NRFI Results

Sandy Alcantara has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 26 starts, and Ranger Suarez isn't far behind at 76% — both are riding five straight scoreless openers. Neither offense pushes back much either: Boston plates a first-inning run in just 25% of games (23% against lefties), Miami in 29%. The model's 55% NRFI sits a hair under the book's 56%, so loanDepot park's slightly above-average run factor keeps this from being a runaway lean.

• NRFI lean — Ranger Suarez (76% NRFI) and Sandy Alcantara (85%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -156 (56% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Zack Wheeler has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 21 starts, and T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor only tightens the screws further. Seattle's offense has scored in the opening frame just 30% of the time, dropping to 28% against righties, so Wheeler's side of the ledger does most of the heavy lifting here. Gilbert's 63% NRFI rate is the softer half, which is why this leans rather than screams.

• NRFI lean — Zack Wheeler (86% NRFI) and Logan Gilbert (63%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -160 (58% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Robbie Ray has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 23 starts, including each of his last five, and he draws a Pirates lineup that plates a first-inning run just 18% of the time against left-handers. Braxton Ashcraft counters at 75% NRFI, facing a Padres offense ranked 28th in first-inning scoring at 24%. Petco's 94 run factor nudges it further — the model's 56% sits three points above the book's 53%.

• NRFI lean — Braxton Ashcraft (75% NRFI) and Robbie Ray (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 18% against left-handers.

Chase Burns has kept the first inning clean in 91% of his 23 starts, and he's drawing a Giants lineup that scores in the opening frame just 23% of the time — only 19% against righties. Carson Whisenhunt is the softer side of this, at 57% NRFI across seven starts with two clean firsts in his last five, but Oracle Park's 94 run factor helps him. Model sits at 58%, a shade past the market's 55%.

• NRFI lean — Chase Burns has worked a scoreless first in 91% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 58%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 19% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 14% against left-handers.

Kumar Rocker has kept the first frame clean in only 45% of his 22 starts, and Chicago's lineup puts a run on the board in the opening inning 31% of the time — 12th-most in baseball. Jose Urquidy is the wild card, with no starts logged this season, so there's little to go on against Texas. The model's 47% scoreless sits close to the market's 50%, so the YRFI tilt is mild.

• YRFI lean — the Chicago White Sox push a first-inning run across in 31% of games (12th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor sets a loud backdrop, and neither starter has been especially tidy out of the gate — Zebby Matthews has kept the first inning clean in just 47% of his 17 starts, with only two zeros in his last five. Minnesota's bats are the bigger lever, though: they put a run on the board in the first 34% of the time, fourth-most in the majors. The model's 38% scoreless sits under the market's 43%.

• YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Minnesota Twins score early in 34% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +118 (43% implied); the model has it 38%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.