NRFI Results

• NRFI lean — Ryan Feltner has worked a scoreless first in 75% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -131 (53% implied).
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB.

Both starters carry strong first-inning résumés — Bryce Elder at 75% NRFI and Mitch Keller right behind at 76% — which is why the model still gives this a near-even 48%. The tension comes from Pittsburgh's bats, which put up a first-inning run in 41% of games against right-handers, keeping this from tilting fully toward the pitchers.

• Coin flip — Mitch Keller's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 37% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -1.5 (3% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 33% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Michael Wacha brings the sharpest first-inning number here, holding an 82% NRFI rate across 17 starts with four clean openers in his last five. The pushback comes from Sean Manaea's shakier 60% mark and a Royals lineup that plates a first-inning run 33% of the time. The Mets rank near the bottom in early scoring, keeping this a genuine 52% toss-up.

• Coin flip — Michael Wacha's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -102 (48% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Drew Rasmussen brings a solid 75% first-inning zero rate over 16 starts, but Paul Blackburn's 100% NRFI mark comes from just a single outing, so there's little to lean on there. Both offenses rank near the top of the league at plating a first-inning run — Tampa Bay 4th, New York 5th — which keeps this one right around a coin flip at 47%.

• Coin flip — Drew Rasmussen's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 36% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (95% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Trevor Rogers has been a first-inning wall for Baltimore, posting an 80% NRFI mark across 15 starts and cruising through five straight clean openers. The problem is the other side: David Peterson has held the zero just 22% of the time and gave up first-inning runs in three of his last five. With Baltimore only scoring in the first 25% of the time, this one tilts toward a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Trevor Rogers' 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Baltimore Orioles' 25% first-inning bats (24th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +105.5 (46% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 8% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 20% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 14% against left-handers.

Bailey Ober's 82% first-inning shutout rate is the standout here, and Cleveland's bats back it up — the Guardians plate a first-inning run just 24% of the time, 25th in MLB. The catch is Minnesota's offense, the league's most active in the opening frame at 38%, so Gavin Williams keeps this from tilting cleanly one way. That tension lands it near a true coin flip at 48%.

• Coin flip — Bailey Ober's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 38% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -129 (100% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 38% of games, the most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Anthony Kay's 60% NRFI mark over 15 starts gives the White Sox a reliable early anchor, and Boston's bats have been quiet in the first — scoring just 23% of the time, 27th in MLB and only 26% against lefties. The catch is Patrick Sandoval, who hasn't thrown a season start yet, so his side is a guess. That thin sample keeps this a near coin flip at 51% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Anthony Kay's 60% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 32% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -106 (49% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.

Framber Valdez is the reason to lean scoreless, sitting at 71% NRFI across 17 starts and riding a clean 5-for-5 in his last five first innings. The other side muddies it, though: Jack Perkins is a straight 50/50 at 50% NRFI with runs allowed in three of his last five openers. With Comerica playing dead average, it's a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Framber Valdez's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 30% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.

Bryce Miller has been stingy out of the gate, holding a 86% first-inning NRFI mark across seven starts, which tilts one side toward quiet baseball. On the other hand, Janson Junk's 73% NRFI and the Marlins' habit of striking early — they plate a first-inning run 35% of the time — muddy things. With the model at 48% versus the book's 53%, it grades out as a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Bryce Miller's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 35% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -129 (53% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 35% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Jesus Luzardo has kept the first inning clean in 94% of his 17 starts, including all five of his last five — a stark contrast to Brady Singer, who's stranded on a 44% NRFI mark. That gap makes this closer to a lean than a true coin flip, but Singer's shakier starts and Great American's 106 run factor pull it back toward even. Philadelphia scores early 33% of the time against righties.

• Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 94% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -4 (7% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 18% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Logan Henderson has been sharp early, posting an 80% NRFI mark over his five starts, and that's the number that keeps this from tilting toward runs. On the other side, Andre Pallante's 59% first-inning success is far more ordinary, and both offenses stay quiet early — the Cardinals score in the first just 31% of the time, Milwaukee 30%. The model's 48% scoreless read makes it a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Logan Henderson's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115.5 (50% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Both starters carry the momentum here: Reid Detmers has posted zeros in the opening frame in four of his last five, while Nathan Eovaldi is a spotless 5-for-5 over that same stretch. The tension comes from the Angels' bats, who plate a first-inning run in 35% of games and match that against righties. That pull toward YRFI keeps the model at a near-even 51%.

• Coin flip — Reid Detmers' 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -150 (57% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

The Padres' quiet first-inning bat is the anchor here — San Diego scores in only 22% of openers, 29th in MLB, and just 21% against righties like Merrill Kelly, who carries a 60% NRFI mark across 15 starts. Arizona's lineup pushes back with a 33% first-inning score rate, and Petco's 94 run factor tilts things toward quiet, keeping this a genuine coin flip at 51%.

• Coin flip — Merrill Kelly's 60% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 33% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 33% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.