NRFI Results

Jake Bennett is the anchor here, sitting on a perfect 100% first-inning NRFI mark across nine starts and 5-for-5 lately. The Orioles have plundered the opening frame in just 24% of their games and only 11% against lefties, which does Bennett plenty of favors. Kremer's shaky 40% NRFI clouds the other side, but at 53% the model still edges the book's 47%.

• NRFI lean — Jake Bennett has worked a scoreless first in 100% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 11% against left-handers.

Logan Henderson has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his seven starts, and he's staring down a Mets lineup that plots up in the opening frame just 24% of the time against righties. Christian Scott brings his own 69% NRFI rate to the mound at pitcher-friendly American Family Field. Neither offense generates much early, nudging this toward NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Christian Scott (69% NRFI) and Logan Henderson (86%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -132 (54% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Emerson Hancock's 81% NRFI mark carries this matchup, and T-Mobile Park's suppressed 83 run factor only reinforces the scoreless lean. Brady Singer is the wobbly link at just 47% NRFI on the year, but both offenses rank near the bottom in first-inning scoring, with Cincinnati plating a run early in only 28% of games. The math tilts NRFI, though the market's 95% looks steep.

• NRFI lean — Emerson Hancock has worked a scoreless first in 81% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (95% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Bennett has kept the first frame clean in all nine of his starts, and Bradish isn't far behind at 89% across 18 outings — both riding perfect 5-for-5 streaks lately. The bats give little reason to expect fireworks either, with Baltimore plating a first-inning run just 11% of the time against lefties. Fenway's hitter-friendly 108 park factor is the lone nudge the other way, but this leans NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Kyle Bradish (89% NRFI) and Jake Bennett (100%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 11% against left-handers.

Michael King has been elite in opening frames, holding runners off the board in 89% of his 18 starts this year. Atlanta's bats only push across a first-inning run 35% of the time against righties, which fits King's profile nicely. Martin Perez adds a solid 71% NRFI mark, and San Diego's quiet 20% first-inning rate versus lefties keeps this leaning scoreless.

• NRFI lean — Michael King (89% NRFI) and Martin Perez (71%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 20% against left-handers.

Keider Montero's spotless first-inning record — scoreless in all 15 starts, including his last five — anchors this lean toward NRFI. Colin Rea backs him up with a 75% clip and five straight clean frames of his own, and Wrigley's below-average park factor (94) doesn't help the bats. Detroit's offense does the most damage here at 34% first-inning scoring, keeping this closer than a runaway.

• NRFI lean — Keider Montero (100% NRFI) and Colin Rea (75%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.

Two capable arms in Mitch Keller (72% NRFI) and Gerrit Cole (70%) usually point toward a quiet first, but both have wobbled recently, each posting scoreless first innings in just three of their last five. The bigger pull is Pittsburgh's bats, who plate a first-inning run 38% of the time against right-handers, nudging this one toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +106 (45% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.

Coors Field's 128 run factor sets the tone, and Gabriel Hughes hasn't helped his own cause with a first-inning run in both of his two starts. Cade Cavalli's 70% NRFI rate is the sturdiest number here, but he's facing a Nationals-friendly setup where Washington's offense ranks 2nd in MLB at scoring early, plating a first-inning run 37% of the time. Just note Hughes' tiny two-start sample.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Washington Nationals score early in 37% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +125 (42% implied); the model has it 37%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.

Two elite-first-inning arms take the mound here, with both Bubba Chandler and Max Fried carrying 78% NRFI rates and each posting five straight clean opening frames. What tilts this toward YRFI is the lineups: the Yankees score in the first 36% of the time (fourth-most in MLB) and the Pirates aren't far behind at 35%. The model's 47% scoreless read reflects that offensive punch.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

Landen Roupp brings a strong 79% first-inning scoreless rate into Kauffman, and he's the clear anchor here — but Seth Lugo counters at just 47% NRFI with a rough 2-of-5 recent stretch. The offenses pull in different directions: San Francisco scores in the 1st only 23% of the time, while Kansas City does so at 33%. That split lands this one squarely on the fence.

• Coin flip — Landen Roupp's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -124 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.

Gage Jump has carried an elite 80% first-inning shutout rate across 10 starts for Oakland, but Chase Field's run-friendly 106 park factor and Merrill Kelly's more middling 59% NRFI mark keep this one balanced. With Arizona plating a first-inning run in just 27% of games against left-handers, the model and book agree at 47%, landing this squarely as a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Gage Jump's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 32% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Reid Detmers gives the Angels a first-inning edge, sitting at 74% NRFI across 19 starts, while Hunter Dobbins counters with a 67% clip in a small three-start sample. Both offenses are fairly quiet early — the Cardinals plate a run in the first just 31% of the time — but Angel Stadium plays slightly above average for runs (102), keeping this one squarely in coin-flip territory.

• Coin flip — Reid Detmers' 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110.5 (50% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.

Aaron Nola's 79% first-inning shutout rate over 19 starts is the standout number here, but it's dragging against Eric Lauer's shakier 55% mark and a Phillies lineup that scores in the first 32% of the time. With both offenses striking in the opening frame about a third of their games, the model's 47% scoreless read lands squarely in coin-flip territory.

• Coin flip — Aaron Nola's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Bailey Ober brings a sturdy 77% NRFI mark into Progressive Field, and Cleveland's bats have started slow, plating a first-inning run just 23% of the time. The tension is on the other side: Minnesota tops the majors by scoring first 37% of games, testing Slade Cecconi's 72% NRFI clip. Those pulls roughly cancel, leaving a true 52% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Bailey Ober's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 37% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -124 (52% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Braydon Fisher hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his six starts, and Griffin Jax matches him at 80% NRFI with four clean first frames in his last five. The tension comes from Tampa Bay's bats, who plate a run in the opening frame 35% of the time — fifth-most in MLB — while Toronto's offense sits near the bottom. That split leaves it right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Braydon Fisher's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 35% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -129 (53% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 35% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Tyler Alexander has kept the board clean in the first through all three of his starts, and Anthony Kay counters with a solid 65% NRFI mark and four scoreless first innings over his last five. Both lineups sit near the middle of the pack, plating a first-inning run just 30% of the time. Globe Life's 94 park factor tilts things slightly toward the pitchers, but this stays a near coin flip at 51% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Tyler Alexander's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 30% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.

Two elite first-inning arms make this a genuine standoff: Sandy Alcantara carries an 80% NRFI mark and has thrown five straight clean firsts, while Peter Lambert answers with an 81% rate and his own 5-for-5 streak. Houston's bat is a real threat, scoring in the opening frame 41% of the time versus righties, which keeps the model at a near-even 49%.

• Coin flip — Peter Lambert's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 36% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -121 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.