NRFI Results

Jake Bennett has kept the first inning clean in 93% of his 15 starts, and that's the number driving this lean — Boston's lefty simply doesn't hand out early runs. Carlos Rodon backs it up with five straight scoreless openers, facing a Red Sox lineup that scores in the first just 24% of the time and no better against southpaws. The model's 56% edges the book's 53%, with Yankee Stadium playing dead average.

• NRFI lean — Jake Bennett (93% NRFI) and Carlos Rodon (73%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

Jose Soriano has kept the first inning clean in 76% of his 25 starts, including each of his last five, and Toronto's bats give him plenty of help on the other side — the Blue Jays plate a first-inning run just 23% of the time, 30th in MLB, and only 17% against lefties like Kade Anderson. The catch is Anderson's one-start sample, which is why the 54% model number sits right on the book's 55% and the lean stays mild.

• NRFI lean — Jose Soriano has worked a scoreless first in 76% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -142.5 (55% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Sandy Alcantara has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 27 starts, and Cade Cavalli isn't far behind at 78% — both are riding a 5-for-5 stretch over their last five outings. The pushback comes from Washington's bats, which put a run on the board in the first 32% of the time, seventh-most in the majors, in a Nationals Park that plays slightly hitter-friendly at 102. Model lands at 53% scoreless, a hair under the book's 55%.

• NRFI lean — Sandy Alcantara (85% NRFI) and Cade Cavalli (78%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Merrill Kelly has kept the first inning clean in 67% of his 24 starts, including four of his last five, and he's facing a Giants lineup that scores in the opening frame just 25% of the time — 21% against righties. Matt Wilkinson is 2-for-2 in scoreless firsts, though two starts tells you very little. Oracle Park's 94 run factor nudges things further toward NRFI, hence the modest 54% read.

• NRFI lean — Merrill Kelly has worked a scoreless first in 67% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -121.5 (52% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Foster Griffin has kept the first inning clean in 80% of his 25 starts, and that's the backbone of the lean here — Kansas City puts a run on the board in the opening frame 31% of the time, but Griffin's track record blunts that. On the other side, Daniel Lynch IV is the wobblier half at 50% NRFI across just four starts, though Cleveland's bats only strike first 27% of the time (25% against lefties). Progressive Field's 94 run factor nudges it further toward quiet, hence the modest 54% scoreless read against a market at 52%.

• NRFI lean — Foster Griffin has worked a scoreless first in 80% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Walker Buehler and Nick Martinez both sit above 80% NRFI on the season — 81% across 26 starts for Buehler, 83% over 24 for Martinez — which is a tough combination to score against early. San Diego's offense compounds it, plating a first-inning run in just 23% of games and 20% against righties. Tropicana Field's 95 run factor nudges the model to 57%, ahead of the market's 51%.

• NRFI lean — Walker Buehler (81% NRFI) and Nick Martinez (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (51% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.

Max Fried has kept the first inning clean in 71% of his 14 starts, and he's facing a Red Sox offense that plates a run in the opening frame just 24% of the time — 28th in MLB, with no bump against lefties. The counterweight is Alec Gamboa, who owns a spotless first-inning mark but across exactly one start, so there's little to lean on. The model's 54% sits just under the book's 56%, making this a mild NRFI tilt rather than a strong one.

• NRFI lean — Max Fried has worked a scoreless first in 71% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -146 (56% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

Cal Quantrill has kept the first inning clean in nine of 10 starts this year, including all five of his last five, and Shane Drohan isn't far behind at 87% across 15 outings. Neither offense pushes early either — Texas and Milwaukee both plate a first-inning run in just 28% of games, and the Rangers dip to 22% against lefties. American Family Field's 94 run factor nudges it further toward zeros.

• NRFI lean — Cal Quantrill (90% NRFI) and Shane Drohan (87%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.

• NRFI lean — Mitch Bratt has worked a scoreless first in 78% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -128 (53% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB.

Erick Fedde has kept the first inning clean in just 42% of his 12 starts, and he's walking into Target Field (104 run factor) against a Twins lineup that puts a run on the board in the opening frame 35% of the time — second-most in baseball. That's the engine behind the YRFI lean. Bailey Ober is the counterweight at 74% NRFI, which is why the model still gives a scoreless first a 44% shot.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -0.5 (1% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor is doing most of the heavy lifting here, because neither offense has been especially quick out of the gate — Oakland plates a first-inning run in 28% of games, Baltimore just 25%. Shane Baz has kept the first clean in 64% of his 25 starts, and Jack Perkins sits at 55%, so the modest YRFI lean is really a ballpark story more than a pitching one.

• YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Oakland Athletics score early in 28% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -1 (2% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.