NRFI Results
First-inning leans for August 26, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
302-249
551 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
5-4 on 9 leans
NRFI 4-3 · YRFI 1-1
NRFI Leans
7
Logan Webb has kept the first inning clean in 18 of 22 starts and all five of his last, which is the anchor here — especially with Oracle Park's 94 run factor tamping things down. Nick Lodolo hasn't been quite as sharp lately (three scoreless firsts in his last five), but the Giants only put up a first-inning run in 24% of games, 28th in MLB. The model's 58% sits a touch above the book's implied 54%.
- NRFI lean — Nick Lodolo (73% NRFI) and Logan Webb (82%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 58%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Jesus Luzardo has kept the first inning clean in 23 of 25 starts this year — a 92% clip that's tough to fade, and Bryan Woo counters at 83% over 23 outings of his own. T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor only tightens the screws further. Philadelphia's bats rank sixth in MLB at scoring early but slip to 26% against lefties, which is why the model sits at 60% NRFI against a 57% market number.
- NRFI lean — Jesus Luzardo (92% NRFI) and Bryan Woo (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -150 (57% implied); the model has it 60%.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
Randy Vasquez has kept the first inning clean in each of his last five starts, and San Diego's bats give Bubba Chandler a soft landing — the Padres plate a first-inning run in just 24% of games, 29th in MLB, and only 20% against right-handers. Petco's 94 run factor helps too. Pittsburgh's 34% mark versus righties is the one thing keeping this from a stronger NRFI read.
- NRFI lean — Bubba Chandler (75% NRFI) and Randy Vasquez (68%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
Sonny Gray has kept the first inning clean in 74% of his 23 starts, including all five of his last five, and Ryan Gusto matches him at 75% across 12 outings. Neither offense pushes much early either — Boston scores in the opening frame just 25% of the time, Miami 29%. loanDepot's 102 run factor is the only nudge the other way, which is why the model lands at 53% and the book at 54%.
- NRFI lean — Sonny Gray (74% NRFI) and Ryan Gusto (75%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
Spencer Miles hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his four starts, and Randy Dobnak isn't far behind at 86% NRFI across seven. The bigger tell is Toronto's bats: the Blue Jays have scored in the opening frame just 22% of the time, 30th in MLB and only 25% against righties. Kansas City's 31% first-inning rate is the one crack in an otherwise quiet setup.
- NRFI lean — Randy Dobnak (86% NRFI) and Spencer Miles (100%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Dustin May has kept the opening frame clean in 65% of his 23 starts, including four of his last five, and Robert Stock counters with a 75% NRFI mark across his four outings. Neither lineup does much early either — the Mets score in the first just 27% of the time, the Brewers the same. Still, the model's 53% is far shy of the 97% the book implies at pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
- NRFI lean — Dustin May (65% NRFI) and Robert Stock (75%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -127 (97% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 27% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Kyle Bradish has kept the first inning clean in 92% of his 24 starts, including each of his last five, and that's the number driving this lean. St. Louis ranks ninth in MLB at scoring in the opening frame (32%), but that rate dips to 25% against right-handers, and Michael McGreevy's 78% NRFI mark holds up against a Baltimore offense that plates a first-inning run just 25% of the time.
- NRFI lean — Kyle Bradish (92% NRFI) and Michael McGreevy (78%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
2
Detroit's bats rank fourth in MLB at scoring in the opening frame (33% of games), and Tampa Bay isn't far behind at 32%, seventh-most — two top-10 first-inning offenses colliding at a neutral Comerica Park. Freddy Peralta's 68% season NRFI rate looks solid until you notice he's cleared the first unscathed just twice in his last five. The model's 47% scoreless sits well under the book's implied 54%.
- YRFI lean — the Detroit Tigers push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -135.5 (54% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor sets the backdrop, and Connor Prielipp is the reason this leans YRFI: the Twins lefty has a clean first in just 56% of his 18 starts and only twice in his last five. J.T. Ginn is the counterweight at 83% NRFI with five straight scoreless firsts, but Minnesota's bats rank second in MLB for first-inning scoring at 34%. Model and market essentially agree here.
- YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Minnesota Twins score early in 34% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
6
Matthew Boyd has kept the first inning clean in 73% of his 15 starts, and neither offense here is a fast starter — Arizona plates a first-inning run 30% of the time (28% against lefties), the Cubs just 26%. The catch is Chase Field's 106 run factor and Eduardo Rodriguez's more ordinary 60% NRFI mark, which is why the model sits at 49%, essentially even with the book's 51%.
- Coin flip — Matthew Boyd's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
Joey Cantillo has kept the first inning clean in 73% of his 26 starts, but he's walking into the wrong lineup for it — the Angels put up a first-inning run in 34% of their games, the highest rate in MLB, and 37% against left-handers. Grayson Rodriguez sits at 64% NRFI opposite a Cleveland offense that scores early just 27% of the time, which is why the model lands at a near-even 49%.
- Coin flip — Joey Cantillo's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -121.5 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, the most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Tanner Gordon and Matt Waldron both carry 67% first-inning shutout rates, but those come from just six and three starts respectively, so there isn't much to lean on there. Working against them: Colorado ranks fifth in MLB scoring in the opening frame (33%) and Washington sits 10th (32%), and Nationals Park plays slightly hitter-friendly at 102. Model and market agree at 47% NRFI — genuinely even.
- Coin flip — Tanner Gordon's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 33% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -103 (47% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Peter Lambert has kept the first inning clean in 73% of his 22 starts, but just two of his last five — a wobble that matters against a Houston lineup he isn't facing. On the other side, Elmer Rodriguez owns a 75% NRFI mark through only four starts, and the Astros plate a first-inning run 34% of the time, third-most in MLB. Yankee Stadium plays neutral, and both the model and market land at 50%.
- Coin flip — Elmer Rodriguez's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -110.5 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
Roki Sasaki has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 22 starts, including each of his last five, and that's the sturdiest number on the board. The wrinkle is AJ Smith-Shawver's spotless 2-for-2 mark — two starts tell you almost nothing, and the Dodgers put up first-inning runs in 32% of games, eighth-most in MLB. At a slightly hitter-friendly Truist Park, the model sits near 52%, well under the book's 63% NRFI.
- Coin flip — Roki Sasaki's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +3 (63% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
Sean Burke has kept the first frame clean in 76% of his 21 starts, the best number on the board here, and MacKenzie Gore counters at 69% across 26. What keeps this from tilting harder toward zeros is Chicago's bat: the White Sox plate a first-inning run in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, and Gore has only been clean in three of his last five. Model sits at 51%, just under the book's 54%.
- Coin flip — Sean Burke's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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