NRFI Results

Logan Gilbert's 56% first-inning scoreless rate at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park (83 run factor) is the anchor here, and Toronto's bats have plated a run in just 24% of opening frames — 25th in MLB. The one caveat is Shane Bieber, who's yet to log a clean first over his two starts, keeping this a modest NRFI lean rather than a firm one.

• NRFI lean — Logan Gilbert has worked a scoreless first in 56% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Parker Messick has yet to allow a first-inning run across 17 starts, a spotless NRFI mark that gets even more attention given the White Sox only put up a first-inning run 31% of the time. Cleveland's bats have been quiet early too, scoring in the opening frame just 24% of games, and pitcher-friendly Progressive Field (94 run factor) nudges things toward a scoreless top of the order.

• NRFI lean — Sean Burke (67% NRFI) and Parker Messick (100%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.

Shota Imanaga has been a first-inning wall lately, working around trouble to a clean frame in all five of his last five starts and posting an 81% NRFI mark on the season. Kyle Leahy matches that pedigree at 80%, and Wrigley's 94 park factor tamps things down further. With the Cubs plating a first-inning run in just 20% of games, the model's 57% scoreless read edges the market.

• NRFI lean — Kyle Leahy (80% NRFI) and Shota Imanaga (81%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 20% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.

Both offenses rank in the upper tier for first-inning scoring — the Pirates are 4th-most in MLB, the Nationals 8th — which is what nudges this toward YRFI. Braxton Ashcraft brings a strong 81% NRFI mark, but he's cooled to 2-of-5 in his last five starts. Carson Palmquist's 100% figure comes from just one career start, so there's little to lean on there.

• YRFI lean — the Pittsburgh Pirates push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +112 (45% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.

Zebby Matthews carries just a 44% first-inning shutout rate into the Bronx, and he's stumbled lately with only two clean opening frames in his last five. Both offenses swing hot bats early, ranking first and second in MLB at scoring in the first at 38% apiece. With Brendan Beck making his first career start and no track record to lean on, the edge tilts toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 38% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +115 (43% implied); the model has it 42%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 38% of games, the most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 38% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.

Coors Field and its 128 run factor is the loudest voice here, and Tomoyuki Sugano hasn't quieted it — his 53% first-inning NRFI rate and just 2 clean starts over his last 5 leave the door open. The Rockies also plate a first-inning run 41% of the time against lefties like Robbie Ray, enough to nudge this toward YRFI despite Ray's own strong 80% mark.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 34% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +126 (42% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 41% against left-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Sutter Health Park plays as a run-heaven venue with a 117 park factor, and that alone tilts this toward YRFI. Miami's bats push the lean further, scoring in the first 35% of the time (6th-most in MLB) and 36% against right-handers like Aaron Civale, whose 64% first-inning shutdown rate is the shakier of the two starters. Sandy Alcantara's 76% NRFI mark offers a counterweight, but the model still gives the scoreless first just a 43% shot.

• YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Miami Marlins score early in 35% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +125 (41% implied); the model has it 43%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Chase Field's hitter-friendly run factor of 106 is the main nudge toward YRFI here, even with Brandon Woodruff carrying a strong 75% NRFI rate and five straight clean first innings. The tension is Merrill Kelly, whose 57% mark and just two clean opening frames in his last five starts leave a crack. With Milwaukee's bats scoring first in 32% of games, it's close to a coin flip that tilts slightly toward a run.

• YRFI lean — Chase Field (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Milwaukee Brewers score early in 32% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +104 (46% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Jack Flaherty is the tale of two arms here, holding a stellar 80% NRFI mark across 15 starts while Kumar Rocker sits at just 36% for Texas. That gap keeps this a genuine coin flip, especially with Detroit's bats putting up a first-inning run 33% of the time against righties. Globe Life Field's 94 run factor nudges things slightly toward quiet, but the model still lands at 49%.

• Coin flip — Jack Flaherty's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 32% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Brandon Young brings a solid 69% first-inning shutout rate into Cincinnati, and neither offense does much damage early — the Reds and Orioles both plate a first-inning run in roughly a quarter of their games. The wild card is Hunter Greene, who has no starts yet this season, leaving Great American's hitter-friendly 106 park factor as the main tilt toward a run.

• Coin flip — Brandon Young's 69% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 28% first-inning bats (22nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -106 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Hunter Brown has kept the first inning clean in all four of his starts, and Drew Rasmussen isn't far behind with an 80% NRFI mark over 15 outings. But both lineups swing the needle back toward a scoreless-inning question: Tampa Bay scores in the first 37% of the time (39% versus righties) and Houston 36%, keeping this one a genuine toss-up near the model's 47%.

• Coin flip — Hunter Brown's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 37% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -142 (55% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.

Chris Sale is the anchor here, sitting on an 86% first-inning scoreless rate across 14 starts and a spotless 5-for-5 over his last five. The other side of the ledger drags it back to even: Sean Manaea has posted just a 50% NRFI mark in four outings, and Atlanta plates a first-inning run in 32% of games. That split leaves the model at 51%, right on the market's line.

• Coin flip — Chris Sale's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 25% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Jesus Luzardo has been elite in opening frames, holding a 94% NRFI over 16 starts with five straight scoreless firsts, and Michael Wacha's 81% mark isn't far behind. What keeps this from tilting harder toward NRFI are two lineups that both put up first-inning runs about a third of the time, with the Phillies scoring 35% against righties. The model's 51% lands right on the fence.

• Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 94% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Sonny Gray's 57% NRFI rate and Sam Aldegheri's 60% suggest both starters can navigate the first, yet neither has been sharp lately — Gray posted scoreless firsts in just 2 of his last 5. The Red Sox rarely strike early, plating a first-inning run in only 23% of games, but the Angels' 33% rate keeps this a genuine tossup at Angel Stadium.

• Coin flip — Sam Aldegheri's 60% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.

Yamamoto has kept the first frame clean in 64% of his 14 starts, and San Diego's bats offer little threat — they've scored in the opening inning just 23% of the time, near the bottom of MLB. The catch is Griffin Canning's shakier 56% NRFI rate against a Dodgers lineup that plates a first-inning run 33% of the time, keeping this one right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Wandy Peralta's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 33% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.