NRFI Results

Sean Burke gives the White Sox an edge with his 73% NRFI rate across 11 starts, and Baltimore's offense rarely shows up early, scoring in the first just 22% of the time. The flip side is Shane Baz, who sits at 47% NRFI and has just one scoreless first in his last five outings, balancing this out to a true coin flip at 50%.

• Coin flip — Sean Burke's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -112.5 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 22% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Two strong arms here make the case for quiet first frame: Braxton Ashcraft has held NRFI in 87% of his 15 starts, with Aaron Nola close behind at 80% for Philadelphia. The catch is that both lineups punch back early — Pittsburgh's bats lead MLB by scoring in the first 39% of the time, and the Phillies aren't far off. With the model at 48% versus the book's 49%, it's a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Braxton Ashcraft's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 39% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 39% of games, the most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.

Casey Mize has been spotless in the first frame, posting a perfect NRFI mark across all 11 starts and holding the line in each of his last five. The tension comes on the other side: Ryan Weathers sits at just 67% NRFI, and the Yankees plate a first-inning run 38% of the time, third-most in MLB. That clash leaves this one a genuine coin flip, though the model's 49% edges past the book's 36%.

• Coin flip — Casey Mize's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 38% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (36% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 38% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Miles Mikolas brings a perfect 100% first-inning record into Fenway, set against a Red Sox lineup that scores in the opening frame just 22% of the time and even less, 19%, against righties. Ranger Suarez counters at 79% NRFI, both starters riding 5-for-5 streaks. The arms point clean, but Fenway's 108 park factor and Washington's livelier bats nudge this toward a true 52% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Miles Mikolas' 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 32% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (97% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 22% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 19% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

Lodolo has been a first-inning wall this season, posting a 78% NRFI rate across nine starts, and Cincinnati's bats have only struck early in 26% of games. The hesitation comes from the other side: Gasser sits at a middling 50% NRFI over six starts, and Milwaukee plates a first-inning run in 32% of games. American Family Field's 94 run factor nudges it toward quiet, keeping this a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Nick Lodolo's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -106 (48% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 20% against left-handers.

George Kirby's 73% first-inning shutdown rate over 15 starts is the steadiest signal here, and T-Mobile Park's run factor of 83 suppresses scoring further. The catch is Ryan Johnson, who's posted a coin-flip 50% NRFI across just two starts — too thin a sample to trust. With both lineups scoring early around a third of the time, this one sits right at 52% scoreless.

• Coin flip — George Kirby's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Seattle Mariners' 35% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Tyler Mahle's 64% first-inning shutdown rate is the strongest arm in this one, and the Diamondbacks plate a run in just 26% of openers against righties — that's enough to make the Giants' side lean quiet. But Chase Field's 106 run factor and Eduardo Rodriguez's middling 53% NRFI cloud the other half, leaving this game right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Tyler Mahle's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 28% first-inning bats (21st-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111.5 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.