NRFI Results

Shane Drohan has been nearly untouchable in the opening frame, posting an 89% NRFI mark across nine starts and going scoreless in the first in each of his last five. Max Meyer matches the theme at 78% over 18 starts, and a Milwaukee lineup that plates a first-inning run just 26% of the time against righties gives him a favorable draw. The pitching-friendly park nudges this toward a quiet first.

• NRFI lean — Max Meyer (78% NRFI) and Shane Drohan (89%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Bryan Woo has been immaculate in the opening frame, posting an 88% NRFI mark across 17 starts and holding it clean in all five of his last outings. Logan Webb matches him well at 80%, and neither offense does much early — the Giants score in the first just 23% of the time, second-fewest in the league. T-Mobile's run-suppressing park (83 factor) only reinforces the NRFI lean.

• NRFI lean — Logan Webb (80% NRFI) and Bryan Woo (88%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -148 (56% implied); the model has it 61%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.

Coors Field and its 128 run factor loom over everything here, and the model still leans YRFI despite Rhett Lowder's respectable 58% first-inning shutout rate. Tomoyuki Sugano offers less resistance, having posted a scoreless first in just 2 of his last 5 starts, and Colorado plates a run in the opening frame 34% of the time — ninth-most in the majors. Thin air tips the scales.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 34% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +145 (38% implied); the model has it 39%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Chase Field's 106 run factor sets the table for offense, and Dustin May's shaky 59% NRFI mark — with runs in three of his last five first innings — is the reason this leans YRFI. Brandon Pfaadt's 83% clean rate over six starts cuts the other way, but with the model pricing scoreless at just 45%, the edge tips toward an early run.

• YRFI lean — Chase Field (NH) (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the St. Louis Cardinals score early in 33% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -116 (51% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Two of the most dangerous first-inning offenses in baseball share the field at Yankee Stadium, with the Dodgers and Yankees ranking 8th and 6th in first-inning scoring. That firepower is why the model sits at just 44% for a scoreless frame despite decent NRFI marks from both starters — Emmet Sheehan at 63% and Ryan Weathers at 61%. Nudge toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (6th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -107 (48% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor is the loudest signal here, and Washington's bats back it up — they put up first-inning runs in 36% of games, fourth-most in MLB, and 39% against right-handers like J.T. Ginn. Ginn's strong 78% NRFI rate is a counterweight, but the model still sees a slight lean toward an early run.

• YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Washington Nationals score early in 36% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +128 (41% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.

Grayson Rodriguez has been elite in the first frame, posting an 86% NRFI mark across seven starts, but Skubal is the wobbly side of this equation at just 58% and only two clean first innings in his last five. The Angels also plate a first-inning run 34% of the time, seventh-most in MLB, which is why the model tilts toward YRFI at 46% scoreless.

• YRFI lean — the Los Angeles Angels push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (7th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

Jared Jones brings a sturdy 75% first-inning NRFI mark into Cleveland, and Gavin Williams counters at 72% over 18 starts — both have kept the board clean in four of their last five. The Guardians rarely dent the scoreboard early, plating a first-inning run just 24% of the time, but Pittsburgh's bats push back as the third-most active early-scoring offense at 37%. That tension keeps this one squarely a coin flip at 52%.

• Coin flip — Jared Jones' 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 37% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.

Matthew Boyd's 75% first-inning shutout rate over eight starts is the strongest edge here, and the Cubs' bats have been quiet early, plating a run in just 22% of first innings. But Minnesota tilts things back, leading the majors by scoring in the first 37% of the time and 40% against lefties like Boyd. With the model and book both at 51%, it's a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Matthew Boyd's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 37% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 40% against left-handers.

Jesus Luzardo has been outstanding out of the gate, posting a 94% first-inning shutout rate across 18 starts and going 5-for-5 in his last five. The complication is Sean Manaea, whose 50% NRFI mark and 2-of-5 recent stretch give the Phillies' bat a real opening in a hitter-leaning Citizens Bank Park. That tug-of-war keeps this one close to even at 52% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 94% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Davis Martin has been a first-inning wall for the White Sox, posting an 88% NRFI rate across 17 starts with clean opening frames in each of his last five. The tension comes from Shane Bieber, who's stumbled to a 25% NRFI in just four starts. With Toronto's bats quiet early (24% of games), Martin's form nudges this toward scoreless, but Bieber's shakiness keeps it a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Davis Martin's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 32% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -5 (8% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Ian Seymour brings an 83% NRFI mark over six starts, but the caveat is Patrick Sandoval's spotless 100% built on just one outing — thin data that keeps this from a firm read. Fenway's 108 park factor and Tampa Bay's active first-inning bats (36%, 5th-most in MLB) add run-scoring risk, which is why the model's 48% sits well under the book's implied 63%.

• Coin flip — Ian Seymour's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 36% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +2.5 (63% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.

MacKenzie Gore brings a strong 68% NRFI mark and four scoreless first frames in his last five starts, and Atlanta only puts up runs in the opening inning 26% of the time against lefties. The problem is Owen Murphy has no season starts to lean on, so the Braves' side is a total unknown. That thin sample keeps this a genuine coin flip at 49%.

• Coin flip — MacKenzie Gore's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -106 (49% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Two strong first-inning arms headline this one: Trevor Rogers carries an 81% NRFI mark across 16 starts and has held the fort in all five of his last outings, while Spencer Arrighetti sits at 80%. The wrinkle is Houston's bats, which score first 37% of the time — but they dip to just 20% against lefties like Rogers, leaving this a genuine tossup at 52%.

• Coin flip — Trevor Rogers' 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 37% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 20% against left-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Griffin Canning brings a solid 60% first-inning shutout rate to Kauffman, and he's kept the frame clean in four of his last five. But Randy Dobnak has no starts yet this season, which leaves half this equation a mystery. San Diego's bats rank 28th at scoring early, so the real question is how Dobnak handles a Royals lineup that plates a run in just 29% of first innings against righties — a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Griffin Canning's 60% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 32% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +118 (43% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Braxton Ashcraft brings a strong 78% NRFI mark across 18 starts, and Cleveland's bats have been quiet early, plating a first-inning run just 24% of the time. The problem is the other dugout: Logan Allen has no season starts to judge, and Pittsburgh's lineup ranks third in MLB for first-inning scoring. That unknown, in a pitcher-friendly park (94 run factor), leaves this one right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Braxton Ashcraft's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 37% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -132 (53% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.