NRFI Results

Freddy Peralta anchors this one with a 78% NRFI mark across 18 starts, and neither offense poses much early threat — the Red Sox plate a first-inning run just 19% of the time against right-handers. The catch is Eduardo Rivera, who has no season starts to lean on, so the model keeps its confidence low at 55% despite the tidy signals.

• NRFI lean — Freddy Peralta has worked a scoreless first in 78% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -126.5 (95% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 19% against right-handers.

Kyle Bradish has kept the first frame clean in 88% of his 17 starts, and Baltimore's bats offer little pushback when they cross paths with Noah Cameron — the Orioles have scored in the opening inning just 7% of the time against lefties. Cameron's own 76% NRFI rate strengthens the case, nudging the model to 54% and a slight edge over the book's even read.

• NRFI lean — Noah Cameron (76% NRFI) and Kyle Bradish (88%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 7% against left-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Both starters are locking down early frames, with Javier Assad posting an 86% NRFI clip across seven outings and Nick Lodolo close behind at 82% over eleven. The Cubs' bats offer little pushback, scoring in the first just 20% of the time and only 14% against lefties like Lodolo. That combination pushes the model to 54% scoreless, an 11-point edge on the book despite the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

• NRFI lean — Javier Assad (86% NRFI) and Nick Lodolo (82%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at +116 (44% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 20% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 14% against left-handers.

Walker Buehler's 78% first-inning shutout rate over 18 starts anchors this NRFI lean, and he's opposite Trey Yesavage's solid 69% mark. Both offenses have been quiet early, with San Diego and Toronto each plating a first-inning run just 23% of the time. Petco's pitcher-friendly 94 run factor only tilts things further, nudging the model to 57% scoreless.

• NRFI lean — Trey Yesavage (69% NRFI) and Walker Buehler (78%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Target Field plays slightly above average for offense at a 104 run factor, and the Twins own baseball's highest first-inning scoring rate at 38%. That bat pushes this toward YRFI despite strong pitching, as both Ryan Johnson (75% NRFI) and Joe Ryan (72%) tend to keep the board clean early. The model's 44% scoreless estimate sits below the market's implied 51%.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 38% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -117.5 (51% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 38% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

Kumar Rocker is the reason this one tilts YRFI — he's held a scoreless first in just 40% of his 15 starts, and Houston's lineup ranks 5th in MLB for first-inning scoring while plating a run in 38% of games against right-handers. Peter Lambert's steady 79% NRFI keeps Texas quieter, but Rocker's shaky opening frames headline the case here.

• YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (5th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -123 (92% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.

Reynaldo Lopez is the reason this leans YRFI — he's held a scoreless first in just 29% of his seven starts and has allowed a run in four of his last five. That's a shaky number against a Cardinals lineup that plates a first-inning run 30% of the time. Liberatore's sturdier 59% NRFI mark keeps it from tilting further, but the model's 45% still sits under the book's implied 52%.

• YRFI lean — the Atlanta Braves push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (14th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -121.5 (52% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 33% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.

Two of baseball's more first-inning-prone offenses meet at Dodger StATIum, where the Dodgers plate a run in the opening frame 34% of the time — ninth-most in MLB — and Arizona isn't far behind at 33%. Yamamoto's 67% NRFI mark is solid but trails Pfaadt's 80%, and the model's 46% scoreless read nudges this one toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Los Angeles Dodgers push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (9th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -107 (49% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 33% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Braxton Ashcraft's 76% first-inning shutout rate over 17 starts is the sturdiest number here, and Milwaukee's bats only put up runs in the first 29% of the time. The tug-of-war comes from Pittsburgh's lineup, which scores in the opening frame 37% of games — second-most in MLB — against Brandon Sproat. At 49% scoreless in a slightly pitcher-friendly PNC Park, it's a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Braxton Ashcraft's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 37% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Both southpaws are stingy out of the gate: Gage Jump owns a 75% first-inning scoreless rate across eight starts, while Bryan Hudson checks in at 80% over five. Neither offense does much early either, with the White Sox scoring in the first just 31% of the time and Oakland at 29%. The signals cancel out, leaving this one right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Bryan Hudson's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

Drohan brings an 88% NRFI mark across eight starts, and Chandler counters at 76% over 17, with both riding 5-for-5 scoreless first innings over their last five outings. The pull toward YRFI is Pittsburgh's bat, which plates a first-inning run 37% of the time — second-most in MLB — though that dips to 29% against lefties like Drohan. Even split at 50%.

• Coin flip — Shane Drohan's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 37% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111.5 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Cam Schlittler brings an elite 89% first-inning zero rate into Nationals Park, and PJ Poulin isn't far behind at 80%, both riding four scoreless first frames in their last five starts. The catch is that the Yankees light up early — scoring in the first 36% of the time and a hefty 47% against lefties like Poulin. That tension keeps this one right at a coin flip, with the model at 48%.

• Coin flip — Cam Schlittler's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 36% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 47% against left-handers.

Oracle Park's pitcher-friendly 94 run factor sets the backdrop, and Kyle Freeland brings a solid 67% first-inning scoreless rate into this one. The tension comes from the two lineups pulling in opposite directions: San Francisco plates a first-inning run just 23% of the time, but Colorado's bats rank 10th in MLB at 34%. That split lands the model right at 50%, matching the book.

• Coin flip — Kyle Freeland's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 34% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110.5 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Tanner Bibee's 67% first-inning scoreless rate is the strongest arm in this one, and Cleveland's bats have been quiet early, plating a first-inning run just 23% of the time against righties. But Miami's lineup scores in the first 34% of games, eighth-most in MLB, which keeps Eury Perez from tilting this cleanly toward NRFI. The model's 48% split earns the coin-flip label.

• Coin flip — Tanner Bibee's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Griffin Jax has been stingy early all year, posting a 77% NRFI mark across 13 starts and four scoreless first innings in his last five. The tension comes on the other side: Logan Gilbert sits at a middling 59%, and Tampa Bay's lineup scores in the first 36% of the time — third-most in MLB. That split, plus the pitcher-friendly Trop, keeps this one near even at a 48% scoreless read.

• Coin flip — Griffin Jax's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 36% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 36% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Casey Mize has been perfect in this spot, posting a 100% NRFI mark across 13 starts and holding the line in all five of his last outings. Cristopher Sanchez counters with a solid 72% figure, though he's slipped to 2-for-5 recently. With both offenses scoring in the first only about a third of the time, the model's 51% scoreless read frames this as a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Casey Mize's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 33% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.