NRFI Results

Kyle Leahy has kept the first inning clean in 87% of his 23 starts, and Cristopher Sanchez isn't far behind at 79% — both are riding five straight scoreless openers. The counterweight: Philadelphia plates a first-inning run in 33% of games (6th-most in MLB), St. Louis in 32%, and Citizens Bank Park nudges offense up at a 102 run factor. The model's 52% scoreless sits just under the book's 54%, so there's no real separation here.

• Coin flip — Kyle Leahy's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Nick Martinez has kept the first frame clean in 83% of his 23 starts, and he draws a Baltimore lineup that puts a run on the board in the opening inning just 25% of the time — 27th in MLB. The counterweight is Shane Baz, whose 63% NRFI rate is closer to ordinary against a Rays offense that ranks 8th in first-inning scoring. Camden Yards plays neutral, and at 51% the model sits right on top of the market's 50%.

• Coin flip — Nick Martinez's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Janson Junk has kept the opening frame clean in 83% of his 18 starts, including all five of his last — a genuine anchor for the under. The catch is Jackson Kent, whose two-start sample tells us next to nothing, and Washington's bats plate a first-inning run 32% of the time, seventh-most in MLB. That tension leaves the model at 50%, essentially even with the book's implied 52%.

• Coin flip — Janson Junk's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Brady Basso has kept the first frame clean in both of his starts, and Cristian Javier has done it in five of six — on paper, that's a tidy NRFI setup at Daikin Park, a neutral run environment. The catch is Basso's two-start sample tells you almost nothing yet, and Houston plates a first-inning run in 33% of games, fifth-most in the majors. Call it a genuine 50/50, with the book's 7% NRFI number looking wildly out of step.

• Coin flip — Cristian Javier's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 33% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -4 (7% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Daniel Lynch IV has kept the first inning clean in two of his three starts, but three starts isn't much to lean on — and Jacob Waguespack hasn't made one yet this season, so Detroit's side of the matchup is essentially a blank slate. The Tigers plate a first-inning run 33% of the time, fourth-most in MLB, though only 29% against lefties. At 48% scoreless in a slightly run-friendly Kauffman, it's a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Daniel Lynch IV's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 33% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108.5 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Nolan McLean has kept the first inning clean in 75% of his 24 starts, and he's facing a Mets-opposing White Sox lineup that scores in the opening frame just 29% of the time against righties. Sean Newcomb is 3-for-3 on scoreless firsts, though three starts is thin evidence to lean on. The model sees 53% scoreless against a 38% implied number — a genuine coin flip with the edge tilted toward quiet.

• Coin flip — Sean Newcomb's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -133.5 (38% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Cal Quantrill has kept the first inning clean in 89% of his nine starts and all five of his last, and Yusei Kikuchi isn't far behind at 83% — yet the model still lands at 52% scoreless. The reason is the Angels, who plate a first-inning run in 34% of their games, the highest rate in MLB, and 35% against righties. Pitcher form versus the league's hottest opening bats, in a park that suppresses runs slightly (94).

• Coin flip — Cal Quantrill's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -117 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, the most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Lake Bachar has kept the first inning clean in four of his last five and 80% of his starts overall, but that's a five-start sample against a Dodgers lineup that plates a first-inning run 32% of the time — ninth-most in MLB. Blake Snell counters with 67% NRFI in three outings, and Pittsburgh has scratched across an opening run just 19% of the time versus lefties. At 48% scoreless in a slightly run-friendly Dodger Stadium, it's essentially a toss-up.

• Coin flip — Lake Bachar's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 32% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.

Shane Drohan has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 14 starts, which is the loudest number on the board — but Tyler Mahle sits at just 60% across 20 outings, and that gap is what drags this toward a true toss-up. Neither offense is scary early, with Milwaukee plating a first-inning run in 28% of games and Atlanta 30%. The model's 51% actually sits under the book's implied 55%.

• Coin flip — Shane Drohan's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -138 (55% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.