NRFI Results

Tanner Bibee gives Cleveland a steady first-inning anchor, posting a 71% NRFI clip across 17 starts, and the White Sox opposite him only push a run across in the opening frame 25% of the time versus righties. Cleveland's own bats have been quiet early, scoring in just 23% of first innings — 27th in MLB. Chris Murphy's 100% mark comes from a single start, so temper the confidence, but the lean tilts NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Tanner Bibee has worked a scoreless first in 71% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Javier Assad has kept the first frame clean in 83% of his six starts, and he's drawing a Cubs-friendly matchup where the Cardinals plate a first-inning run just 30% of the time, 27% against righties. On the other side, Liberatore's 63% NRFI faces a Chicago lineup that scores early in only 20% of games and just 14% versus lefties. The run-suppressing Wrigley factor of 94 adds to the scoreless lean.

• NRFI lean — Matthew Liberatore (63% NRFI) and Javier Assad (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (97% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 20% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 14% against left-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Emerson Hancock brings the sharpest edge here, sitting scoreless in the first in 79% of his 14 starts and four of his last five. Toronto's bats haven't helped their own cause either, plating a first-inning run in just 24% of games — 26th in MLB. Add T-Mobile Park's run-suppressing 83 factor, and the lean tilts NRFI at 57%.

• NRFI lean — Trey Yesavage (67% NRFI) and Emerson Hancock (79%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Cade Cavalli enters as the softer half of this pitching matchup, posting a 65% NRFI mark that dips to just 2-of-5 over his last five starts. That plays into a Pirates lineup that scores in the first 37% of the time — fourth-most in MLB and up at 40% against righties. With Nationals Park nudging run factor above average, the edge tilts YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Pittsburgh Pirates push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.

Two of the busiest first-inning offenses in baseball collide here, with the Twins scoring in the opening frame more than any other club and the Yankees ranking third. Minnesota's 36% first-inning strike rate against lefties is a problem for Ryan Weathers, whose 63% NRFI is the softer of the two starters. The model's 43% scoreless number leans YRFI against the market's 51%.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 38% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 43%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 38% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 38% of games, the most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.

Luinder Avila is the reason this one tilts toward first-inning action — the Royals righty has posted a scoreless opening frame in just 29% of his seven starts. Aaron Nola brings a sturdy 81% NRFI mark for Philadelphia, but the Phillies' bats plate a run in the first 33% of the time, and Kauffman's slightly above-average run factor doesn't help Avila's cause.

• YRFI lean — the Philadelphia Phillies push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (10th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +108 (45% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

• YRFI lean — the Tampa Bay Rays push a first-inning run across in 38% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -7.5 (11% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 37% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 38% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.

Coors Field and its 128 run factor set the table here, and Tanner Gordon does little to calm things — he's held the first inning scoreless in just 33% of his three starts. The Rockies plate a run in the opening frame 35% of the time, sixth-most in baseball, which tilts this toward YRFI even with Tyler Mahle's steadier 58% NRFI mark on the other side.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 35% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +138 (40% implied); the model has it 41%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.

Eduardo Rodriguez has kept the first frame clean in just 56% of his 16 starts, and Chase Field's 106 park factor gives any early contact a bit more room to travel. The Brewers' bats have plated a run in the opening inning 37% of the time against lefties, enough to tip this one toward YRFI despite Brandon Sproat's sturdy 77% NRFI rate on the other side.

• YRFI lean — Chase Field (NH) (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Milwaukee Brewers score early in 31% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -106 (49% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.

Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor is the loudest signal here, inflating scoring in a spot where Eury Perez brings only a 54% NRFI mark and has been scored on in three of his last five first innings. That leans YRFI even though Gage Jump has been sharp early (86% NRFI, 5-for-5 lately). The park and Perez tip the balance toward an early run for Miami.

• YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Miami Marlins score early in 35% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +102 (47% implied); the model has it 42%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 35% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.

Both starters have been shutting the door early: Nolan McLean carries an 81% NRFI mark across 16 outings, while Martin Perez sits at 77%, and each has posted a clean first inning in his last five starts. The Mets' lineup rarely strikes early, scoring in the opening frame just 25% of the time, so why does this land as a toss-up? The model's slim 52% edge reflects Truist's slightly run-friendly 102 park factor keeping it close to even.

• Coin flip — Nolan McLean's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.

Kyle Bradish brings an elite 88% NRFI mark into Cincinnati, and Nick Lodolo counters with five straight scoreless first innings, so both arms lean toward a quiet frame. What keeps this a coin flip is Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor, which nudges the model back to just a 53% scoreless read against the market's 50%. Baltimore's bats have started slow (13% vs lefties), but the ballpark evens things out.

• Coin flip — Kyle Bradish's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 29% first-inning bats (21st-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -112.5 (50% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 13% against left-handers.

Casey Mize is the headline here, riding a spotless 100% first-inning NRFI mark across 12 starts, and Texas has only put up a first-frame run in 28% of games. The other side complicates it: Kumar Rocker sits at just 36% NRFI, and Detroit's bats have scored in the first 33% of the time — enough tension to keep this a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Casey Mize's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 33% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -133.5 (54% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Emmet Sheehan gives the Dodgers a slight edge here, posting a 57% NRFI mark across 14 starts and holding scoreless first frames in four of his last five. JP Sears counters with a razor-thin two-start sample at 50%, which is why confidence is low. San Diego's bats scoring in the first just 22% of the time helps balance out Dodger Stadium's slightly hitter-friendly 102 factor, keeping this a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Emmet Sheehan's 57% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +113 (44% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.

Ranger Suarez has kept the first frame clean in 73% of his starts, including four of his last five, and Boston's bats rank 25th in the league at scoring early. The counterweight is Angel Stadium's slightly hitter-friendly 102 run factor and Ryan Johnson's thin three-start sample. With both offenses quiet in the opening frame, the model sits right at 50%, a hair under the book's 52%.

• Coin flip — Ranger Suarez's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -127 (52% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.