NRFI Results

Payton Tolle brings the muscle here, with a stellar 79% first-inning scoreless rate across 14 starts and four clean openers in his last five. The Mets counter with Zach Thornton, whose 0-for-2 NRFI mark is too thin to trust either way. With Boston's bats scoring in the first just 23% of the time, the lean tilts NRFI — though that shaky starter sample keeps confidence low.

• NRFI lean — Payton Tolle has worked a scoreless first in 79% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -127 (52% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.

Petco's pitcher-friendly 94 run factor sets the tone here, and neither offense does much damage early — the Padres plate a first-inning run just 24% of the time, the Blue Jays 23%. Kevin Gausman's 61% NRFI rate over 18 starts gives Toronto the steadier arm, while German Marquez sits at 57% for San Diego. Enough to nudge this toward NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Kevin Gausman has worked a scoreless first in 61% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -116 (51% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Robert Gasser's shaky first-inning history — a 50% NRFI rate and just 2 clean firsts over his last 5 — is the crack the Pirates could exploit, even though Pittsburgh scores in the opening frame only 27% of the time against lefties. Paul Skenes counters with an elite 72% NRFI mark, but the model still sees 53% first-inning scoring, nudging this toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Pittsburgh Pirates push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Seth Lugo's shaky first-inning form is the story here — just a 41% NRFI rate across 17 starts, and only one clean opener in his last five. That plays into Kansas City's advantage on offense, as the Royals score in the first 33% of the time, 11th-most in MLB. With Shane Baz sitting at 53% NRFI, this one tilts YRFI at a 45% scoreless projection.

• YRFI lean — the Kansas City Royals push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (11th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Both of these lineups rank among the top six in MLB for first-inning offense, each plating a run in 36% of games, and that firepower is what tips this toward YRFI. Cade Cavalli's 67% NRFI rate is the softer of the two arms, though Will Warren's 76% mark offers some counterweight. Add Nationals Park's slightly hitter-friendly 102 run factor and the model lands at just 45% scoreless.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (5th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

The Twins' league-best 38% first-inning scoring rate is the number to watch here, and it's the main reason this game tilts YRFI. Taj Bradley isn't much of a firewall either at just 56% NRFI, while Minnesota's bats have punched across runs early more than any other lineup in baseball. Target Field's 104 park factor only adds to the run-friendly setup.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 38% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 42%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 38% of games, the most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Dustin May is the crack in this NRFI wall, posting just a 56% clean first-inning rate over 16 starts while the Braves plate a run in the opening frame 35% of the time against righties. JR Ritchie's 71% NRFI mark on the other side keeps it from tilting harder, but the model's 47% scoreless read gives it a modest YRFI edge over the book's 37%.

• YRFI lean — the Atlanta Braves push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (14th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -130.5 (37% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 33% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Mitch Bratt's spotless first-inning record comes with a huge asterisk — it's built on a single career start, so there's little to lean on there for Arizona. Emmet Sheehan has posted a scoreless first in 60% of his 15 outings, but he's slipped lately with a run in the frame in four of his last five. With both offenses scoring early in a third of their games, the model narrowly favors YRFI at 46% scoreless.

• YRFI lean — the Los Angeles Dodgers push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (9th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +112 (45% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 33% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Boyd has kept the first frame clean in 71% of his seven starts, and the Reds' bats have only pushed a run across in the opening inning 20% of the time against lefties — solid NRFI signals. But Abbott sits at a middling 50% NRFI over 18 starts, and Great American's 106 park factor adds run potential, which is why this stays right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Matthew Boyd's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 27% first-inning bats (22nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -2.5 (4% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 20% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 20% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 13% against left-handers.

Two arms with elite first-inning résumés headline this one: Tyler Phillips has a scoreless first in 88% of his eight starts, while Joey Cantillo sits at 78% across 18. Cleveland's bats rank 29th at scoring in the opening frame, but Miami's lineup can push runs early, and loanDepot's slightly hitter-friendly 102 factor keeps it close to a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Tyler Phillips' 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -129 (53% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Zack Wheeler is the reason to like NRFI here, sitting at 86% over 14 starts with five straight clean first innings. The other side muddies it: Tarik Skubal holds just a 55% NRFI mark and has been touched in three of his last five openers. That gap is why the model lands at 48%, well under the book's 59% implied NRFI.

• Coin flip — Zack Wheeler's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 33% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -165 (59% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

Both starters carry matching 80% first-inning zeros, with Emerson Hancock and Ian Seymour each throwing scoreless openers in four of their last five. The tension comes from Tampa Bay's bats, which score in the first 36% of the time — fourth-most in MLB — while Seattle's lineup lands middle-of-the-pack. That offensive edge is enough to keep this one right at a 50/50 split.

• Coin flip — Emerson Hancock's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 36% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.

J.T. Ginn brings the sharpest edge here, sitting at an 82% first-inning NRFI rate across 17 starts, and the White Sox plate a first-inning run just 26% of the time against righties. Noah Schultz counters with a solid 70% NRFI mark, but the A's 31% scoring rate versus lefties keeps this genuinely even — the model's 52% barely nudges past the book's 51%.

• Coin flip — J.T. Ginn's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -117.5 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.

MacKenzie Gore's 67% first-inning shutdown rate over 18 starts is the sturdiest number on the board, and it's tested by Houston's lineup, which plates a run in the opening frame 37% of the time (third-most in MLB). But the Astros manage just 21% against lefties, and Cristian Javier's tiny two-start sample makes this a genuine toss-up at Globe Life Field.

• Coin flip — MacKenzie Gore's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 37% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -106 (48% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.

Trevor McDonald's 67% first-inning shutout rate makes San Francisco the steadier side here, and the Giants offense that plates a first-inning run in just 23% of games doesn't do much to threaten Lorenzen. The tension comes from Colorado's bats, which score early in 33% of games — 10th-most in MLB — keeping this one a genuine coin flip despite the pitching edge.

• Coin flip — Trevor McDonald's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -104.5 (48% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.