NRFI Results

Logan Webb is the anchor here, sitting down opposing lineups in the first inning 86% of the time across 14 starts, and Toronto's bats have been quiet early, plating a run in just 23% of games. Dylan Cease is shakier at 53% NRFI, but San Francisco scores first-inning runs only 22% of the time against righties. Oracle Park's 94 run factor tilts things toward a scoreless frame.

• NRFI lean — Logan Webb has worked a scoreless first in 86% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -155 (57% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Colin Rea has been reliable early, posting a 71% first-inning shutout rate across 14 starts, and he draws a Baltimore lineup that plates a run in the first just 25% of the time. On the other side, the Cubs rank 30th in first-inning scoring at only 21%, which helps offset Dean Kremer's shakier 33% NRFI. The bats do the heavy lifting toward a scoreless frame here.

• NRFI lean — Colin Rea has worked a scoreless first in 71% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at +105 (46% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 21% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Jake Bennett has been perfect through the first frame all season, posting a clean 100% NRFI across seven starts, and Davis Martin isn't far behind at 88% over 16 outings. Boston's bats add to the lean, plating a first-inning run in just 23% of games and only 18% against righties. Both arms are riding 5-for-5 scoreless streaks lately.

• NRFI lean — Jake Bennett (100% NRFI) and Davis Martin (88%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 33% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 18% against right-handers.

Michael King has been almost untouchable in opening frames, posting a 94% NRFI mark across 16 starts and cruising through the first in all five of his last outings. It helps that the Padres' own bats rank 29th in first-inning scoring, plating a run just 23% of the time. Add Petco's below-average run factor of 94 and the lean tilts NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Jose Cabrera (67% NRFI) and Michael King (94%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Jeffrey Springs takes the mound for Oakland with just a 47% first-inning scoreless rate and back-to-back-to-back rough openers baked into a 2-of-5 recent stretch. That shakiness, paired with Troy Melton also going 2-of-5 lately, nudges this toward a run crossing early. Neither offense scorches in the first, but the pitching signals push the lean to YRFI at 45% scoreless.

• YRFI lean — the Detroit Tigers push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (11th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -102 (48% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 30% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Tyler Phillips has been outstanding out of the gate, sitting at 86% NRFI across his seven starts, but the model still tilts slightly toward a first-inning run. That's largely on George Kirby, whose 69% NRFI mark and shaky recent form — just 3 of his last 5 clean — leaves the door open, especially against a Miami lineup that scores early in 35% of games.

• YRFI lean — the Miami Marlins push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (7th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 35% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 32% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Both starters look sharp on paper — Foster Griffin has posted a first-inning zero in all five of his last starts, and Spencer Arrighetti sits at 79% NRFI on the year. Yet the model reads this leaner than the book, giving just a 47% shot at a scoreless frame, largely because Washington's bats rank 6th in MLB for first-inning scoring. That gap creates the YRFI lean.

• YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +7 (62% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.

• YRFI lean — Great American Ball Park (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Philadelphia Phillies score early in 33% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -5 (8% implied).
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

The Twins own the majors' best first-inning scoring rate at 39%, and that firepower is the story here — even against Slade Cecconi, who's carried a solid 71% NRFI mark and gone scoreless in four of his last five. Connor Prielipp's shakier 58% NRFI, paired with Target Field's 104 run factor, tilts things toward YRFI at Minnesota's 46% scoreless model number.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 39% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -121 (52% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 39% of games, the most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.

Grant Holmes brings a strong 79% first-inning shutout rate into PNC Park, and Jared Jones isn't far behind at 71%, so the arms lean toward zeros. The tension comes from Pittsburgh's bats, which plate a first-inning run in 38% of games — second-most in MLB, and 42% against righties like Holmes. That clash of quality starters and a dangerous home lineup keeps this a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Grant Holmes' 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 38% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -106.5 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 38% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 42% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 33% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

McClanahan has been elite at keeping the board clean early, stranding runs in 81% of his 16 starts, but Cole's 63% NRFI and that 2-for-5 first-inning stretch over his last five muddies the picture. With the Yankees plating a run in the first 47% of the time against lefties and the Rays no slouch either, this one sits right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Shane McClanahan's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 36% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 47% against left-handers.

Christian Scott gives the Mets a solid anchor here, holding a 64% first-inning zero rate across 11 starts, though he's been shakier lately at 4-of-5. The bigger unknown is Steven Cruz, whose 100% NRFI mark rests on a single start — far too thin to trust. Add Kansas City's middling 32% first-inning scoring against righties, and this stays a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Christian Scott's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at 0 (0% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Kyle Harrison and Michael McGreevy have posted near-identical first-inning numbers, with Harrison at 87% NRFI and McGreevy at 81%, and both have gone 4-for-5 over their last five starts. Neither offense pushes the pace either, as the Cardinals score in the first just 30% of the time and the Brewers plate a run only 28% against righties. The model splits it at 52%, matching the book exactly.

• Coin flip — Kyle Harrison's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 30% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Walbert Urena has been elite in the first frame, posting an 86% NRFI mark across 14 starts, and the Rangers rank 22nd in first-inning scoring. But MacKenzie Gore's 71% number is more modest, and the Angels' bats are a live threat, scoring in the opening inning 34% of the time. That tension keeps this one right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Walbert Urena's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Roki Sasaki brings the case for quiet here, with an 80% NRFI mark over 15 starts, but he's cooled slightly at 3-for-5 across his last five. The real wild card is Gabriel Hughes, who hasn't logged a season start yet, and Colorado's bats rank 8th in MLB at scoring in the first. That uncertainty leaves this one right around a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Roki Sasaki's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 35% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +113.5 (44% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 35% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.