NRFI Results

• NRFI lean — Max Meyer has worked a scoreless first in 76% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied).
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 36% of games, 6th-most in MLB.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

• NRFI lean — Trevor McDonald has worked a scoreless first in 64% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -140.5 (55% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Paul Skenes has been a first-inning wall this year, posting a 76% NRFI mark across 17 starts, but the man opposite him is the reason this leans YRFI. Hurston Waldrep has thrown just one big-league start and gave up a first-inning run in it, and Pittsburgh's bats score early 41% of the time against righties — one of the higher rates in the league. Just note the thin Waldrep sample keeps confidence low.

• YRFI lean — the Pittsburgh Pirates push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (5th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

The Yankees' bats are the wild card here, plating a first-inning run in half their games against left-handers like Ian Seymour — a real threat despite Seymour's 75% NRFI mark across his four starts. Add Tampa Bay's lineup ranking third in MLB for first-inning scoring at 37%, and the model's 47% scoreless read tilts this toward YRFI even with both starters posting strong early-inning numbers.

• YRFI lean — the Tampa Bay Rays push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -122.5 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 37% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 50% against left-handers.

Andrew Alvarez has been perfect through five starts, posting a 100% NRFI mark with the Astros likely to face him — and Houston has dented that hand just 25% of the time. The lean toward YRFI here really rides on the bats: Houston plates a first-inning run in 37% of games, second-most in MLB, and Nationals Park's 102 run factor gives that pop a small nudge.

• YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.

• YRFI lean — Great American Ball Park (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Philadelphia Phillies score early in 33% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (51% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Minnesota's bats are the reason to lean YRFI here — the Twins post a first-inning run in 39% of their games, the highest rate in MLB, and Taj Bradley's middling 53% NRFI mark doesn't inspire much confidence on the other side. Joey Cantillo (76% NRFI) is the game's steadying force, but the model's 46% scoreless read tilts toward an early run crossing.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 39% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 39% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Colorado's bats are the wild card here, plating a first-inning run 35% of the time overall and a heftier 42% against left-handers like Justin Wrobleski — one reason the model gives just a 46% shot at a scoreless frame. Wrobleski's 71% NRFI mark and Michael Lorenzen's shakier 65% (only 2 of 5 recently) round out a lean that tilts toward YRFI at Dodger Stadium.

• YRFI lean — the Colorado Rockies push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (7th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +112 (44% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 35% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 42% against left-handers.

Jacob Misiorowski brings a shiny 88% NRFI mark across 16 starts, including four scoreless first frames in his last five, which tilts the Brewers' side toward zeros. The problem is the other dugout: Matt Svanson has no season starts, so there's no read on how St. Louis's rotation spot handles the opening inning. With both offenses scoring in the first only about 30% of the time, this one sits near a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jacob Misiorowski's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 31% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Matthew Boyd's 67% first-inning shutout rate and the fact that Baltimore plates a run in the opening frame just 25% of the time — and only 8% against lefties — tilt this toward a quiet start. Shane Baz complicates things at a coin-flip 50% NRFI, but with the Cubs also sitting near the bottom of MLB in first-inning scoring, the model's 52% feels far more grounded than the book's 86% NRFI.

• Coin flip — Matthew Boyd's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Baltimore Orioles' 25% first-inning bats (23rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (86% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 8% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 21% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Ginn brings a sturdy 88% first-inning shutout rate into Comerica, but the other side of the pitching matchup is what keeps this a toss-up: Skubal has posted just 50% NRFI across 10 starts and has stumbled early in four of his last five. With both offenses scoring in the first about a third of the time, the model's 49% barely tilts toward a run.

• Coin flip — J.T. Ginn's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -132 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 30% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

• Coin flip — Seth Lugo's 44% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied).
• The New York Mets score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB.

Payton Tolle's 77% first-inning scoreless mark leads all four sides here, and it's paired with a Boston bat that only lights up the first frame 24% of the time. But the White Sox counter with Noah Schultz at 67% NRFI against a Red Sox lineup hitting just 28% versus lefties, so both arms have the edge — yet neither side is quite reliable enough to break the 52% tie.

• Coin flip — Payton Tolle's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 33% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.

• Coin flip — Robert Gasser's 43% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 31% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 40% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• Robert Gasser has kept the first inning scoreless in 3 of 7 starts this season (43% NRFI).

Jose Soriano brings the sharpest edge here, having posted a clean first inning in each of his last five starts and a 65% NRFI mark on the year. The tension is on the other side: deGrom's 53% first-inning success is more modest, and the Angels' lineup scores early in 34% of games, a top-ten rate. That split leaves this closer to a toss-up.

• Coin flip — Jose Soriano's 65% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -148 (56% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

German Marquez has kept the first frame clean in 67% of his six starts and four of his last five, giving San Diego a real edge on that side. The wrinkle is Zac Gallen, who owns just a 41% NRFI mark and has faltered in four of his last five, and the Padres' bats rank 29th at scoring early. Those pulls cancel out into a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — German Marquez's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -104.5 (48% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.