NRFI Results

Payton Tolle has kept the first inning clean in 71% of his 21 starts, and Miami's bats have been quiet early — scoring in the opening frame just 27% of the time against lefties. The other half is shakier: Tyler Phillips sits at 64% NRFI overall but has allowed a first-inning run in three of his last five, and loanDepot park plays slightly run-friendly at 102. Model lands at 52% scoreless, a hair under the book's 55%.

• Coin flip — Payton Tolle's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 29% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -140.5 (55% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Andrew Alvarez hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his 11 starts, which is the kind of number that anchors an NRFI case — except Colorado has been one of the game's better opening-frame offenses, plating a run in 33% of games and 38% against lefties. Kyle Freeland's 64% clean-first rate is solid but not airtight, and Nationals Park nudges run scoring up slightly. Model sits at 49%, just under the book's 52%.

• Coin flip — Andrew Alvarez's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 33% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.

Ethan Pecko's spotless first-inning line comes from exactly one career start, so there's almost nothing to lean on from the Houston side — which is why this sits near a coin flip at 48% scoreless. Will Warren has cleared the first in 65% of his 23 starts, but he draws an Astros lineup that scores in the opening frame 34% of the time, third-most in MLB and 38% against righties. The Yankees' quieter 21% mark versus right-handers balances the scales.

• Coin flip — Will Warren's 65% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +108 (45% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.

Toronto's bats rank 30th in first-inning scoring, plating a run just 22% of the time and only 24% against righties — which is exactly the kind of number Seth Lugo (52% NRFI) can lean on. The pull the other way is Max Scherzer, who's held the first scoreless in just 45% of his 11 starts against a Kansas City group that scores early 30% of the time. At 48% scoreless in a neutral Rogers Centre, it's a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Seth Lugo's 52% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 30% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108.5 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Tyler Glasnow has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his six starts, and Bryce Elder isn't far behind at 78% across 23 — yet the model still lands at 51% scoreless. The reason is the offenses: the Dodgers plate a first-inning run in 32% of games (8th in MLB, 33% vs righties), and Truist Park's 102 run factor nudges things up. Essentially a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Tyler Glasnow's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Anthony Kay has kept the first inning clean in 70% of his 23 starts, and Jacob deGrom sits at 58% with four scoreless openers in his last five — on paper that's a quiet start at Rate Field, where the park factor of 98 nudges slightly below average. Yet both offenses land near the middle of the pack in first-inning scoring, so the model settles at 49% scoreless, essentially a toss-up that the book's 37% NRFI price doesn't reflect.

• Coin flip — Anthony Kay's 70% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (37% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.

Chris Bassitt has kept the first inning clean in 64% of his 11 starts, including four of his last five, and he draws a Cardinals lineup that scores in the opening frame 32% of the time overall but just 25% against right-handers. On the other side, Matthew Liberatore's 58% NRFI rate meets a Baltimore offense that's plated a first-inning run in only 8% of its games versus lefties. Busch plays neutral, and the model's 49% scoreless read sits right on top of the market's 51% — genuinely even.

• Coin flip — Chris Bassitt's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 8% against left-handers.

Walbert Urena has kept the first inning clean in 90% of his 21 starts, including all five of his last, and Cleveland's bats rank 22nd in first-inning scoring at 27%. The other half is messier: the Angels put up a run in the opening frame 34% of the time, second-most in MLB, and Angel Stadium's 102 run factor nudges things up. That tension leaves the model at 53% scoreless, below the book's 60%.

• Coin flip — Walbert Urena's 90% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -172 (60% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Clay Holmes has kept the first inning clean in 82% of his 11 starts, and Brandon Pfaadt isn't far behind at 77% over 13 — numbers that would normally point firmly toward NRFI. What keeps this one balanced is Chase Field's 106 run factor working against two lineups that rarely strike early, with Arizona scoring in the first 30% of the time and the Cubs just 26%. The model's 52% sits essentially on top of the book's 50%.

• Coin flip — Clay Holmes' 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Adrian Houser has kept the first inning clean in just 36% of his 14 starts, and that's the number pulling this one toward a run. The counterweight is real, though: Brady Singer sits at 57% NRFI with four scoreless firsts in his last five, and neither offense does much early — San Francisco scores in the first just 24% of the time, Cincinnati 27%. At pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, it's a genuine 50/50.

• Coin flip — Brady Singer's 57% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 27% first-inning bats (24th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 24% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.