NRFI Results
First-inning leans for July 7, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
353-285
638 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
4-3 on 7 leans
NRFI 1-0 · YRFI 3-3
NRFI Leans
1
Oracle Park's pitcher-friendly tilt (94 run factor) sets a quiet tone, and both offenses back it up — the Giants and Blue Jays each plate a first-inning run just 23% of the time, ranking among the bottom of MLB. Spencer Miles has kept the frame scoreless in both his starts, though that's a thin sample, while McDonald sits at 64% NRFI over 11. The lean is to NRFI.
- NRFI lean — Trevor McDonald has worked a scoreless first in 64% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -140.5 (55% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
6
Paul Skenes has been a first-inning wall this year, posting a 76% NRFI mark across 17 starts, but the man opposite him is the reason this leans YRFI. Hurston Waldrep has thrown just one big-league start and gave up a first-inning run in it, and Pittsburgh's bats score early 41% of the time against righties — one of the higher rates in the league. Just note the thin Waldrep sample keeps confidence low.
- YRFI lean — the Pittsburgh Pirates push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (5th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
The Yankees' bats are the wild card here, plating a first-inning run in half their games against left-handers like Ian Seymour — a real threat despite Seymour's 75% NRFI mark across his four starts. Add Tampa Bay's lineup ranking third in MLB for first-inning scoring at 37%, and the model's 47% scoreless read tilts this toward YRFI even with both starters posting strong early-inning numbers.
- YRFI lean — the Tampa Bay Rays push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -122.5 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 37% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 50% against left-handers.
Andrew Alvarez has been perfect through five starts, posting a 100% NRFI mark with the Astros likely to face him — and Houston has dented that hand just 25% of the time. The lean toward YRFI here really rides on the bats: Houston plates a first-inning run in 37% of games, second-most in MLB, and Nationals Park's 102 run factor gives that pop a small nudge.
- YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor tilts the scales here, and the split rotation is the reason this leans YRFI. Andrew Abbott has left the first inning scoreless just 47% of the time across 17 starts, and only twice in his last five — a soft counterweight to Zack Wheeler's sturdy 85% NRFI mark. The model's 45% scoreless figure sits just under the book's 51%.
- YRFI lean — Great American Ball Park (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Philadelphia Phillies score early in 33% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (51% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
Minnesota's bats are the reason to lean YRFI here — the Twins post a first-inning run in 39% of their games, the highest rate in MLB, and Taj Bradley's middling 53% NRFI mark doesn't inspire much confidence on the other side. Joey Cantillo (76% NRFI) is the game's steadying force, but the model's 46% scoreless read tilts toward an early run crossing.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 39% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 39% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
Colorado's bats are the wild card here, plating a first-inning run 35% of the time overall and a heftier 42% against left-handers like Justin Wrobleski — one reason the model gives just a 46% shot at a scoreless frame. Wrobleski's 71% NRFI mark and Michael Lorenzen's shakier 65% (only 2 of 5 recently) round out a lean that tilts toward YRFI at Dodger Stadium.
- YRFI lean — the Colorado Rockies push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (7th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at +112 (44% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 35% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 42% against left-handers.
Coin Flips
9
Jacob Misiorowski brings a shiny 88% NRFI mark across 16 starts, including four scoreless first frames in his last five, which tilts the Brewers' side toward zeros. The problem is the other dugout: Matt Svanson has no season starts, so there's no read on how St. Louis's rotation spot handles the opening inning. With both offenses scoring in the first only about 30% of the time, this one sits near a genuine coin flip.
- Coin flip — Jacob Misiorowski's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 31% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Matthew Boyd's 67% first-inning shutout rate and the fact that Baltimore plates a run in the opening frame just 25% of the time — and only 8% against lefties — tilt this toward a quiet start. Shane Baz complicates things at a coin-flip 50% NRFI, but with the Cubs also sitting near the bottom of MLB in first-inning scoring, the model's 52% feels far more grounded than the book's 86% NRFI.
- Coin flip — Matthew Boyd's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Baltimore Orioles' 25% first-inning bats (23rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (86% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 8% against left-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 21% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
Ginn brings a sturdy 88% first-inning shutout rate into Comerica, but the other side of the pitching matchup is what keeps this a toss-up: Skubal has posted just 50% NRFI across 10 starts and has stumbled early in four of his last five. With both offenses scoring in the first about a third of the time, the model's 49% barely tilts toward a run.
- Coin flip — J.T. Ginn's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 30% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
Bryan Woo has stranded the first inning in 88% of his 16 starts, including all five of his last outings — a strong anchor for the Mariners' side. But Max Meyer sits at a more modest 76% NRFI and has faltered in two of his last five, and Miami's bats rank sixth in MLB for first-inning scoring. That split leaves this one right around a coin flip at 49%.
- Coin flip — Bryan Woo's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 36% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 36% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- Coin flip — Seth Lugo's 44% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
Payton Tolle's 77% first-inning scoreless mark leads all four sides here, and it's paired with a Boston bat that only lights up the first frame 24% of the time. But the White Sox counter with Noah Schultz at 67% NRFI against a Red Sox lineup hitting just 28% versus lefties, so both arms have the edge — yet neither side is quite reliable enough to break the 52% tie.
- Coin flip — Payton Tolle's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 33% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
Hunter Dobbins arrives with just two starts under his belt, splitting them evenly on the NRFI front — hardly enough to draw firm conclusions, which is why confidence stays low here. Robert Gasser's 43% scoreless rate over seven outings tilts things slightly toward a run, but with the Cardinals scoring first just 30% of the time and Milwaukee at 31%, this one reads as a true coin flip.
- Coin flip — Robert Gasser's 43% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 31% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 40% against left-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- Robert Gasser has kept the first inning scoreless in 3 of 7 starts this season (43% NRFI).
Jose Soriano brings the sharpest edge here, having posted a clean first inning in each of his last five starts and a 65% NRFI mark on the year. The tension is on the other side: deGrom's 53% first-inning success is more modest, and the Angels' lineup scores early in 34% of games, a top-ten rate. That split leaves this closer to a toss-up.
- Coin flip — Jose Soriano's 65% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -148 (56% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
German Marquez has kept the first frame clean in 67% of his six starts and four of his last five, giving San Diego a real edge on that side. The wrinkle is Zac Gallen, who owns just a 41% NRFI mark and has faltered in four of his last five, and the Padres' bats rank 29th at scoring early. Those pulls cancel out into a genuine coin flip.
- Coin flip — German Marquez's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -104.5 (48% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
Want full matchup analysis & AI picks? →
Pitcher arsenals, bullpen context, lineup splits, and AI-powered MLB prop analysis — free to start.
Get Started FreeOr browse today’s MLB games or MLB player props.