% NRFI) and Shane McClanahan (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (54% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 35% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
NRFI lean
Model 54%Book -136 · 55%
Bryce MillerRHP
89% NRFI · 9 GS · 4/5 L5
SEA 1st: 28% (#20) · 32% vs hand
MacKenzie GoreLHP
70% NRFI · 20 GS · 4/5 L5
TEX 1st: 30% (#18) · 27% vs hand
Globe Life Field · park run factor 94
- NRFI lean — Bryce Miller (89% NRFI) and MacKenzie Gore (70%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (55% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
NRFI lean
Model 55%Book -121 · 52%
Grayson RodriguezRHP
75% NRFI · 8 GS · 3/5 L5
LAA 1st: 34% (#8) · 32% vs hand
Logan WebbRHP
81% NRFI · 16 GS · 3/5 L5
SF 1st: 22% (#30) · 19% vs hand
Oracle Park · park run factor 94
- NRFI lean — Grayson Rodriguez (75% NRFI) and Logan Webb (81%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -121 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 19% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
3
YRFI lean
Model 47% (low)Book -137 · 54%
Beck WayRHP
No season starts
KC 1st: 32% (#11) · 36% vs hand
Tarik SkubalLHP
62% NRFI · 13 GS · 3/5 L5
DET 1st: 33% (#9) · 36% vs hand
Comerica Park · park run factor 100
- YRFI lean — the Detroit Tigers push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (9th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
YRFI lean
Model 44%Book +1 · 64%
Eduardo RodriguezLHP
58% NRFI · 19 GS · 4/5 L5
ARI 1st: 31% (#16) · 26% vs hand
Carson PalmquistLHP
50% NRFI · 4 GS · 2/4 L5
WSH 1st: 36% (#2) · 35% vs hand
Nationals Park · park run factor 102
- YRFI lean — the Washington Nationals push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at +1 (64% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
YRFI lean
Model 46%Book +101 · 47%
Jacob LopezLHP
91% NRFI · 11 GS · 5/5 L5
OAK 1st: 29% (#19) · 27% vs hand
Zebby MatthewsRHP
50% NRFI · 12 GS · 3/5 L5
MIN 1st: 37% (#1) · 39% vs hand
Target Field · park run factor 104
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at +101 (47% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
9
Coin flip
Model 51%Book -114 · 50%
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP
56% NRFI · 16 GS · 2/5 L5
COL 1st: 34% (#7) · 36% vs hand
Shane DrohanLHP
90% NRFI · 10 GS · 5/5 L5
MIL 1st: 28% (#22) · 25% vs hand
American Family Field · park run factor 94
- Coin flip — Shane Drohan's 90% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 34% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
Coin flip
Model 52%Book -122 · 52%
Matthew BoydLHP
78% NRFI · 9 GS · 4/5 L5
CHC 1st: 24% (#24) · 25% vs hand
Jared JonesRHP
78% NRFI · 9 GS · 4/5 L5
PIT 1st: 34% (#6) · 23% vs hand
PNC Park · park run factor 98
- Coin flip — Matthew Boyd's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 34% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Coin flip
Model 52%Book -136 · 54%
Cam SchlittlerRHP
85% NRFI · 20 GS · 3/5 L5
NYY 1st: 35% (#4) · 45% vs hand
Jesus LuzardoLHP
95% NRFI · 19 GS · 5/5 L5
PHI 1st: 32% (#10) · 30% vs hand
Citizens Bank Park · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 95% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 35% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 45% against left-handers.
Coin flip
Book -102 · 48%
Grant HolmesRHP
81% NRFI · 16 GS · 5/5 L5
ATL 1st: 32% (#13)
Starter TBD
Awaiting probable starter
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Grant Holmes' 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -102 (48% implied).
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB.
Coin flip
Model 51%Book -102 · 47%
Roki SasakiRHP
82% NRFI · 17 GS · 4/5 L5
LAD 1st: 32% (#12) · 31% vs hand
Sean ManaeaLHP
43% NRFI · 7 GS · 2/5 L5
NYM 1st: 26% (#23) · 24% vs hand
Citi Field · park run factor 96
- Coin flip — Roki Sasaki's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -102 (47% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
Coin flip
Book -105 · 48%
German MarquezRHP
44% NRFI · 9 GS · 2/5 L5
SD 1st: 23% (#29)
Starter TBD
Awaiting probable starter
loanDepot park · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — German Marquez's 44% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 31% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied).
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB.
Coin flip
Model 52% (low)Book -118.5 · 51%
Trey YesavageRHP
67% NRFI · 15 GS · 3/5 L5
TOR 1st: 24% (#26) · 17% vs hand
Patrick SandovalLHP
100% NRFI · 2 GS · 2/2 L5
BOS 1st: 23% (#28) · 22% vs hand
Fenway Park · park run factor 108
- Coin flip — Trey Yesavage's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Toronto Blue Jays' 24% first-inning bats (26th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -118.5 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
Coin flip
Model 52%Book -107 · 49%
Spencer ArrighettiRHP
81% NRFI · 16 GS · 4/5 L5
HOU 1st: 36% (#3) · 41% vs hand
Davis MartinRHP
89% NRFI · 18 GS · 5/5 L5
CHW 1st: 30% (#17) · 25% vs hand
Rate Field · park run factor 98
- Coin flip — Davis Martin's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 36% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -107 (49% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.
Coin flip
Model 47%Book -121.5 · 52%
Rhett LowderRHP
54% NRFI · 13 GS · 3/5 L5
CIN 1st: 28% (#21) · 29% vs hand
Dustin MayRHP
61% NRFI · 18 GS · 3/5 L5
STL 1st: 32% (#14) · 27% vs hand
Busch Stadium · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Dustin May's 61% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 32% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -121.5 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.