NRFI Results

Joey Cantillo has kept the first frame clean in all five of his last starts and posts a 79% NRFI rate on the year, while Paul Skenes counters with a strong 74% mark of his own. Cleveland's bats are among the quietest early, plating a run in just 23% of first innings. The pitching-heavy signals at a slightly suppressed Progressive Field back a modest NRFI lean here.

• NRFI lean — Paul Skenes (74% NRFI) and Joey Cantillo (79%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -167 (58% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 36% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.

Robbie Ray has kept the first inning clean in 76% of his 17 starts, and he's blanked four of his last five opening frames. He gets help from a Giants offense that scores first-inning runs just 22% of the time — dead last in MLB — while T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor suppresses scoring further. Logan Gilbert's 61% NRFI rate rounds out a strong lean toward zeros.

• NRFI lean — Robbie Ray (76% NRFI) and Logan Gilbert (61%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 58%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.

Coors Field's 128 park factor does a lot of heavy lifting here, and it's easy to see why the model leans YRFI. Hunter Greene has posted a scoreless first in just half of his two starts — an admittedly thin sample — while Feltner's steadier 69% NRFI is the main thing pushing back. With the Rockies' first-inning bats and that altitude, first blood feels live.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 34% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +114 (44% implied); the model has it 41%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here, because both starters have sparkling first-inning numbers — Jacob Lopez sits at 90% NRFI over 10 starts and Foster Griffin at 83%, each perfect over their last five. But Washington's bats rank 4th in MLB for first-inning scoring, and the hitter-friendly park nudges this slightly toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Washington Nationals score early in 36% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +112 (44% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.

Chase Field's hitter-friendly tilt (106 run factor) is doing some of the work here, but the bigger flag is St. Louis' lineup, which has plated a first-inning run in 38% of games against lefties like Eduardo Rodriguez. Neither Andre Pallante nor Rodriguez has an especially sturdy NRFI rate, and the model's 43% scoreless read leans toward early offense.

• YRFI lean — Chase Field (NH) (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the St. Louis Cardinals score early in 32% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -109.5 (49% implied); the model has it 43%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.

Cam Schlittler brings a sturdy 84% NRFI over 19 starts to the mound, and against him the Dodgers plate a first-inning run just 33% of the time. The uncertainty sits on the other side: Will Klein has only two career starts, splitting them 50/50, and the Yankees have scored early in 35% of their games. That thin sample keeps this a genuine coin flip.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (6th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Sean Burke has kept the first inning clean in 71% of his 14 starts, and Toronto's offense ranks 25th in the league at scoring early, plating a run in just 23% of games. Trey Yesavage's 64% NRFI rate keeps the White Sox side quiet too. The model splits it at 51% scoreless — a genuine coin flip despite the book's lopsided 91% NRFI number.

• Coin flip — Sean Burke's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122.5 (91% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Cam Schlittler brings the sharper first-inning résumé here, sitting his opponents down scoreless in 84% of his 19 starts, while Yamamoto counters with a 69% NRFI mark and five straight clean firsts. Both offenses hover in the mid-30s for first-inning scoring, and the Yankees dip to 26% against righties. The model's 48% scoreless read makes this a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Cam Schlittler's 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 35% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Nolan McLean has kept the first frame clean in 72% of his 18 starts, and he'll face a Mets... wait, a Phillies lineup that scores early just 32% of the time. Alan Rangel's spotless 100% NRFI mark comes from only two starts, so that number carries little weight. With the Mets scoring early in only 26% of their games, this leans slightly toward NRFI, but the thin data keeps it a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Nolan McLean's 72% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -106 (48% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Shane McClanahan's 82% first-inning shutout rate is the anchor here, and Boston backs that up by plating a run in just 23% of openers, 24th in the majors. The wrinkle is Tampa Bay's offense, which scores first 35% of the time and 37% against righties like Sonny Gray. Add Fenway's 108 park factor and this one grades out as a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Shane McClanahan's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 35% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 35% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.

Grant Holmes brings the sharpest first-inning numbers here, sitting at 80% NRFI across 15 starts, while Eovaldi backs him at 71% and a clean 5-for-5 over his last five. The catch is Truist Park's slightly run-friendly tilt (102) and Atlanta's lineup scoring early in a third of its games, which is enough to keep this a genuine coin flip at 50%.

• Coin flip — Grant Holmes' 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Matching 67% first-inning zeroes, Brandon Young and Hunter Brown are dead even on paper, which is why this lands as a coin flip. The tension sits in the lineups: Houston plates a first-inning run in 36% of games (41% against righties like Young), but Baltimore's bats rank 27th at just 23%. Model sees 49% scoreless, a shade under the book's 52%.

• Coin flip — Brandon Young's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 36% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Eury Perez brings a 60% NRFI mark into Milwaukee and has posted four clean first frames over his last five starts, which slightly tips this toward a quiet opening. Working against that lean is Robert Gasser at a middling 56%, plus American Family Field's below-average 94 run factor keeping things contained. The Brewers score first just 28% of the time, but Miami's bats nudge this back toward a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Eury Perez's 60% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 33% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Noah Cameron has been a first-inning wall for Kansas City, posting a stellar 78% NRFI across 18 starts, and San Diego's bats rank 28th in MLB at scoring early. The pull toward YRFI comes from German Marquez, who's cleared the first frame just 50% of the time and gets a Royals lineup that's the 10th-most likely in baseball to strike early. Those competing forces land this squarely at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Noah Cameron's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.

Shota Imanaga is the anchor here, protecting the first inning in 78% of his 18 starts and cooling four of his last five. But the Twins carry the majors' hottest opening frame, plating a run in 37% of games and 38% against lefties, which explains why this Wrigley meeting sits near a coin flip. Zebby Matthews' modest 55% NRFI keeps things balanced.

• Coin flip — Shota Imanaga's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 37% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -134 (54% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.

Casey Mize brings a spotless first-inning ledger into Anaheim — 14-for-14 on NRFI, including all five of his last five — and that alone tilts things toward a scoreless frame. But Ryan Johnson's 80% mark isn't quite as airtight, and both offenses plate a first-inning run about a third of the time, keeping this closer to a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Casey Mize's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -2.5 (4% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.