NRFI Results

Joey Cantillo brings the sturdiest first-inning résumé to Progressive Field, posting a 75% NRFI rate across 16 starts, with MacKenzie Gore close behind at 69%. Cleveland's offense pushes across a run in the first just 24% of the time, and Texas isn't much livelier at 29%. Two quiet lineups in a pitcher-friendly park (94 run factor) nudge this toward NRFI.

• NRFI lean — MacKenzie Gore (69% NRFI) and Joey Cantillo (75%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Walker Buehler has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his 16 starts, including all five of his last five, and he draws a Cubs lineup that scores in the opening frame just 20% of the time. Neither offense does much early — San Diego plates a first-inning run in only 21% of games — and Wrigley's 94 park factor tilts things toward pitching. The model's 60% NRFI read tops the market's 38% by a wide margin.

• NRFI lean — Walker Buehler (88% NRFI) and Colin Rea (69%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at +149 (38% implied); the model has it 60%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 20% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 21% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.

Braydon Fisher hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his five starts, and Freddy Peralta counters with an 81% NRFI mark across 16 outings. Neither offense does much early either — Toronto plates a first-inning run just 23% of the time and only 26% against righties, keeping this one tilted toward NRFI at the Rogers Centre.

• NRFI lean — Freddy Peralta (81% NRFI) and Braydon Fisher (100%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Will Warren has been dependable out of the gate for the Yankees, posting a 73% NRFI mark over 15 starts, but the wobble comes from the other dugout. Troy Melton has kept the first inning clean only 50% of the time and has surrendered a run in two of his last five outings. Against a Detroit lineup that scores early 33% of the time versus righties, the lean tips slightly toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 38% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +102 (47% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 38% of games, the most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Two aces on the mound here, with Wheeler protecting first innings in 83% of his 12 starts (5-for-5 lately) and Skenes at 75%, so the pitching case for NRFI is strong. What tips this toward YRFI are the bats: Pittsburgh scores in the first 38% of the time, second-most in MLB and 40% against righties. The model's 47% scoreless read sits well under the book's 56%.

• YRFI lean — the Pittsburgh Pirates push a first-inning run across in 38% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -145.5 (56% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 38% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.

Seth Lugo's shaky first-inning form is the crack in this one — a 47% NRFI rate that's fallen apart lately with clean openers in just one of his last five starts. Tampa Bay's bats add pressure, ranking third in MLB for first-inning scoring and pushing across a run 40% of the time against righties. McClanahan's 80% NRFI keeps it close, but the lean tilts slightly toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Tampa Bay Rays push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +110.5 (45% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.

Taj Bradley's 57% first-inning clean rate is the soft spot here, and Houston's bats — one of MLB's most frequent early scorers at 36% overall and 37% against righties — are equipped to exploit it. Tatsuya Imai's sturdy 80% NRFI mark gives the other side some balance, but the model's 45% scoreless figure tilts this toward YRFI against the book's 51%.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -117.5 (51% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Coors Field and its 128 park factor do most of the talking here, dragging the first-inning scoreless odds down to 41%. Max Meyer's 81% NRFI mark over 16 starts is the outlier that keeps this from tilting harder toward runs, but Kyle Freeland at just 62% is the softer end of the equation. The altitude tips the balance toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Miami Marlins score early in 34% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 41%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Zac Gallen has posted a first-inning run in 62% of his 16 starts and just one clean opener over his last five, which is the loudest signal here. Playing at hitter-friendly Chase Field (106 park factor) only adds to the risk, though neither offense scores early often — Arizona in 29% of games, San Francisco just 22% — keeping this a modest YRFI lean.

• YRFI lean — Chase Field (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Arizona Diamondbacks score early in 29% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -1 (2% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.

Noah Schultz brings a 63% NRFI mark over eight starts, and he draws a friendly first-inning assignment against a Baltimore lineup that plates a run in just 13% of games versus lefties. The bigger question is Dean Kremer, who has only two starts to lean on — that thin sample keeps this at a 50/50 read. Camden Yards' neutral park factor doesn't tip the scale either way.

• Coin flip — Noah Schultz's 63% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +107 (45% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 13% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Andrew Alvarez has kept the first inning clean in all five of his starts, and Payton Tolle isn't far behind at 83% NRFI over 12 outings, with both lefties riding a 5-for-5 stretch. The Red Sox rank near the bottom in first-inning scoring at just 23%, which helps offset Fenway's hitter-friendly 108 park factor. The model's slim 51% scoreless read keeps this one a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Payton Tolle's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 33% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105.5 (48% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

McGreevy has been outstanding at keeping the first frame clean, posting an 87% NRFI mark across 15 starts and a perfect 5-for-5 in his last five. The problem is the guy across from him: Reynaldo Lopez sits at just 20% NRFI and has stumbled through the opening inning in four of his last five outings. Those clashing profiles land this one right at a coin flip, 49% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Michael McGreevy's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 31% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -103.5 (48% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Shane Drohan has kept the first frame clean in 83% of his six starts, and the Reds have plated a first-inning run in just 28% of their games — 20% against lefties like him. The problem is the other side: Andrew Abbott sits at an even 50% NRFI, giving Milwaukee's slightly hotter bats a path to break through. That split leaves this one a genuine coin flip at 50%.

• Coin flip — Shane Drohan's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 32% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 20% against left-handers.

Ohtani has kept the first inning scoreless in all 13 of his starts, and Ginn isn't far behind at 87% over 15 outings — a strong pair of arms that should tilt this toward NRFI. The catch is Sutter Health Park's inflated 117 run factor, plus two lineups that both score early around a third of the time, which is enough to keep this a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Shohei Ohtani's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 34% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +117 (43% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.