NRFI Results

Bailey Ober has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 12 starts this year, a big reason the model likes this to stay scoreless. The Cubs' offense backs that up, plating a first-inning run just 21% of the time — 30th in MLB. Colin Rea's 73% NRFI rate adds another layer, though Minnesota's league-best 38% first-inning scoring rate is the one wrinkle keeping this from a slam-dunk.

• NRFI lean — Bailey Ober (83% NRFI) and Colin Rea (73%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at +112 (44% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 21% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 38% of games, the most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.

Bryce Miller has kept the first frame clean in 88% of his eight starts, and he's staring down a Giants lineup that scores in the opening inning just 23% of the time — 29th in MLB, and even skinnier at 21% against righties. Add Roupp's 78% NRFI mark and pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park (83 run factor), and the scoreless lean makes sense.

• NRFI lean — Landen Roupp (78% NRFI) and Bryce Miller (88%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 59%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.

Coors Field does its usual damage to NRFI hopes, with the park's 128 run factor working against both starters here. Brady Singer brings a shaky 44% NRFI mark for the Reds, and Colorado's bats plate a first-inning run 34% of the time, eighth-most in the majors. Gabriel Hughes has just one start to lean on, so confidence stays modest despite the YRFI tilt.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 34% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +136 (40% implied); the model has it 38%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Both starters have logged shaky recent form, with Troy Melton and Reid Detmers each allowing a first-inning run in three of their last five outings despite solid season-long NRFI rates. The Angels' bats push the lean toward YRFI here — they plate a first-inning run 34% of the time, ninth-most in MLB, and Angel Stadium's slightly elevated 102 run factor nudges it further.

• YRFI lean — the Los Angeles Angels push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (9th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

• YRFI lean — Chase Field (NH) (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Arizona Diamondbacks score early in 32% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Sutter Health Park plays as a launching pad with that 117 run factor, and Washington's bats have been an early threat all year — scoring in the first 37% of the time, third-most in MLB and 36% against lefties like Gage Jump. Jump's 78% NRFI is strong, but the park and the Nationals' aggressive first-inning profile tilt this toward a run crossing.

• YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Washington Nationals score early in 37% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +103 (46% implied); the model has it 43%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.

Bennett has yet to surrender a first-inning run through eight starts, and Jax counters with a 79% NRFI mark, so both arms tilt this scoreless. The tension comes from Tampa Bay's bats, who score early in 36% of games — fifth-most in MLB — plus Fenway's run-friendly 108 park factor. That's enough to keep it a genuine coin flip at 51%.

• Coin flip — Jake Bennett's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 36% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.

Roki Sasaki's 81% first-inning shutout rate over 16 starts is the loudest signal here, and against right-handers the Yankees plate a first-inning run just 27% of the time. But Gerrit Cole has been shakier at 67% NRFI, and the Dodgers' offense scores early 33% against righties, so the two lineups roughly cancel out. At 47% versus a 45% market, it's a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Roki Sasaki's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 35% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +107 (45% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Jared Jones brings a 75% NRFI mark across eight starts, and Gavin Williams counters at 72% over 18 — two arms who tend to keep the board clean early. The tension comes from Pittsburgh's bats, who plate a first-inning run 37% of the time, second-most in MLB, while Cleveland's offense sits near the bottom at 24%. Progressive Field's 94 run factor nudges things toward NRFI, but at 52% it's essentially a toss-up.

• Coin flip — Jared Jones' 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 37% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -143 (55% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.

• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied).
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB.
• Fenway Park boosts scoring (run factor 108).

Spencer Miles has kept the first inning clean in all three of his starts this year, though it's a small sample the Blue Jays are leaning on. On the other side, Anthony Kay carries a solid 63% NRFI rate, and Toronto's bats score in the first just 24% of the time — 18% against lefties like Kay. The model's razor-thin 51% edge reflects two arms trending scoreless against quiet early offenses.

• Coin flip — Spencer Miles' 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 32% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 18% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Chris Sale is the anchor here, sitting scoreless in 88% of his 16 first innings and a perfect 5-for-5 across his last five. The trouble is the other side: Cal Quantrill's 75% NRFI rate is solid but shakier, and Atlanta's bats plate a first-inning run 34% of the time against righties. That tension leaves the model at 51% — essentially a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Chris Sale's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.

Sandy Alcantara brings a 79% NRFI mark into Milwaukee, and Logan Henderson has been even stingier at 83% over his six starts. American Family Field's 94 run factor plays in the pitchers' favor too, though the Marlins' bats plate a first-inning run 33% of the time. The signals tilt scoreless, but a 53% model read keeps this close to a toss-up.

• Coin flip — Logan Henderson's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -127.5 (100% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Peter Lambert has been a first-inning wall for Houston, posting an 80% NRFI mark across 15 starts and going a perfect 5-for-5 lately — which is exactly why this lands as a toss-up rather than a lean. Dean Kremer offsets that at just 50% NRFI, and Houston's bats scoring first in 40% of games against righties keeps the door open, splitting the model right down the middle at 50%.

• Coin flip — Peter Lambert's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 36% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Michael King is the clear stopper here, sitting scoreless in 88% of his 17 starts and holding the line in four of his last five. The tension comes from Seth Lugo, whose 44% NRFI mark and just one clean opening frame in his last five starts drags this toward even. With a slightly hitter-friendly Kauffman, the model's 50% split feels honest.

• Coin flip — Michael King's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.